It is an interesting matchup to say the least. One of my main factors of my formula seems to find success with teams that have just played tough competition lately, as of their last 4-7 games. That's just human nature, I mean, if a team has been playing medicore competition all week then has to go up against a decent competitor, it comes as a surprise to them. Golden State has a bit of an advantage in this aspect according to my formula.
Phoenix on the road, and Golden State at home, are practically even matchups normally. While Phoenix might feel like they are a solid team again, after blowing out Sacramento, they can now breathe a sigh of relief........but that could be a problem, if anything! I know Maggette might not even play, but that's not enough of a factor to downgrade the play.....it took me some time to think about it though.
Just take a quick look at what Golden State has done at home lately and who they had to play. Then take a look at Phoenix on the road lately? If it was pk, I would stay away, but its a good play when Golden State is an underdog by 4.
I know some might think Barnes and Richardson might want to play better and more aggressive against their former team... sure that might help people who have them on their fantasy teams, but sometimes this can be a drawback (trying too much to be a hero etc.) depending on the player.... So that factor can usually balance out.
That is my take on it, and I could end up wrong. I'll say it's probably the weakest of the 3 unit plays, since I almost put it at 2 units.
Phoenix on the road, and Golden State at home, are practically even matchups normally. While Phoenix might feel like they are a solid team again, after blowing out Sacramento, they can now breathe a sigh of relief........but that could be a problem, if anything! I know Maggette might not even play, but that's not enough of a factor to downgrade the play.....it took me some time to think about it though.
Just take a quick look at what Golden State has done at home lately and who they had to play. Then take a look at Phoenix on the road lately? If it was pk, I would stay away, but its a good play when Golden State is an underdog by 4.
I know some might think Barnes and Richardson might want to play better and more aggressive against their former team... sure that might help people who have them on their fantasy teams, but sometimes this can be a drawback (trying too much to be a hero etc.) depending on the player.... So that factor can usually balance out.
That is my take on it, and I could end up wrong. I'll say it's probably the weakest of the 3 unit plays, since I almost put it at 2 units.
let me add that my formula uses absolutely no trends, or ATS records or any of that. If I would be, a lot of my 3 unit winners would've probably been no plays (such as
Dallas as a 7 point underdog against Orlando on Monday, among many others) I don't even use past matchups against each other, so not even any revenge factors here either.
Dallas as a 7 point underdog against Orlando on Monday, among many others) I don't even use past matchups against each other, so not even any revenge factors here either.
Opps, forgot to add the Wizards, decided to put them at 2 units :missingte
Here is the full and revised card for tonight:
Wednesday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 19-14-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 14-8-1)
LAL -8
DAL -3.5
MEM +5.5
GS +4
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 0-1-0)
ORL -13
OKC +3
WAS -2
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 5-5-0)
MIA +4
NYK +5.5
ATL +2.5
Here is the full and revised card for tonight:
Wednesday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 19-14-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 14-8-1)
LAL -8
DAL -3.5
MEM +5.5
GS +4
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 0-1-0)
ORL -13
OKC +3
WAS -2
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 5-5-0)
MIA +4
NYK +5.5
ATL +2.5
Took the day off from capping games on Thursday, but instead I did do a little time revising the system yet again, because I know it still needs improvements. I still do have to use like 30% personal judgment, because of injuries and other factors. The system does 50-70% of the rest though for me.
Hope the good run continues in this high volume phase, almost at the 60% winning percentage goal, and I just need to get to it and keep it till all-star break.. 3 unit plays are doing fantastic, but again, this is still a testing phase.. Here are Friday's plays:
Friday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 19-14-1 57.3%) +23.7 units
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 17-8-2 66.6% ) +21.9 units
ORL -6.5
POR -6
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 2-2-0 50%) -0.4 units
NYK +6.5
DEN -7
PHX -10.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 8-5-0 61.5%) +2.2 units
CHA -1.5
MEM -4.5
SAC +3
Hope the good run continues in this high volume phase, almost at the 60% winning percentage goal, and I just need to get to it and keep it till all-star break.. 3 unit plays are doing fantastic, but again, this is still a testing phase.. Here are Friday's plays:
Friday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 19-14-1 57.3%) +23.7 units
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 17-8-2 66.6% ) +21.9 units
ORL -6.5
POR -6
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 2-2-0 50%) -0.4 units
NYK +6.5
DEN -7
PHX -10.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 8-5-0 61.5%) +2.2 units
CHA -1.5
MEM -4.5
SAC +3
Did a complete revision (I keep working my ass off trying to make it better and more consistent) of the system since that last big losing night (though not unexpected at that unusually high volume testing phase), and it has been doing well, but I haven't posted any plays from it yet... It's pretty low volume right now and much more picky, but it happens to have HUGE value for 2 games tonight.
3 unit play
DAL +4
2 unit play
GS -3
As long as there is no major injuries for either of those teams....
3 unit play
DAL +4
2 unit play
GS -3
As long as there is no major injuries for either of those teams....
