Aarons 499 @ Talladega 4/27/08

grinin · Apr 21, 2008

Kyle Bush 0.6 units @ +800
Newman 0.5 units @ +2000
Kurt Busch 0.5 units @ +1600
Biffle 0.25 units @ +4500
Kahne 0.2 units @ +3500
Hamlin 0.2 units @ +1600

Qualifying
Johnson 1.15 to win 1 unit over J Gordon

The restricted superspeedways usually offer a lot of value to the 2nd tier drivers on win bets since at the end of the race, there is far more likelihood that they happen to shuffle to the front on this type of track than any other .

nascarphenom · Apr 21, 2008

like the strategy a whole lot

When I get time tomorrow, I will list my plays. They will be everyone from Hamlin at 11-1 on up....Ill calculate amounts accordingly.

Betting this way makes the race a whole lotta fun to watch! Rooting for 15+ longshots!

I like Biffle and Kenseth to do something at high odds....

grinin · Apr 23, 2008

The COT has leveled the playing field significantly. Additionally, the plates minimize the engine advantages of the premier teams. Third tier teams would have to be extremely lucky to have everything fall in their favor to win this race but second tier teams often have positive expectation when you have the ability to line shop. Thus, I do not see any value in anyone at +700 or below.

Kyle Busch @ +800 is borderline. He is still cutting his teeth on the superspeedways and is far more likely to run up front all night like he did at Daytona then lose a couple spots due to the veterans at the end. But he did have one of the best cars and should be a threat Sunday.

Newman @ +2000 Even before Daytona he has been a consistent finisher at these tracks. It would probably take the teamwork of Busch again but together they have more than a shot.

Kurt Busch @ +1600 Always the bridesmaid never the bride. As was stated in the Daytona thread Busch is probably one of the best plate racers out there. Almost always he has odds that warrant a look. Unfortunately, I have always been on the losing end of those odds as far win bets have been concerned. But again this is the right price.

Biffle @ +4500 This is a no brainer. Biff is the best Plate racer left at Rousch since Kurt Busch is now with Penske. He would need help to pull this off, but it appears that Rousch's odds on the superspeedways should be much better with the COT. (They were atrocious before)

Kahne +3500 A little value play considering the impressive Dodge showing at Daytona

Hamlin +1600 Obviously Gibb's Toyotas had a lot at Daytona as evidenced by Kyle (zero restraint). Tony played it a little closer to the vest but was easily able to make moves at will. Hamlin will qualify well and these odds will never be seen again.

As far as Gibbs is concerned, Tony is a favorite but he just has never been a team player which is probably why he has such few plate wins, considering his talent. If his odds go up because of poor qualifying, etc. I would consider taking him.

nascarphenom · Apr 24, 2008

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>

</TD><TD width=300>Taking all these drivers for .5 units

Shits and giggles race!! GOOO VALUE!!!

Denny Hamlin
</TD><TD width=65>

+1185
</TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kurt Busch </TD><TD width=65> +1100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kevin Harvick </TD><TD width=65> +1825 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Ryan Newman </TD><TD width=65> +1950 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Carl Edwards </TD><TD width=65> +2350 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Clint Bowyer </TD><TD width=65> +2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Matt Kenseth </TD><TD width=65> +2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Jeff Burton </TD><TD width=65> +2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300></TD><TD width=65></TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kasey Kahne </TD><TD width=65> +2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300></TD><TD width=65></TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Greg Biffle </TD><TD width=65> +4250 </TD><TD width=200>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

grinin · Apr 25, 2008

Added the following race bets:
Biffle over Kenseth, Edwards and McMurray 1.65 unit +450
McMurray ov Biff, edwards and kenseth 0.3 @ +350
Hopefully Biffs car will drive like it did at daytona

jeffro241 · Apr 25, 2008

i have a few bets all around,but,when my book opens back(its closed for nascar right now) i think i will lay some on Harvick to win/come in top 3....what do ya think?

grinin · Apr 25, 2008

jeffro241 said:
i have a few bets all around,but,when my book opens back(its closed for nascar right now) i think i will lay some on Harvick to win/come in top 3....what do ya think?

I think books will offer between +1000 and +1250 on him and I don't think he is worth it

Gummo · Apr 27, 2008

JJ +775 for 1 unit.

nascarphenom · Apr 28, 2008

nascarphenom said:
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>

</TD><TD width=300>Taking all these drivers for .5 units

Shits and giggles race!! GOOO VALUE!!!

Denny Hamlin

</TD><TD width=65>

+1185

</TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kurt Busch </TD><TD width=65>+1100 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kevin Harvick </TD><TD width=65>+1825 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Ryan Newman </TD><TD width=65>+1950 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Carl Edwards </TD><TD width=65>+2350 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Clint Bowyer </TD><TD width=65>+2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Matt Kenseth </TD><TD width=65>+2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Jeff Burton </TD><TD width=65>+2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300></TD><TD width=65></TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Kasey Kahne </TD><TD width=65>+2850 </TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300></TD><TD width=65></TD><TD width=200></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55></TD><TD width=300>Greg Biffle </TD><TD width=65>+4250 </TD><TD width=200>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Well no winner this week, but I think Hamlin woulda had somethin for Kyle if the race would have stayed green. Regardless of a winning day or not, that was one hell of a race! The Car of Tomorrow is a great car for restrictor plate racing!

-5 units on the day, but still way up for the year!!!

Now to my home track, Richmond! Ill post all my plays by friday night, b/c ill be out there all day getting crunked (and probably calling in absurd wagers)