The Standard: 200 units
Yesterday: 2-3, -0.70 units
Currently: -91.15 units
Units remaining: 291.15
July +28.9 units
Much better than June. Let's see how August treats. Need to get hot and finish strong.
8/1/09
$500 Chicago/Florida Over 8.5
This is one of the higher ranked totals for today. The Cubs and Marlins have both been pretty solid offensively of late. They have also hit 9 of 12 overs when playing in Florida heading into this series. The Cubs will have big Z, Carlos Zambrano going for the Cubs while the Marlins send Badenhop to the hill. Zambranos last 6 against Florida have gone over and 8 of his last 10. Badenhop has never faced the Cubs but will give up 3-4 in this one. Look for a minimum of 9 but more like 10-11 in this one.
$300 LA Angels/Minnesota Under 10
An array of totals today, mostly seeing under the totals. The Angels and Minnesota should cruise to an under today. Saunders faces Swarzak. Swarzak faced the Angels already this season allowing just 1 ER over nearly 7 innings. Saunders has had success in LA allowing just 2 ERs in 15 innings over the last 2 seasons. Saunders has struggled lately but will go inning for inning with Swarzak in what looks to be a solid under wager. Look for 5-7 in this one staying under the already lowered total.
$200 Tampa Bay -1.5(-135)
By my calculations the Rays should be able to easily dispose of the slumping Royals. I predict a 6-1 or 6-2 final in this one. The Rays have been just too good of late to start losing home games against weak opponents. They are slowly getting back into the race for another division title. Jeff Niemann will start for Tampa. He is 2-1 in his last 3 with a 2.66 ERA while his opponent, Bruce Chen shows an 0-2 with a 6.23 in his last 3. Chen is 0-5 overall and the Royals have won just one game out of his 6 starts. Niemann is on the bounceback, and has two shutout performances in his last 3 at home.
$200 Seattle/Texas Under 8.5
Both starters slated to go today have really been on fire. Hernandez will face Tommy Hunter in Texas. It has already been documented that the Rangers are the best under team in the league. Seemingly this total is on the move downward so if you are going to play it get it in asap. I dont think the move will matter much as these starters prove they can keep this one at a 3-2 game. Hunter has a 0.95 ERA in his last 3 and shows a 3-1 home mark with a 2.40 ERA. He shut out Seattle over 6 innings in his last meeting with them. Opponents are averaging 2 runs per contest in his outings. Look for the dominant pitching to continue in this one.
$200 Toronto/Oakland Under 9
Brett Cecil will be the story in this one. As we keep an eye on this ace right now, he is showing solid numbers of late going 2-0 in his last 3, with a 0.45 ERA. He leads the league in ERA over his last 3 starts. Oakland should struggle scoring in this one. Cecil has shut down Oakland previously over 8 innings allowing none, just 5 hits and 6 Ks. Cahill will counter Cecil, and he has struggled. He allowed 6 ERs in his last outing but has pitched pretty well at home overall. Jays are without Rolen, and Holliday has been removed. Two big hitters out of these line-ups, with these starters make for a good under play. Cahill allowed just 2 ERs in his previous start vs. Jays. Look for a 4-2 final at best here.
$200 Milwaukee/San Diego Over 8
The oddsmakers must know something is up with this one. Besides for the fact that Richard will make his debut for San Diego, I just dont have any confidence in Burns or what will even be close to a total of 8 runs. Burns and the Brewers have allowed roughly 7 runs per game over his 5 starts. Three of those starts were finals of double digits while 2 were 9 run finals. All of those games would beat an over 8 regardless. Burns has pitched to the over in 4 of his 5. The only under was set at 10.5 runs. Richard will pitch better facing an NL line-up but the Brewers put up 7 runs in his start against them this year. He has pitched 16 innings and 2 ERs allowed in his last 2, but even with that kind of performance it will likely be a lopsided final still going over the total. Look for 10-12 here.
Yesterday: 2-3, -0.70 units
Currently: -91.15 units
Units remaining: 291.15
July +28.9 units
Much better than June. Let's see how August treats. Need to get hot and finish strong.
8/1/09
$500 Chicago/Florida Over 8.5
This is one of the higher ranked totals for today. The Cubs and Marlins have both been pretty solid offensively of late. They have also hit 9 of 12 overs when playing in Florida heading into this series. The Cubs will have big Z, Carlos Zambrano going for the Cubs while the Marlins send Badenhop to the hill. Zambranos last 6 against Florida have gone over and 8 of his last 10. Badenhop has never faced the Cubs but will give up 3-4 in this one. Look for a minimum of 9 but more like 10-11 in this one.
$300 LA Angels/Minnesota Under 10
An array of totals today, mostly seeing under the totals. The Angels and Minnesota should cruise to an under today. Saunders faces Swarzak. Swarzak faced the Angels already this season allowing just 1 ER over nearly 7 innings. Saunders has had success in LA allowing just 2 ERs in 15 innings over the last 2 seasons. Saunders has struggled lately but will go inning for inning with Swarzak in what looks to be a solid under wager. Look for 5-7 in this one staying under the already lowered total.
$200 Tampa Bay -1.5(-135)
By my calculations the Rays should be able to easily dispose of the slumping Royals. I predict a 6-1 or 6-2 final in this one. The Rays have been just too good of late to start losing home games against weak opponents. They are slowly getting back into the race for another division title. Jeff Niemann will start for Tampa. He is 2-1 in his last 3 with a 2.66 ERA while his opponent, Bruce Chen shows an 0-2 with a 6.23 in his last 3. Chen is 0-5 overall and the Royals have won just one game out of his 6 starts. Niemann is on the bounceback, and has two shutout performances in his last 3 at home.
$200 Seattle/Texas Under 8.5
Both starters slated to go today have really been on fire. Hernandez will face Tommy Hunter in Texas. It has already been documented that the Rangers are the best under team in the league. Seemingly this total is on the move downward so if you are going to play it get it in asap. I dont think the move will matter much as these starters prove they can keep this one at a 3-2 game. Hunter has a 0.95 ERA in his last 3 and shows a 3-1 home mark with a 2.40 ERA. He shut out Seattle over 6 innings in his last meeting with them. Opponents are averaging 2 runs per contest in his outings. Look for the dominant pitching to continue in this one.
$200 Toronto/Oakland Under 9
Brett Cecil will be the story in this one. As we keep an eye on this ace right now, he is showing solid numbers of late going 2-0 in his last 3, with a 0.45 ERA. He leads the league in ERA over his last 3 starts. Oakland should struggle scoring in this one. Cecil has shut down Oakland previously over 8 innings allowing none, just 5 hits and 6 Ks. Cahill will counter Cecil, and he has struggled. He allowed 6 ERs in his last outing but has pitched pretty well at home overall. Jays are without Rolen, and Holliday has been removed. Two big hitters out of these line-ups, with these starters make for a good under play. Cahill allowed just 2 ERs in his previous start vs. Jays. Look for a 4-2 final at best here.
$200 Milwaukee/San Diego Over 8
The oddsmakers must know something is up with this one. Besides for the fact that Richard will make his debut for San Diego, I just dont have any confidence in Burns or what will even be close to a total of 8 runs. Burns and the Brewers have allowed roughly 7 runs per game over his 5 starts. Three of those starts were finals of double digits while 2 were 9 run finals. All of those games would beat an over 8 regardless. Burns has pitched to the over in 4 of his 5. The only under was set at 10.5 runs. Richard will pitch better facing an NL line-up but the Brewers put up 7 runs in his start against them this year. He has pitched 16 innings and 2 ERs allowed in his last 2, but even with that kind of performance it will likely be a lopsided final still going over the total. Look for 10-12 here.
