Looks like you won on the Pats, Tennesee, NO, and Philly - and you would have broke 50% if the Giants didn't blow goats...
I only bet some peanuts on the pats because I got burned last year in preseason.
I've been looking at the board for next week and I'm starting now to get nervous about the rest of preseason. I think that more and more teams have their stuff in order and that we will start to see them dig in and focus on the things they need the most work on.
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Preseason reasoning at the Stardust
By Reed Holmes
As the Covers editorial team takes a bath in its NFL preseason predictions, it occurred to us make a call to Vegas to get some expert advice.
We went right to the top and talked to Bob Scucci, manager of the Stardust Race & Sports Book, arguably the most influential book on the Vegas strip.
Because there is so much uncertainty in the preseason, bookmakers tend to keep the pointspread so small that every game is virtually a pick ‘em, suggests Scucci.
“Generally you're not going to see anything larger than a 4 1/2-point favorite,” he said.
“We're not going make any one particular team an overwhelming favorite because most of the time, when a team does get out to an early lead or a big lead, changes in personnel occur at halftime and you see a completely different game in the second half.
“You see a lot games where one team will have their starters come out on the field and put up a couple of quick touchdowns and then they pull all their starters. Then you see the other team put up the points.”
That’s exactly what happened in last week’s Falcons-Packers game in Atlanta. Led by Michael Vick, the Falcons jumped out to a 21-10 lead in the first half. In the second half, Atlanta sent in its second, third and fourth stringers and did not score a point. The Packers ended up winning the game, 27-21.
Thus, coaches’ comments prior to games is one of the keys to linemaking in the preseason, suggests Scucci. The more a coach wants to win, the greater the likelihood the spread will be stretched in favor of that team.
“Certain coaches do have a tendency to approach the preseason games with a little bit more vigor and try and actually win the games,” said Scucci.
“Whereas other coaches really are not looking for any type of a win or (putting) points on the board, they're just trying to accomplish other things in those games, treating them more like a scrimmage or practice.”
An obvious example of a coach trying hard to win in the preseason is Washington Redskins coach Steve Spurrier. He was especially motivated to win last preseason in his first year with the team.
This does not seem to be the case, however, with Bill Parcells, who is in his first year as coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
“It really looks like he's trying to accomplish a lot of other things in looking at his personnel in these preseason games,” said Scucci. “The way he is approaching some of these games is that he's not even considering winning.”
The Stardust had the Cowboys as 4 1/2–point favorites over the Houston Texans on Friday night. Scucci claims that line had less to do with Parcells and more to do with public perception.
“With the Texans coming off the first year in the league, they're still at the low end of the totem poll,” he said.
Turns out the public was right - the Cowboys whipped the Texans 34-6.
Like most books, the Stardust set the ‘total’ for Cowboys-Texans game at a low 32 ½ points, whereas it had most of the other games this weekend at 34 points or higher.
“We don't expect a lot of points to be scored in this game, and that's why you do see such a low total,” said Scucci on Friday afternoon. “You are going to see low totals regardless in preseason, but particularly with these two teams.”
As it turns out, the Dallas offense put up big numbers after failing to score a single point in a 0-13 loss to Arizona last week.
Up until Friday, the Stardust had the Denver-Chicago game as a pick. By Saturday, shortly before game time, the line had moved to -2 ½ points in favor of Denver.
“Here we really don't see too much of a difference in which team is going to have their starting QBs in the game a lot longer than the other team,” said Scucci.
Conversely, the Stardust had the Falcons as 4 1/2–point favorites over the Ravens. That line reflects comments made by Atlanta’s coach Dan Reeves who suggested that Vick would get more playing time.
“When you hear news like that, that's going to make one particular team a distinct favorite in preseason,” said Scucci. “I expect Vick to see more playing time than you would normally expect to see someone in preseason.”
Meanwhile, the highest ‘total’ for this weekend’s games at the Stardust was 39 for the Vikings-Chiefs game. The Stardust also had the Chiefs as 3-point favorites.
“The Chiefs have one extra game under their belt,” said Scucci, referring to the Hall of Fame Game. “In that first week against Green Bay, they looked impressive. I mean, their preseason squad looked impressive. That's not to say what their regular season is going to be like.
“But their preseason team looked very good against Green Bay and they also have that extra game under their belt, which comes into play perception-wise and helps make the Chiefs a little bit of a favorite over the Vikings.”
