Update:
Toronto -4 63.6%
Jazz Over 228.5 60.3%
Washington dropped to 53% - NO PLAY on Washington.
Due to the changes in percentages throughout the morning, I will not post plays until Noon pacific time to avoid any confusion and to avoid potentially playing a play that suddenly changes drastically. I've found this seems to be happening. Plays that would be a play in the morning, turn out to not be plays be the afternoon. Sorry for any confusion regarding the Washington game.
Toronto -4 63.6%
Jazz Over 228.5 60.3%
Washington dropped to 53% - NO PLAY on Washington.
Due to the changes in percentages throughout the morning, I will not post plays until Noon pacific time to avoid any confusion and to avoid potentially playing a play that suddenly changes drastically. I've found this seems to be happening. Plays that would be a play in the morning, turn out to not be plays be the afternoon. Sorry for any confusion regarding the Washington game.
So far it looks like I'm wishing Washington's percentage would've held at over 60%. These type of plays with a % change without line movement (which is a different situation obviously) are 2-2. If Wash holds on, they will be 3-2. So yes, missing out on a small amount of profit, but there is a reason the percentage changes and I have a feeling that in the long run, it'd be a losing proposition.
At least Toronto is looking very strong. Just need Utah and Phoenix to light up the score board tonigh.
At least Toronto is looking very strong. Just need Utah and Phoenix to light up the score board tonigh.
Guys I have a question regarding money management in the Washington situation earlier today. After the accuscore probabilty sank and the play was calledd off, I took the oppostie side of the play and ate the 10% loss. However, as I thought about that later, given the outcome'd proabability of success was 50%, hypothetically, of course, the expected outcome of letting the bet ride was a loss of 5%. Wouldn't my expected return of letting the Washington bet ride have the higher return in the long run? Of course, the variance in that on event is enormous compared to the 100% chance of losing the juice on the play when i Take the other side, but I am thinking perhaps letting bets made in error, or which have new information come into the equation, ride instead of eating the juice would produce the lesser loss over the course of one's gambling career. I have simply eaten the juice in these situations in the past, especially in football, and am simply contemplating a change in strategy. Of course, the logic I present above assumes that any new information acquired does not skew the probablity in favor of the opposite outcome, in which case simply eating the juice would be the correct choice. Thanks guys and BOL.
I appreciate you posting the plays and in no way am I complaining about the change in the Washington game. It was more of a general question as I am sure this situation will arise again in this and other sports throughout my gambling career. Perhaps a new thread would have been more appropriate to pose the questions as I was only using the Washington game as an example. In the past I hae always just eaten the juice when I change my mind about a play.
I didnt' think you were complaining, sorry if my response seemed that way. I know it's sometimes tough because you can't tell tone when reading posts. You do bring up a very good topic for discussion though. In the past, whenever I decided I didn't like a play for whatever reason, I would just let it ride and hope for the best.....never seemed to work. :lol:
