Ajax - Feyenoord (Sunday Feb 15th)

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In about 11 hours and 30something minutes the most important football/soccer game in the Netherlands will take place again. The most important? Yes, the most important... But, isn't Ajax only in 3rd place with a lot of points behind AZ Alkmaar? Yes they are... And isn't Feyenoord all the way down in the rankings struggling at the 12th position? Yes they are, but still this game in Amsterdam is the most important game of the whole season, together of course with the game played earlier in the season in Rotterdam, ending in a 2-2 draw.

These two teams, with all respect for PSV and the current streak of AZ are the teams historically in the Netherlands and will always be. They have the largest amount of fans and are each others arch rivals. Even if this game would be played at the lowest possible level this one will still be a classic. In fact, earlier this week the youth teams of both clubs faced each other in Rotterdam. After 75 minutes Ajax scored 0-1 out of a penalty and a short while after that a Feyenoord player got the red card. Fans (well can you really name them like that?) then started chanting and threw some fireworks on the pitch, causing the game to be suspended.

Anyways, that's just some background information going into the game. Both teams are struggling big time this season, but Ajax is still in 3rd position in the league. Until a couple of weeks ago they were still battling for the Championship, but after 3 losses and a draw in the last couple of weeks no one still believes in their chances to become Champion this season. Feyenoord on the other hand are in their worst season of their history. Both teams have never been relegated out of the highest league and Feyenoord won't relegate this season either, but... they have never been this close to relegation.

Both teams would like give their terrible season a little boost somehow by winning this clash. Like said Ajax had 3 losses and a draw in their last four games, which would be another reason to be determined to score, on the other hand these performances didn't give them a lot of self confidence and trust me, they all knew this game vs Feyenoord was coming up.
Feyenoord on the other hand are slightly getting in better form. They have been facing TONS of injuries all season long and there are still more than 10 players injured at the moment. After coach Verbeek was fired out of the players' will performances didn't change positively with 2 losses and a draw. Afterwards they lost again against NEC (managed by their new manager for next season Mario Been), but only lost due to a goal in the very last minute of injury time. This game was followed by a city derby win over Sparta and a solid draw against well playing side FC Groningen. It's still not superb, but thy are on the better track now I suppose. Also the return of Leo Beenhakker to Rotterdam as an advizer for the remainder of the season will be an inspiration for the players.

All together this makes this game VERY hard to predict. Personally I would go for either Ajax or a draw, but I'm not touching this game for those kind of bets. However I'm going to show you why I am going to bet on this game for the over.

Both teams are and always have been pretty solid over teams. This season Ajax is on 64% over and Feyenoord at 55%. Ajax at home is 55% over and Feyenoord on the road goes over for 50%. Ajax scores an average of 2.27 goals in their home games, while Feyenoord scores an average of 1 goal away. Not convinced yet right? Well, here it goes... I already said the last game in Rotterdam ended in 2-2. Please take a look at the other last games between them.

17-04-2005 Feyenoord-Ajax 2-3
28-08-2005 Ajax-Feyenoord 1-2
05-02-2006 Feyenoord-Ajax 3-2
20-04-2006 Ajax-Feyenoord 3-0
23-04-2006 Feyenoord-Ajax 2-4
22-10-2006 Feyenoord-Ajax 0-4
04-02-2007 Ajax-Feyenoord 4-1
11-11-2007 Feyenoord-Ajax 2-2
03-02-2008 Ajax-Feyenoord 3-0
21-09-2008 Feyenoord-Ajax 2-2

As you can see there is always a lot of goals in this game and I expect no change this season. Both teams have extremely good strikers and weaker defences. Ajax will compete with Luis Suarez and have scoring midfielders in Emanuelson, Sulejmani and ex Feyenoord player Leonardo, while defences should always be aware of the goalscoring skills of Feyenoord's Roy Makaay, Diego Biseswar, Jon Dahl Tomasson and the unexpecting Georginio Wijnaldum.

My bet is : 20 dollars on the over 2.5 and 10 on the over 3.5

I'll leave you with a link to a movie in which you will see former Feyenoord stars Robin van Persie, Dirk Kuyt, Bona + Salomon Kalou and Julio Cruz scoring goals against Ajax in Amsterdam.

http://streams.planet.nl/cgi-bin/reflector.cgi?type=wmv&stream=20090213_fey_tv_goals&dir=kpnmedia2
 

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:toast:cheers mate, may they score a lot of goals. A Feyenoord win would be a bonus :103631605
 

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i have over 3 -135... what kind of price are you taking for an over 2.6? must be -200
 

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Thanks for the support guys.

rolltide, I have them at 1.60 @ over 2.5 and 3.20 @ over 3.5
 

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you know what, I was just capping this game (trying to dig myself out of a small hole from today) I loved the over immediately, but what worries me a bit is that Ajax has played pretty good defensively at home, conceding only 7 goals in 11 games.

I still like the over, but this worries me a tad.
 

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Of which 3 were kicked in during their last 2 home matches against Heerenveen and Heracles. I see your point, but I believe the over is still safe. Defence doesn't really matter in these kind of games. Johan Cruyff once said: You have to score more goals than your opponent to win a game.
 

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Sorry guys I failed this one, I feel double kicked in my ass with the Feyenoord loss as well :(
Ajax should have scored at least 3 themselves though, they had many opportunities and hit the post a couple of times. Feyenoord was unable to do anything today, disappointing for sure.
 

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