After a home sweep theory...2009

[Leatherballs]

Good shit. I'm decent with excel, but certainly not that good. I assume it would be difficult to sort by teams that are over .500 at that point of the chase...but could be something to consider.

Finally...try a one game chase if you still have the excel sheet...as in simply the game after the sweep. How does that turn out?

Thanks in advance.

Interested to see how a home team chase would have benefited YTD. in winning units since you have only had 2 teams to play this year thus far and one pending now with ATL.

I played Wash. last night so thanks for that one, and have been following you and the thread since you started it. I am sure the theory has its good years and bad years so let this year be a good one!

Thanks for your contributions to the forum

 

[DaNewYawka]

I did some research on last years numbers. Any home team that has lost 3 games in a row at home and were at least -110 in all those games, and had a winning percentage of at least .470, bet them to win their next home game. Last season this system was 37-0 with only one game going to a game 4. Toronto in mid april.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Florida got swept, they will become a play on May 4th. Other potentials depending on results today are Houston, LAA, Colorado, Arizona and Baltimore. Atlanta starts a series at home tomorrow. I will update later.

Good stats on last year with regards to winning percentage. I'll certainly keep that in mind.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Play Today with Line 4/27

Series Record: 2-0, +200
Overall Record: 2-0, +200
ROI = 125% (due to + money and two 1st game wins)

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risk $141: to win $100 (Atl 9-9)
5/4, Fla (ML pending), 1st game (awaiting next home series)

There have been plenty of reasons posted in this thread why not to play this system. There have also been a few reasons to play the system within limitation. I think limiting plays to teams that are at least 0.400 AFTER the sweep, deserve a play. There was a nice post about limiting it to teams that are at least -110, and better than .470. Personally, I will also keep track using the 0.400 rule from now on (in addition to 1, 2, 3 game chases). I will post the record to the right at the beginning of the chase. We had a lot of potential plays last night, but all the teams ended up winning. Right now, there is one pending on Fla when they return home on May 4th.

Ensignlee was kind enough to post my spreadsheets online. Thanks again. The links are pasted below. They are broken down by a 1 game, 2 game and 3 game chase. Also, two of them are after May 1st only, as I discussed much earlier in the thread. The sheets contain all the plays and MLs. There is one "mistake" though that will benefit the system and yield a few extra wins. If a team gets swept, and the spreadsheet says it didn't win until its 4th game later, that means the team got swept again. So, you would actually start a new chase which would give you a win on the 1st game of that chase...something to consider, but those plays aren't added to the spreadsheets. Finally, I'm not sure what order they're in, but you can figure it out by the amount of MLs posted and the dates. Good Luck tonight.

http://www.50plus50.com/therx/one.xls
http://www.50plus50.com/therx/two.xls
http://www.50plus50.com/therx/three.xls
http://www.50plus50.com/therx/four.xls
http://www.50plus50.com/therx/five.xls

 

[BetHalfLines]

2nd Game

Series Record: 2-0, +200
Overall Record: 2-1, +59

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risk $141: to win $100, lost $141 (Atl 9-9)
4/28, Atl +107, 2nd game, Risk $225.23 to win $241, pending
5/4, Fla (ML pending), 1st game (awaiting next home series)

2nd game of the chase on Atl tonight. Good Luck.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series Record: 3-0, +300
Overall Record: 3-1, +300
ROI: 57% (Risked $526.48: won $300)

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risked $141: lost $141, 1st loss (Atl 9-9)
4/28, Atl +107, 2nd game, Risked $225.23: won $241, SERIES WIN
5/4, Fla (ML pending), 1st game (awaiting next home series)

Winner on Atl last night. All records above updated. We are waiting for another home sweep or the pending Fla play.

 

[BetHalfLines]

5/4

Series Record: 3-0, +300
Overall Record: 3-1, +300
ROI: 57% (Risked $526.48: won $300)

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risked $141: lost $141, 1st loss (Atl 9-9)
4/28, Atl +107, 2nd game, Risked $225.23: won $241, SERIES WIN
5/4, Fla -155, 1st game, Risking $155: to win $100 (pending) (Fla 14-11)

The Florida chase begins tonight. No other home sweeps have happened to date. Good Luck tonight.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series Record: 4-0, +400
Overall Record: 4-1, +400
ROI: 58.7% (Risked $681.48: won $400)

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risked $141: lost $141, 1st loss (Atl 9-9)
4/28, Atl +107, 2nd game, Risked $225.23: won $241, SERIES WIN
5/4, Fla -155, 1st game, Risked $155: won $100, SERIES WIN (Fla 14-11)

Florida with an extra-inning win last night. All records above updated with no pending plays.

 

[BetHalfLines]

5/11 Play

Play tonight...

5/11, CWS -140, 1st game Risking $140: to win $100, pending (CWS 14-16)

See previous post for up-to-date series records. Good Luck.

 

[lefty357]

i dont get how this is a play ws werent sweeped

 

[TheJackal]

It's also not a home game for CWS.

 

[SpartyCj]

yea and they are on the road arent they? lol

 

[SpartyCj]

and they are losing 2-0...

 

[fadethepublic1]

CLEVELAND was/is the play.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Series Record: 5-0, +500
Overall Record: 5-1, +500
ROI: 60.9% (Risked $821.48: won $500)

Series Plays
4/13, Oak +130, 1st game Risked $76.92: won $100, SERIES WIN (Oak 2-4)
4/20, Was +120, 1st game, Risked $83.33: won $100, SERIES WIN (Was 1-10)
4/27, Atl -141, 1st game, Risked $141: lost $141, 1st loss (Atl 9-9)
4/28, Atl +107, 2nd game, Risked $225.23: won $241, SERIES WIN
5/4, Fla -155, 1st game, Risked $155: won $100, SERIES WIN (Fla 14-11)
5/11, Cle -140, 1st game, Risked $140: won $100, SERIES WIN (Cle 11-21)

So, I came on here today only to find out that I typed CWS as the play last night. While I understand that some of you may have thought CWS was the play, it made no sense with regards to the system as most of you pointed out. "Fadethepublic1" was correct in saying Cle is/was the play.

I have graded this as a win, because I think its fair to see that Cle was obviously the play as they were off a home sweep, and clearly the home team in the game. I even posted the correct line for Cle that I bet at -140. There is no way anyone could have thought CWS was -140 at any point during the day.

I am neither trying to deceive nor boost my record, but will keep this as a 'system' win. I am simply trying to track this system for the year, and it would be unfair to mark it as a loss because I was in a hurry and mistyped. If you have an issue with this, so be it. I would hope you are researching these plays at least a little before betting them.

That said, I have noticed another trend that made money last year. I only backtested this one year, so if you find that it doesn't work in the long term, please post your info. So far, system is 3 series wins and 1 series lost. Please note, this is an entire series lost, and the system is 'down' money right now. You chase the road team after they complete a sweep as the road team for 3 games in their next road series as long as their record is greater than 0.500 when beginning the chase. For example, Det just swept Cle (we play Cle in the next home series), AND you are playing Det in their next road series. Their next road series begins tonight. I would recommend chasing this 'road' example for only half of the home sweep theory. I will be playing them to win $50. I am doing this because a lot of the chases go a full 3 games. This is the ONLY time road teams will be mentioned. Damn, thats a long post. Good Luck.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Sf -110, Risk 110 to win 100 is a play today

Was could have been a play today, but with the day/night doubleheader, I didn't know how to count it. Plus, I forgot to post it.

 

[hustlehard]

why is sf a play? theyre still in the same series with the mets

 

[1958]

Sf -110, Risk 110 to win 100 is a play today

Was could have been a play today, but with the day/night doubleheader, I didn't know how to count it. Plus, I forgot to post it.

in case WAS loses tonite (seems so) is there a play tomorrow against pitt ? or is this one fourth game in the phillies series a different thing? very confusing .... rgrds,

 

[BetHalfLines]

in case WAS loses tonite (seems so) is there a play tomorrow against pitt ? or is this one fourth game in the phillies series a different thing? very confusing .... rgrds,

Yes, I'll start a Was chase tomorrow. They were swept either way you count it. One game was a make up game, thats why I said I didn't know how to use it, b/c it was a doubleheader. Either way, we will start chasing them tomorrow.

 

[1958]

Yes, I'll start a Was chase tomorrow. They were swept either way you count it. One game was a make up game, thats why I said I didn't know how to use it, b/c it was a doubleheader. Either way, we will start chasing them tomorrow.

Sounds interesting to chase WAS with a young guy playing for the first time (Ross Detwiler), but it will be fun, I'll go for it.