ADVANCED GAMBLING... CLASS 401

Fezzik · Jul 13, 2004

Protest!!

Shrink, in your first question you stated that you have learned you are on the "wrong side". In my eyes based on the post you clearly indicated that even at the current number you feel the right side would have been to go the other way, meaning you clearly still felt at the bad number you would win over 1/2 the time.

Now you are saying it is more like a 50/50 propostion. If that was true, then it is completely inconsistent with your statement that there is a "right side" or "wrong side" at that line.

To clarify: I really think you needed to post that your initial bet was the "wrong side" AT THAT NUMBER BET.

For example, in game III of the NBA playoffs some can and did bet the Lakers -2. When the line went to pk'm, the right play was to back the Pistons as it became clear to all that was the "right" side even at pk-em.

ivanm · Jul 13, 2004

If you are a winning player you should just stick with what you have. You can't worry what BW is doing (you will go crazy if you try to figure him out). It does suck when you get stuck with the crap number. If you are good, the line will move with you more often than against you, if it does not you need to rethink your handicapping approach.

bigperm+ · Jul 13, 2004

why is 4 a dead #

JaspersLaw · Jul 13, 2004

I'm still going with #2.

JackRuby · Jul 13, 2004

"You quickly learn you are on the WRONG SIDE of the game, not just because of the line move, but also because a star player is out or you forgot to see another handicapping angle that comes to you mind. What do you do?"

Any previous bets have no impact on the current decision provided bankroll is sufficient.

Same answer for all scenarios, new information gives me a play on the other side. The other side is a bet for whatever units the strength of the play dictates.

Fishhead · Jul 13, 2004

Welcome to the RX Jack!!

Very good thread to start you posting career in.

bigperm+ · Jul 13, 2004

anyone!!!!!! why is 4 considered a dead # this isnt the first time i have heard this. i just hve not been able to have anyone explain it to me

THE SHRINK · Jul 13, 2004

big perm,

Because of the 2 point conversion...

hanover00 · Jul 13, 2004

Very good thread. Keep 'em coming.

SubZaero · Jul 13, 2004

If for whatever reason i bet a "wrong side" i will always wait untill the game starts. You never know what might happened. On the other hand if it is not going the way you wanted, second halves hlines ave been the best way out of a bet in my case anyway.

THE SHRINK · Jul 13, 2004

Isn't it interesting that with so many sharpsters we can have so many different opinions on how to handle each situation?

The irony of it all is that several bookmakers I have spoken with can't agree on this either...

THE SHRINk

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Jul 13, 2004

I think the difference is loss tolerance. Where as many people says let it ride, or risk Polish middle. They have a much higher loss tolerance than myself. When I just realize the loss, even buying through a 3, I know the loss, minimize it and move on. It does not happen that often to me, and I will overcome the juice loss quickly on successful scalps. Or middles. If I Polish it, might take weeks or more to get back. I think it is officially labeled risk aversion...Best Wishes...OF

PanchoSanza · Jul 13, 2004

"I think many need a lesson in Economics "Fixed Costs". "

You meant sunk costs. That concept doesn't apply here since you can technically receover the costs (less the vig) by playing the other side.

Of course there is a risk of the old polish middle.

TheGeneral+ · Jul 13, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
Isn't it interesting that with so many sharpsters we can have so many different opinions on how to handle each situation?

The irony of it all is that several bookmakers I have spoken with can't agree on this either...

THE SHRINk<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, I have asked some persons here personally and get different opinions as well. My half educated wagering ways would force me to stand with the original bet even though I knew the wiser ones were on the other side. The wiser ones do not win every wager and I do not want to try and chase anyone else often. I would hold firm and hope the Big guys were wrong.

My opinion on a key player injury line move has been well documented here. I do not ever fear this as there is another player likely on the bench awaiting a chance to shine.

I stand and take my chances. I do not come across this scenario often as I await last minute mostly to bet as well, so it's no harm no foul for me to lose this 1 game.

It all comes down to the risk you have invested and the intent you had when you laid 3 I guess.

Good thread

DavidMatthews · Jul 13, 2004

I would probably sit on the bet and feel queesy.

I might lay it off at halftime if possible. Not mathematically correct, but possibly psychologically less stressful.

Skyweasel · Jul 13, 2004

cap over the long-term as a winner, I do nothing. If I know my win rate is 55% or better, I am not in this to chase someone else's opinion.

But let's consider it. Bob McCune wrote that the last move is a 55% or better winning move, in an era when there were no computer screens, he just followed the line moves with a phone service out of Vegas.

So assuming that the move you are looking at late is a syndicate's actual move, not their buyback on some mistake or whatnot, then maybe if you just followed this and played it every day, you could make money.

But if you are betting earlier, then you must be capping (or working whatever system you have) and if you aren't a consistent winner already, how is subsequently chasing a move going to make you money?

Say you are hitting 47% ats and you make 100 1 unit bets, losing 11.3 units laying 110. So for your next 100 you decide to buy back every time your pal Shrink calls you 5 mins to post and says "BW just moved that line".

Now remember, you still made your 100 bets at 47%, because your capping skills didn't improve at all. So you are still going to be 11.3 units in the hole. But now you compound this by buying back at -150 -- as your pal Shrink points out that it will cost you this much to get those 2 points back every time and avoid that Polish Middle.

We'll assume that there is a BW move half the time; there isn't really any way to know how often there would be but for the sake of argument we'll say half the time. You would then lay 150 50 times and win 57% with your new pals BW/Shrink, but unfortunately due to the high vig, still find yourself -3.75 units on these bets. Because laying -150 you must hit 60% to break even, and not even Shrink's pal BW manages this.

So all you accomplished was losing 33% more than if you would have done nothing. Even if you could buy back at -110 and never take the Polish middle, you still only make up 8 units. You are still a net loser.

No matter how you slice the buyback scenario, I think the issue is, you ought to either improve your capping in the first place, so at 7pm you are eating dinner with your family or out enjoying yourself because you got down in the morning based on your excellent capping which allows you to earn consistently, instead of chewing your nails looking for a late move to follow, or you ought quit capping altogether and just take up following late steam moves as a hobby or whatnot.

What if you already were a successful 55% capper, would it help? Not laying -150, you'd just decrease your $ win. The only open question is, if you buy back at -110 and risk the middle going against you, how often does this happen and what does that do to the 8 units you would win on those 50 bets if you never got middled?

THE SHRINK · Jul 14, 2004

In 10 words or less, can someone explain to me what Skyweasel's point is?

THE SHRINK

TheGeneral+ · Jul 14, 2004

Hit fifty five percent long term and be a winner

RobFunk · Jul 14, 2004

If im absolutely 'in love' with the other side I buy it back, but the buying to 3 really isnt an issue becuase 'i really love the other side now' . . .if its nothing im not overhwlemed with excitement about, I would let it ride. theres way too many games in a season to play games like that.

in other words, the sydnicate isnt enough here. you have to use your own mind along with other factors. this is what sets you (anyone) apart from the rest, right?!