Alternate Run Line Study

[BetHalfLines]

7/2 Lines (cont.)

Only 2 early games posted so far...

Yesterday's Record: 5-10; -105

Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -555 ROI: -9.25%

Away Teams: 18-33; +0; 0%

Away
Was +220
Det +175
Oak +185
Phi +190
Pit +190
LAD +150
NYM +160
SDG +200
Mil +155
Tex +220
KC +180
Bos +195
Home Teams: 6-18; -555; -23.125%

Home
SF +220
CWS +190
Sea +200

 

[BetHalfLines]

7/2 Results

Yesterday's Record: 4-11; -370

Overall Record: 23-52 W/L: -925 ROI: -12.33%

Away Teams: 18-33; -370

Away
Was +220 loss
Det +175 loss
Oak +185 loss
Phi +190 win
Pit +190 win
LAD +150 win
NYM +160 loss
SDG +200 loss
Mil +155 loss
Tex +220 loss
KC +180 loss
Bos +195 loss

Home Teams: 7-20; -555

Home
SF +220 loss
CWS +190 loss
Sea +200 win

So...another losing day, but some teams are starting to at least show some forms of trends both betting against and betting with. Hopefully another two weeks will make things a little easier to see.

 

[BetHalfLines]

7/3 Lines

Yesterday's Record: 4-11; -370

Overall Record: 23-52 W/L: -925 ROI: -12.33%

Away Teams: 18-33; -370

Away
Mil +220
Cubs +205
Was +200
Fla +170
NYM +165
Bos +185
KC +190
Oak +190

Home Teams: 7-20; -555

Home
Hou +220
Atl +190
Sea +220

 

[jessekidd13]

I think it was mentioned a little before, but if you have time, you may want to edit the Away teams for teams in either:

1.) Top 10 of overall runs scored
2.) Top 10 of games in which they score over 5 runs

I would think you could use season stats. You could use a shorter duration(last month or something), but I think it may make your sample size too small to be significant, at least on the >5 runs category.

You need teams with a tendency to explode offensively.

Jesse

 

[jessekidd13]

Bet,

I'm working with some of these numbers, and may have some interesting results, which I'd be happy to share with you once I work it out. I am missing one piece of information, which I was hoping you could help me with.

Before I backlog closing lines, I wanted to get an estimate of what the average line of the away ARL team was. Can you (or anyone who is interested) check your data and get back to me? My eyeball estimate is around +185, but I don't know if this is accurate.

Jesse

 

[BetHalfLines]

Response

To the two that asked questions above.

I haven't worked out an average line yet, as I am inputting most of the data into a spreadsheet, but haven't had the time to set it up exactly how I want it...I keep making small changes.. My goal is to set it up so all I have to do is import the ML, RL, O/U, ARL and final score, and it should be able to track everything record-wise in most situations. It'll probably take me a little while as I'm heading out now for the holiday weekend. I have one for NFL first halves that I love, so I'm just trying to adjust it for simplicity sake. If you guys need line numbers, ML, RL or O/U, or anything not posted in the thread, let me know. I probably have it since I started.

Overall, I definitely am going to have to weed teams out. Probably only play high scoring teams, against pitchers with a high ERA...or off a straight up loss etc. I haven't exactly found a "formula" yet. I need some more data...

If anyone knows where I can find ARL closing lines from earlier in the season, let me know. Thanks.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Ohh...and I'm all for sharing notes. If we can iron something out that wins at least some money with a decent ROI, I'm sure everyone will be happy.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Instead of looking at the whole card each day I'd like to know how many of the underdogs that actually win cover the Alt. RL.

Maybe you can break that into a separate category. I have hit some nice Alt. RL plays this year, but also lost some by the hook like the Rangers game Tuesday.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Just looked at some minor trends. Sea is 4-2 over this stretch, at +225 or so on average (guestimate, I didn't look exactly)...thats some pretty good cash.

 

[BetHalfLines]

2:10 PM
8973 KAN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B BANNISTER-R -1½+205

4:05 PM
8975 OAK 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J BLANTON-R -1½+215



4:10 PM
8977 CLE 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: P BYRD-R -1½+185


6:05 PM
8979 TOR 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: A BURNETT -R -1½+165

 

[BetHalfLines]

11:05 AM
8953 PIT 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: GORZELANNY-L -1½+280


8954 MIL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B SHEETS-R +1½-350


1:05 PM
8955 LAD 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D LOWE-R -1½+145


8956 SFO 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J SANCHEZ-L +1½-175


4:05 PM
8957 NYM 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: JO SANTANA-L +1½-280


8958 PHI 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J HAPP-L -1½+220


4:35 PM
8959 HOU 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B MOEHLER-R -1½+235


8960 ATL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: T HUDSON-R +1½-295


5:05 PM
8961 FLA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: S OLSEN-L -1½+170


8962 COL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: G REYNOLDS-R +1½-210


5:15 PM
8963 CUB 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: C ZAMBRANO-R +1½-250


8964 STL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B LOOPER-R -1½+200


6:40 PM
8965 SDG 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: C BAEK-R -1½+280


8966 ARI 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D HAREN-R +1½-340


1:10 PM
8969 DET 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: K ROGERS-L -1½+190


8970 SEA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: E BEDARD-L +1½-240


1:35 PM
8971 TEX 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: V PADILLA-R -1½+185


8972 BAL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J GUTHRIE-R +1½-225


2:10 PM
8973 KAN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B BANNISTER-R -1½+205


8974 TAM 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: E JACKSON-R +1½-255


4:05 PM
8975 OAK 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J BLANTON-R -1½+215


8976 CWS 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: M BUEHRLE-L +1½-265


4:10 PM
8977 CLE 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: P BYRD-R -1½+185


8978 MIN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: L HERNANDEZ-R +1½-225


6:05 PM
8979 TOR 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: A BURNETT -R -1½+165


8980 LAA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: JER WEAVER-R +1½-205

NYY +185
Was +195

 

[BetHalfLines]

7/5 Lines

MLB-ALTERN RUNLINES
MLB-ALTERN RUNLINES - Jul 05
NATIONAL LEAGUE $500 LIMIT
12:55 PM
8901 CUB 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: T LILLY-L -1½+155


8902 STL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: K LOHSE-R +1½-185


4:05 PM
8903 NYM 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J MAINE-R -1½+155


8904 PHI 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J MOYER-L +1½-185


4:05 PM
8905 PIT 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: P MAHOLM-L -1½+200


8906 MIL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D BUSH-R +1½-250


4:10 PM
8907 HOU 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: C SAMPSON-R -1½+205


8908 ATL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: JJ REYES-L +1½-255


4:10 PM
8909 WAS 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: T REDDING-R -1½+190


8910 CIN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J FOGG-R +1½-240


5:05 PM
8911 FLA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: R TUCKER-R -1½+190


8912 COL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: DE LA ROSA-L +1½-240


5:10 PM
8913 SDG 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J PEAVY-R +1½-245


8914 ARI 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D DAVIS-L -1½+195


6:05 PM
8915 LAD 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: C PARK-R +1½-270


8916 SFO 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B ZITO-L -1½+220


AMERICAN LEAGUE $500 LIMIT
12:55 PM
8917 BOS 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: MASTERSON-R -1½+190


8918 NYY 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: M MUSSINA-R +1½-230


4:05 PM
8919 TEX 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: E HURLEY-R -1½+155


8920 BAL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: B BURRES-L +1½-185


4:05 PM
8921 OAK 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: G SMITH-L -1½+190


8922 CWS 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: G FLOYD-R +1½-240


4:10 PM
8923 KAN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: Z GREINKE-R -1½+195


8924 TAM 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: SONNANSTINE-R +1½-245


4:10 PM
8925 CLE 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: A LAFFEY-L -1½+190


8926 MIN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: K SLOWEY-R +1½-240


6:05 PM
8927 TOR 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: R HALLADAY-R -1½+195


8928 LAA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J LACKEY-R +1½-245


7:10 PM
8929 DET 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: A GALARRAGA-R +1½-280


8930 SEA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: R DICKEY -R -1½+220

 

[BetHalfLines]

7/3-7/5 Results

Home from vacation and will catch up below...

Overall Record: 36-83 W/L: -1815 ROI: -15.25%

Away: 28-55; -680
Home 8-28; -1135

7/3

Away
Mil +220 loss
Cubs +205 loss
Was +200 loss
Fla +170 loss
NYM +165 win
Bos +185 win
KC +190 win
Oak +190 loss


Home
Hou +220 loss
Atl +190 loss
Sea +220 loss

7/4

Away
Was +195 loss
Pit +280 loss
LAD +145 win
Hou +235 loss
Fla +170 loss
SDG +280 win
Det +190 loss
Tex +185 loss
KC +205 loss
Oak +215 win
Cle +185 loss
Tor +165 loss


Home
Phi +220 loss
Stl +200 loss
NYY +185 loss

7/5

Away
Cubs +155 loss
NYM +155 win
Pit +200 loss
Hou +205 win
Was +190 loss
Fla +190 loss
Bos +190 loss
Tex +155 win
Oak +190 loss
KC +195 loss
Cle +190 loss
Tor +195 win

Home
Ari +195 loss
SF +220 win
Sea +220 loss

Playing everything will obviously lose you a lot of money quickly. Trying to find the right teams to play in the right situations.

 

[BetHalfLines]

7/6 Lines

Overall Record: 36-83 W/L: -1815 ROI: -15.25%

Away: 28-55; -680
Home 8-28; -1135

Away
Was +280
NYM +165
Hou +180
Pit +205
Fla +215
Cub +175
LAD +180
SDG +200
Tex +150
KC +280
Oak +160
Tor +175
Bos +210

Home
Min +210
Sea +185

 

[BetHalfLines]

4:05 PM
8901 HOU 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: RU HERNANDEZ-R -1½+185


8902 PIT 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: DUMATRAIT-L +1½-235


4:05 PM
8903 NYM 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: P MARTINEZ-R -1½+185


8904 PHI 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: A EATON-R +1½-225


5:05 PM
8905 COL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: U JIMENEZ-R -1½+190


8906 MIL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: S MCCLUNG-R +1½-240


7:05 PM
8907 FLA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: R NOLASCO-R -1½+165


8908 SDG 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: G MADDUX-R +1½-205


7:10 PM
8909 ATL 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J CAMPILLO-R -1½+180


8910 LAD 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: H KURODA-R +1½-220


4:05 PM
8913 MIN 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: S BAKER-R -1½+220


8914 BOS 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D MATSUZAKA-R +1½-270


5:05 PM
8915 LAA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: E SANTANA-R +1½-270


8916 TEX 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: L MENDOZA-R -1½+220


7:05 PM
8917 SEA 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: J WASHBURN-L -1½+225


8918 OAK 1½ RUNS, Pitcher: D EVELAND-L +1½-285


MLB- 2½ RUNLINES
MLB- 2½ RUNLINES - Jul 07
NATIONAL LEAGUE $500 LIMIT
4:05 PM
9901 HOU 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: RU HERNANDEZ-R +2½-270


9902 PIT 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: DUMATRAIT-L -2½+220


4:05 PM
9903 NYM 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: P MARTINEZ-R +2½-270


9904 PHI 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: A EATON-R -2½+220


5:05 PM
9905 COL 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: U JIMENEZ-R +2½-280


9906 MIL 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: S MCCLUNG-R -2½+220


7:05 PM
9907 FLA 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: R NOLASCO-R +2½-325


9908 SDG 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: G MADDUX-R -2½+265


7:10 PM
9909 ATL 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: J CAMPILLO-R +2½-300


9910 LAD 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: H KURODA-R -2½+240


4:05 PM
9913 MIN 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: S BAKER-R +2½-220


9914 BOS 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: D MATSUZAKA-R -2½+180


5:05 PM
9915 LAA 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: E SANTANA-R -2½+160


9916 TEX 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: L MENDOZA-R +2½-200


7:05 PM
9917 SEA 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: J WASHBURN-L +2½-270


9918 OAK 2½ RUNS, Pitcher: D EVELAND-L -2½+220

 

[BetHalfLines]

Forgot...

KC -1.5 +300 for today (won actually)