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Abnormality's NBA08/09 picks
- Thread starter Abnormality
- Start date
only +1 units last night once again. Added a little tweak that should help for my normal system, and I am in the process adding another tweak here or there in the near future. I might make a System B version of Wednesdays picks, which wouldn't be that much different, but could clean up a few of the bad picks, that haven't been even close that I have been getting. But here is my normal system plays right now:
Wednesday
3 units
CHA -6.5
PHX -5
DAL +1
HOU -3
SAC -3
1 unit
NO -6
CLE -1
Wednesday
3 units
CHA -6.5
PHX -5
DAL +1
HOU -3
SAC -3
1 unit
NO -6
CLE -1
Bad night for Wednesday's picks. I just finished a new revision of the system that adds the much revised "team due to come back from a slump" value. Hope I have time later after work, to finish the rest of the games and spit out more it's picks, but here is what I have right now. This is the first time I'd say I like the look of the choices of the system beforehand, but I don't know if that's a good or bad thing :lol:
( *note, the Bobcats and Bucks would be 1 unit plays instead, in my previous version of the system, and the Knicks would have WAY too much value, even if Memphis is THAT bad.. But Knicks are now just barely a 3 unit play in this new revision, and that is just how much change this new revision adds, but yet it's still keeping most of it's basic roots. Rockets and Mavericks would still be 3 unit plays in the previous version as well. )
And of course, like I have said before this is just a work in progress system, so DO NOT TAIL! I'd say the previous version would have a version number of version 0.45, but after this update I'd say it's at about version 0.65
Friday System Picks
3 units
ATL -4.5
DAL +4
NYK -6
HOU 1
1 unit
PHX -4
( *note, the Bobcats and Bucks would be 1 unit plays instead, in my previous version of the system, and the Knicks would have WAY too much value, even if Memphis is THAT bad.. But Knicks are now just barely a 3 unit play in this new revision, and that is just how much change this new revision adds, but yet it's still keeping most of it's basic roots. Rockets and Mavericks would still be 3 unit plays in the previous version as well. )
And of course, like I have said before this is just a work in progress system, so DO NOT TAIL! I'd say the previous version would have a version number of version 0.45, but after this update I'd say it's at about version 0.65
Friday System Picks
3 units
ATL -4.5
DAL +4
NYK -6
HOU 1
1 unit
PHX -4
didnt end up calculating the rest of Sunday's picks, only the first 3 games that day and unfortunately, the 2 plays that came out of those 3 came out as losers. I obviously wouldn't do, and not finish the rest of the games if I knew ppl were tailing, but like I said I don't trust the system quite enough yet and neither should anyone else.
Did some modifications to the system (seems to becoming an almost everyday thing), seems I need to modify things quite a bit whenever I add another element to the overall formula. Here are tonight's picks:
Tuesday Formula Picks
3 units
SAC +13.5
CHA +11
FORMULA B PICKS (this takes home/away differential into account, but only by 5%. Ultimately, my goal has been to stay away from relying on home/away diff, which my regular formula takes NO account of it whatsoever right now. However, I might need to take it into consideration eventually, so I will post these formula B picks which takes it into account, currently at 5%)
1 unit
ORL -9
3 units
CLE -13.5
CHA +11
Did some modifications to the system (seems to becoming an almost everyday thing), seems I need to modify things quite a bit whenever I add another element to the overall formula. Here are tonight's picks:
Tuesday Formula Picks
3 units
SAC +13.5
CHA +11
FORMULA B PICKS (this takes home/away differential into account, but only by 5%. Ultimately, my goal has been to stay away from relying on home/away diff, which my regular formula takes NO account of it whatsoever right now. However, I might need to take it into consideration eventually, so I will post these formula B picks which takes it into account, currently at 5%)
1 unit
ORL -9
3 units
CLE -13.5
CHA +11
Now its back to one system, and I'm gonna put it in high volume mode as a test, and start tracking its record from here till all-star break to see what it's really made of (hopefully not crap..)
Friday System picks at high volume (record from 1-30, 0-0)
3 unit plays (from 1-30, 0-0)
BOS -6
PHI -10
MIA +3
NJ +7.5
LAL -6.5
OKC +10
CHA +10
NO -9.5
CHI -1
1 unit plays (from 1-30, 0-0)
TOR -7.5
Friday System picks at high volume (record from 1-30, 0-0)
3 unit plays (from 1-30, 0-0)
BOS -6
PHI -10
MIA +3
NJ +7.5
LAL -6.5
OKC +10
CHA +10
NO -9.5
CHI -1
1 unit plays (from 1-30, 0-0)
TOR -7.5
Horrid day, but i figured that this could happen some days, when I decided to try this high volume style test run. Still hoping to hit my goal of 60% winners by all-star break, but it will have to fight an uphill battle from here. Here are tonight's plays:
Saturday System picks at high volume (record from 1/30, 3-6-1)
3 unit plays (from 1/30, 3-5-1)
NJ +8
LAC +4.5
MIL -2
HOU -8.5
POR -9.5
1 unit plays (from 1/30, 0-1-0)
IND -4.5
DAL -2
MEM +10.5
SA -6
Saturday System picks at high volume (record from 1/30, 3-6-1)
3 unit plays (from 1/30, 3-5-1)
NJ +8
LAC +4.5
MIL -2
HOU -8.5
POR -9.5
1 unit plays (from 1/30, 0-1-0)
IND -4.5
DAL -2
MEM +10.5
SA -6
System had a good night on the 3 unit plays last night, going 4-1 on them. Here are Sundays:
Sunday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 9-9-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 7-6-1)
ORL -6 (this line will probably go to at least -8 by gametime)
SAC -2
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 2-3-0)
DET +4* (this actually just barely qualifies for a 3 unit play, but my Cleveland blooded heritage keeps it here instead!)
MIN +13.5
*I'm gonna use the reasoning for keeping Detroit a 1 unit play, is that they don't quite qualify nearly enough compared to the other two 3 unit plays I have, so I decided it wouldn't be worthwhile to include in that group as well :lol:
Sunday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 9-9-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 7-6-1)
ORL -6 (this line will probably go to at least -8 by gametime)
SAC -2
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 2-3-0)
DET +4* (this actually just barely qualifies for a 3 unit play, but my Cleveland blooded heritage keeps it here instead!)
MIN +13.5
*I'm gonna use the reasoning for keeping Detroit a 1 unit play, is that they don't quite qualify nearly enough compared to the other two 3 unit plays I have, so I decided it wouldn't be worthwhile to include in that group as well :lol:
Nice day on Sunday since both the 3 unit plays hit. Let me just remind and let you know, that my 1 unit plays are very experimental, and might just barely lean 1 way for the system normally, and I mean as low as 1-2 points on the spread, but what makes them a play is some new element I'm considering for the formula.
For instance I have a separate formula for teams on a complete winning streak, as to speculate when they might have a let down and finally lose a game or spread, because normally my regular system would probably ride their winning streak for too long (though I'm debating that my normal system's sacrifice for doing this, might actually be worth it and work out in the end... and I might just be acting too picky knowing for the fact that my normal system would ride that team till it loses a couple games in a row most likely...)
But the 3 unit plays would most likely be actual plays, even after my system is completely tweaked and finished (which I hope that day will come). Here are Mondays plays, but these plays it spits out scare me a bit :
Monday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 12-10-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 9-6-1)
DAL +7
CHA +7.5
MIA -10.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 3-4-0)
MEM +5.5
NYK +5.5
the other games are so exactly the same as the spreads the system decided on, its crazy. These two 1 unit plays are not really to be trusted either. Even the 3 units I'm kinda praying for to work :shocked:
But again, I made the system and see why those 3 plays have value. In my opinion...
For instance I have a separate formula for teams on a complete winning streak, as to speculate when they might have a let down and finally lose a game or spread, because normally my regular system would probably ride their winning streak for too long (though I'm debating that my normal system's sacrifice for doing this, might actually be worth it and work out in the end... and I might just be acting too picky knowing for the fact that my normal system would ride that team till it loses a couple games in a row most likely...)
But the 3 unit plays would most likely be actual plays, even after my system is completely tweaked and finished (which I hope that day will come). Here are Mondays plays, but these plays it spits out scare me a bit :
Monday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 12-10-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 9-6-1)
DAL +7
CHA +7.5
MIA -10.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 3-4-0)
MEM +5.5
NYK +5.5
the other games are so exactly the same as the spreads the system decided on, its crazy. These two 1 unit plays are not really to be trusted either. Even the 3 units I'm kinda praying for to work :shocked:
But again, I made the system and see why those 3 plays have value. In my opinion...
Seems like the Bobcats really need Gerald Wallace, and I should lay off playing on teams without their best player for a few games. Though today, I still can't pass up on Boston even without Garnett with this line, but I will push the play down to 2 units (my first with the system). Got some great value tonight, at least... from the system's perspective...
Tuesday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 15-12-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 11-7-1)
IND -4
NJ -4.5
DEN -6
CHI +7.5
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 0-0-0)
BOS -2.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 4-5-0)
CLE -10
Tuesday System picks at high volume (record since 1/30/09, 15-12-1)
3 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 11-7-1)
IND -4
NJ -4.5
DEN -6
CHI +7.5
2 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 0-0-0)
BOS -2.5
1 unit plays (record since 1/30/09, 4-5-0)
CLE -10
