Advantage play at craps?

[stew]

Next question for David Matthews:
I question your statement, "By the way, the best bet in the house for any non-professional gambler is blackjack with basic strategy. Craps is well behind that."

I did a search of blackjack and it is difficult to find the house edge for blackjack. I did see a site for your boss, Stanford Wong, who is some kinda BJ expert, so I will defer to your knowledge. I realize it is more difficult to quantify the house edge in BJ, where the house edge is primarily based on drawing last and the player's strategy affects the house edge greatly, than in craps, where everything is based on mathematical probabilities. But I did manage to find this kernel of knowledge (which you may or may not agree with) amongst the chaff.

"If you play blackjack with poor strategy or instinct, you give the casino an advantage of over 5%"

That is from one of the blackjack gambling sites, I believe it was sportsbetting.com, and I will not argue with you that the house edge can not be lowered by the player's strategy. But it takes a lotta strategy to lower the house edge on BJ to the .23% house edge on properly played craps. And no matter how much you lower the house edge by expert strategy, your statement that the house edge on craps is well behind that, is mathematically impossible. Let's assume that you can lower the house edge on BJ to .1%, (which I don't believe is possible but I won't argue with you because you're the expert), that still wouldn't make the house edge of .23% on properly played craps, well behind it!
My point is that craps is a simple game...you play the line and take all the odds the casino will let you. The odds bet behind the line in craps is the best bet in all of gambling, there is no bet in BJ to compare with it. Or you can study various BJ strategies, like your boss's Stanford Wong, and play BJ, but I don't believe you will ever get a lower house edge in BJ than you will get in craps.

 

[jateeluv]

The biggest advantage and often the most overlooked advantage the casino has over any player is that the casino has an unlimited bankroll in theory.

This means that over time the casino can withstand any big run a player makes in any game. A player does not have this advantage.

 

[ETOUQ]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 3 Card Poker can be beaten if you can see one of the dealer's cards. Many dealers are sloppy and I've found many where I can view the card. You can get a 3.5% advantage if you know one of the dealer's cards and modify your strategy appropriately.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

David, I couldn't agree more. There is this old guy I play holdem poker with at the casino. And since I can see his cards since he holds them so far away to see them, I kick his ass.

I am glad I am not the only one who cheats to get an edge. LOL

 

[drunkguy]

Originally posted by stew:

I did a search of blackjack and it is difficult to find the house edge for blackjack.

House advantage for AC version of BJ is 0.43% according to wizard of odds.com. There is also an edge calculator there:

BJ Edge calculator

On that same site:

Combined house edge on the
pass line and taking odds

1X odds
0.848%

2X odds
0.606%

Full double odds
0.572%

3X odds
0.471%

3-4-5X odds
0.374%

5X odds
0.326%

10X odds
0.184%

20X odds
0.099%

100X odds
0.021%

Don't know how he came up with those numbers.

In any case, I think one thing everyone is overlooking is that by the time you are able to lay odds on a pass line bet, you've already given up the 7/11 automatic win on the pass, so your house edge is already higher on that first bet. After a point is established, you will lose 1/6 of the time (on a 7) and win 5/36 of the time or less, depending on what the point is. The quoted house edge of 1.41% includes the initial roll, where the pass line automatically wins on 7/11 (win 8/36 of the time). So by the time you can lay odds after the point is made, your original bet is already at a disadvantage (house edge >1.41%)

 

[TheOldBallgame]

stew: I'll try breaking it down a little further so it's easier for you to understand.

The difference between regular craps and crapless craps is this: In regular craps, a 2, 3 or 12 loses and an 11 wins. In crapless craps, those become your point. Other than that, the game pays off the same on a line bet.

Out of 36 possible rolls, you can roll a 2 and 12 one way each and a 3 two ways. That's four ways that you can roll a "craps". You can roll an 11 two ways.

In regular craps, in those six rolls, you will get 2 winners (the 11) and 4 losers (the 2, 3, and 12). You win 2 out of 6 rolls, or 33.3%.

In crapless craps, those numbers become your point. The odds against the 3 or 11 coming up before the 7 are 3-1 and the odds against the 2 or 12 coming up before the 7 are 6-1. Since those are all worse odds than the 2-1 you get in regular craps (since you win 2 out of 6), it's obviously worse to have those made points than to take the 2 winners out of 6 that regular craps gives you.

The Horseshoe in Vegas used to give 100x odds, too. The point is that there is no way in an honest game that crapless craps gives the player an advantage.

 

[Banned4Life]

Regarding whether craps can be beaten, does anybody believe in "dice influence"? That is, being able to roll the dice with enough skill to influence the result (even slightly).

 

[DavidMatthews]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ETOUQ:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 3 Card Poker can be beaten if you can see one of the dealer's cards. Many dealers are sloppy and I've found many where I can view the card. You can get a 3.5% advantage if you know one of the dealer's cards and modify your strategy appropriately.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

David, I couldn't agree more. There is this old guy I play holdem poker with at the casino. And since I can see his cards since he holds them so far away to see them, I kick his ass.

I am glad I am not the only one who cheats to get an edge. LOL

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

If a dealer is sloppy and reveals information to me, and I supposed to purposefully ignore information that I have available because of some honor code with the casino?

In poker, it depends for me. If there is an older or handicapped person who can not read the cards without revealing information then I work hard to close my eyes or turn my head away.

If I'm playing a 30-something millionaire who is completely physically and mentally capable and he is sloppy and shows me his poker cards, I think that's fair game.

David

 

[stew]

TOB;
Thanks for your reply, but you didn't answer my main question, ie. how did you arrive at a house advantage of 5.38% for crapless craps? I still contend that by taking the odds behind the pass line, there is no way the house advantage could ever be anywhere close to 5.38%.

And then you post this paragraph....

In crapless craps, those numbers become your point. The odds against the 3 or 11 coming up before the 7 are 3-1 and the odds against the 2 or 12 coming up before the 7 are 6-1. Since those are all worse odds than the 2-1 you get in regular craps (since you win 2 out of 6), it's obviously worse to have those made points than to take the 2 winners out of 6 that regular craps gives you.

That may seem obvious to you, but quite the contrary to me. Why is it worse? In regular craps, on the come-out roll, you have 8 winners (6 sevens and 2 elevens), 4 losers (1 two, 1 twelve, 2 threes), and 24 points. In crapless craps, you have 6 winners, NO LOSERS, and 30 points. Now obviously, the odds of making any point are against the player, but the house pays you the natural odds of making the point on the money you bet behind the line. This is the best bet in all of gambling and any player should take as much of that bet as they can get. If you're not taking the maximum odds, then you shouldn't be playing crapless craps, or playing the pass line for that matter.
It just occurred to me that you are probably getting your 5.38% house advantage from an analysis of playing crapless craps without factoring in playing the maximum odds allowed.

Surely you would agree with me that you would prefer playing a game where you win 6 times with no losers, than to win 8 times but with 4 losers? All the points, whether 24 in regular craps or 30 of them in crapless craps, you take the maximum odds and you have the best bet in all gambling.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Stew - trust me on this one, crapless craps is a sucker bet through and through. Not sure how you can't see that. Imagine rolling for a point of 12? Here's what you have to remember, the odds behind it will even out over the course of time. If you are going to play yes it is in your best interests to take full odds. However what you don't understand is no matter what you do the money behind the line breaks even over time. The EDGE for the house (which you can never beat) is what you have on the pass line. Now instead of a slight house edge when you are trying to throw a 6 or 8 you are now rolling for 2's and 12's as well. Take all the odds you want but the house edge on you making a 12 before you make a 7 is pretty good. That is where the house edge lay. And that's not talking about the field, horn bets, hardways etc....

I like craps and am going to play on occassion regardless. I will take full odds and stay out of the sucker bets and have a good time. Usually you will do okay and have a little fun. I don't go often nor do I advise you to try and play professionally. The best place in the casino is the poker room for your money if you want to win long term.

 

[stew]

Patrick posted....
Stew - trust me on this one, crapless craps is a sucker bet through and through. Not sure how you can't see that. Imagine rolling for a point of 12? Here's what you have to remember, the odds behind it will even out over the course of time. If you are going to play yes it is in your best interests to take full odds. However what you don't understand is no matter what you do the money behind the line breaks even over time. The EDGE for the house (which you can never beat) is what you have on the pass line. Now instead of a slight house edge when you are trying to throw a 6 or 8 you are now rolling for 2's and 12's as well. Take all the odds you want but the house edge on you making a 12 before you make a 7 is pretty good. That is where the house edge lay. And that's not talking about the field, horn bets, hardways etc....

Now Patrick, why should I trust you? You give me no logic or reason behind your statements, in fact just the opposite. You falsely assume that I don't understand that the money behind the line evens out over time. Why on earth do you assume that I don't understand that? That is the basis of my whole argument! My question for you is this, is that supposed to be a bad thing? I mean where else in the casino can you get a bet where the house has no advantage?
You ask me to imagine rolling for a point of 12, like that is supposed to be a bad thing. The truth is that rolling for a 2 or a 12 is no different than rolling for a 6 or an 8, you get paid the same natural odds behind the line. So the casino has an edge on your pass line bet...big deal! You're playing 100X behind the line and they have no edge on that bet! Now granted, you're not gonna make any money in crapless craps if you don't make any points.....if that's the case, you're better off playing the dont pass line in regular craps. But if you're gonna play the pass line in craps with the maximum odds, you have a better chance of winning money playing crapless craps than regular craps! Not sure how you can't see that!

 

[stew]

Patrick MacIrish/The Old Ballgame;
No responses from you guys? I'm surprised! I understand that David Matthews is trying to promote playing Blackjack, after all, he works for Stanford Wong, a Blackjack expert! He's probably too busy cheating at poker (although he only cheats against 30 yo millionaires, not old, handicapped types so that makes it okay) anyway to respond to this thread. But I expected to hear from you guys, since you were so adamant about crapless craps being a sucker bet. TOB quoted a house edge of 5.38% for crapless craps.
Well, I just did my own analysis of crapless craps using a $5 pass line bet and taking the 100X odds behind the line. There are 36 dice combinations so a $5 bet on the pass line ($180 total) will win 6 times($30), the 6 sevens, and will have 30 points. On those 30 points, $500 will be bet behind the line, total $15,000, so the total bet for 36 rolls is $15,180.
Now, we agree that the odds have no advantage, so over time, you will break even on them. The $180 on the pass line breaks down like this. The player wins the 6 seven rolls; that's $30. There is only one 2 and one 12 roll, each of which the player can expect to win 1 in 7 times, or 14.2857% of the time, so 14.2857% X $5= $71.43 for both the 2 and the 12 roll; 3 and 11 both win 2 of 8 times for the player and there are 2 of each so 2X 1/4= 1/2 of the $5 or $2.50 for each the 2 and the 11 roll; there are 3 combos of both 4 and 10 so the player wins 3 of 9, 1/3 of all 4 and 10 rolls so add $5 to the player total for both 4 and 10; there are 4 combos of both 5 and 9 so the player wins 4 of 10 times, so .4 X $20= $8 for the player for both 5 and 9; and lastly there are 5 combos of both 6 and 8 so the player wins 5 of 11 or 45.45% of $25= $11.36 for the player for both 6 and 8; and the total that the player can expect to win out of the $180 bet on the passline in crapless craps is $85.36. $180 - $85.36= $94.64 for a difference of $9.28. That $9.28 divided by the total passline bet of $180, equals a house advantage of 5.15% (which is close to TOB's figure). But the $9.28 that the house expects to win on the pass line, coupled with the 100X odds behind the line, where we agree, that the house has no advantage on, which is a total of $15,000, means you take $9.28 divided by $15,180 which equals a house edge of .06%.
Now, someone find a bet in the casino that's more favorable to the player!

 

[stew]

No response, McIrish/The Old Ballgame?

Let me respond for you!

I'm sorry, Stew, you are correct. What I previously posted was incorrect and therefore I could not defend it so I chose not to respond.

There, that wasn't so hard now, was it?