ACE-ACE/Samy/Jackal Over-Under System

letskibud · Nov 18, 2008

Sounds good, thanks for the info Samy Farha Jr, its appreciated.
keep doing your thing!
-LD

sportspickssystem · Nov 18, 2008

Do you know if the formula picks more over than under?

TheJackal · Nov 18, 2008

sportspickssystem said:
Do you know if the formula picks more over than under?

It will vary from week to week depending on the actual lines. As you can see from above, if you think 12 pt value is good enough for you to play the total in the Ball State game, the advantage would be to take the Over.

Last week the +20 plays were 3 unders and one over. All 4 were winners.

I have to admit it was a little difficult to take the over when the line was 79.5 in the Houston/Tulsa game but the predicted total was 102.38. Actual total wound up being 100.

SMU/UTEP was an under play. Line was 73. Predicted total was 46.38. Actual total was 46.

Wash St/Ariz St was an Under play. Line was 57.5. predicted total was 28. Actual total was 31.

Predicted total varied from the actual total on each of these plays by a field goal or less.

The UCLA/Wash game was a little tighter. Line was 47.5. Predicted total 26.55. Actual total was 34.

Willye · Nov 18, 2008

is there any data on the winners at under +20, like the plus 10's etc, appreciate if you guys can post the #'s for all the games , for leans etc thnx great work guys

SamyFarhaJr · Nov 18, 2008

Willye said:
is there any data on the winners at under +20, like the plus 10's etc, appreciate if you guys can post the #'s for all the games , for leans etc thnx great work guys

The YTD record of all games with a value of +6 or more: 83-66

I'll post all of the games that have a value of +6 or more and you can track if you want...the ones I'm playing are with a value of +17 or more.

Jetplane · Nov 18, 2008

I'm a totals master and this thing is right on track >

i've only lost 2 TOTALS all year with a revised edition of this thing. I'm on the over tonight.

SamyFarhaJr · Nov 18, 2008

Jetplane said:
I'm a totals master and this thing is right on track > i've only lost 2 TOTALS all year with a revised edition of this thing. I'm on the over tonight.

There isnt any value in todays game basically a coin flip predicted is 50.48
actual line is 51

Jetplane · Nov 18, 2008

Yep, but my OVER system has it slightly over also... not a big play for me. But tomorrow my big play is the over.. and it seems this boy likes it too?

Sorry, didn't mean to make it sound like the OVER tonight was a good play, it's just my lean. And i know this has a lean on it also.

SamyFarhaJr · Nov 18, 2008

Jetplane said:
Yep, but my OVER system has it slightly over also... not a big play for me. But tomorrow my big play is the over.. and it seems this boy likes it too?

Sorry, didn't mean to make it sound like the OVER tonight was a good play, it's just my lean. And i know this has a lean on it also.

gotcha...ye for tommorows game the lean is towards the over with a value of +12.20 if any one wants to know, other then this no more plays until at least Friday since lines are not out yet for those games.

ACE-ACE · Nov 18, 2008

GOING TO SHOWWHATS ON THE SHEET ONLY FOR TONIGHT AND WED/DAY

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BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=191 height=18>Time</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 128pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=170>Game Information</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 19pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=25 x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 119pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=158 x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 61pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=81>StatFox Line</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=33 x:str=""></TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 40pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #99ccff" width=53>MY O/U</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 53pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #99ccff" width=71>O/U Value</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 50pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #99ccff" width=67>O/U Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.79166666666666663">7:00:00 PM</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> (101) N ILLINOIS</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AT</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> (102) KENT ST</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>3</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>49.5</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="50.475555555555594">50.48</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.97555555555559437" x:fmla='=IF(F2<>"",IF(F2="OFF","",ABS(G2-F2)),"")'>0.98</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(OR(F2="OFF",F2=""),"",IF(G2-F2>6,"OVER",IF(G2-F2<-6,"UNDER","")))'></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Wednesday,November 19 2008</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(F3<>"",IF(F3="OFF","",ABS(G3-F3)),"")'></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(OR(F3="OFF",F3=""),"",IF(G3-F3>6,"OVER",IF(G3-F3<-6,"UNDER","")))'></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Time</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">Game Information</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">StatFox Line</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str=""></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(F4<>"",IF(F4="OFF","",ABS(G4-F4)),"")'></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:str="" x:fmla='=IF(OR(F4="OFF",F4=""),"",IF(G4-F4>6,"OVER",IF(G4-F4<-6,"UNDER","")))'></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.79166666666666663">7:00:00 PM</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> (103) BALL ST</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">AT</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"> (104) C MICHIGAN</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>7</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>54.5</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="66.702222222222247">66.70</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND: #ff6600; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; mso-ignore: style; mso-pattern: auto none" align=right x:num="12.202222222222247" x:fmla='=IF(F5<>"",IF(F5="OFF","",ABS(G5-F5)),"")'>12.20</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:fmla='=IF(OR(F5="OFF",F5=""),"",IF(G5-F5>6,"OVER",IF(G5-F5<-6,"UNDER","")))'>OVER</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

NO PLAY ON THOSE TWO!

GOOD NOW i CAN JUST WATCH BB

metro_pro · Nov 19, 2008

i just worked out the Texas Tech / Oklahoma game Over/Under and its 99.the opening Over/Under was 70.it looks like a play to me, since both teams must go all out.any thoughts Samy?

It'sBlue · Nov 19, 2008

Do you totally ignore the defensive stats of teams? For example, the Washington/Washington St game this weekend shows predicted total of 17.1, but the line is 49.5, and you would think with some good reason -- the defenses are horrible, and if you run the same formula on the defenses' yards ALLOWED, the total would be 72.2. So do you ignore that, and just go solely with the offensive numbers?

Great, great info, guys. Thanks a lot.

kpbno7 · Nov 19, 2008

thanks to ace sam jackal for ur efforts ! bol for the rest of the year!

weezyfbaby · Nov 19, 2008

how do you find the total for all of the teams for instant this week i think i read in this thread it was around 44,000

kungfu4life · Nov 19, 2008

Samy, used your o/u formula in Miami vs. NE game and showed a +33 value. Are you already on this one?

ACE-ACE · Nov 19, 2008

kungfu4life said:
Samy, used your o/u formula in Miami vs. NE game and showed a +33 value. Are you already on this one?

dont know where you got the number!!!

the line is 42....myline on that one is 50...so this is only a value of +8

ne avg 346 and mia 353 = 699-325= 374 div by 7.5 =50

Ace

ACE-ACE · Nov 19, 2008

Samy Farha Jr...if you have time I like to take this one step more...just to see if D-line Avg makes a diff////..Can you come out with A AVG in the NFL to started for Defense - Total Yards/Game...than we could see if that factor bring down the line or bring it up....this could be another great tool!!

total for both team minus what you come up with div by 7.5....we may have to run test to fit this right.

Ace

TheJackal · Nov 19, 2008

ACE-ACE said:
Samy Farha Jr...if you have time I like to take this one step more...just to see if D-line Avg makes a diff////..Can you come out with A AVG in the NFL to started for Defense - Total Yards/Game...than we could see if that factor bring down the line or bring it up....this could be another great tool!!

total for both team minus what you come up with div by 7.5....we may have to run test to fit this right.

Ace

I think the right thing to do is to go back to the previous games and look at whether it was a W or L and if the defensive stats at the time would have put you on a different side or even completely off a game.

TheJackal · Nov 19, 2008

repost... sorry.

SamyFarhaJr · Nov 19, 2008

TheJackal said:
I think the right thing to do is to go back to the previous games and look at whether it was a W or L and if the defensive stats at the time would have put you on a different side or even completely off a game.

Thats up to you guys if you want to go ahead and see if the defensive stats would have played a difference for NFL...as for college I'm just gonna use the stats strictly based on offense for now...why fix it if it aint broken :lol:

As for other people posting all the plays and whether or not it will be a play I cant go through each one and confirm.

All of the plays will be posted on THURSDAYS if I have time at work I'll post during the afternoon if not then Thursday evening.