AA in poker

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peskypup said:
Another way of putting this:

if I go all-in with AA in the first hand of a 10 player sit and go I am 80% favourite to double up, 20% likely to be eliminated 10th.

My actual results are that in over 300 events I have placed 10th twice, which is 0.7%.

I personally don't see that doubling your stack early on justifies taking the risk of going out early on. I make the top 3 and prize money about 50% of the time (winning 20%) and rarely go into the top 5 as chip leader. Winning money is 80% about the endgame.
:icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf


WOW!


but im not going to try to explain it anymore ...I tried yesterday good luck Peskypup!
 

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<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" height=102 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width=466 colSpan=2>Submitted by: Andy M
Perfectblackjack.com</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

</TD><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>Imagine the scenario. You're playing Texas hold'em poker in a
single table sit-and-go tournament. It's getting towards the
latter stages, five players are left and you can smell an
in-the-money finish. But you need to get in to the top three and
stay there - while your chip stack would be nice if it was
bigger. The blinds are becoming significant and you know you'll
have to make your move soon.
Out come the cards - miracles of miracles, you look down at your
cards and see the magic AA looking back at you. Now, surely this
means it's you right to win the hand. Announce "I'm all-in" and
become the chip leader.
Now, under most circumstances there's no doubt that you should
either push in a tasty raise or even all-in with those big aces.
Although remarkable as it may seem, there are times to fold
those "pocket rockets" and not see a flop. It takes discipline
to do and is all about risk versus reward.
If you're playing single table sit and go tournaments you must
finish in the first three to get a return on your entry fee. We
all know that the great starting hands don't come along too
often and when they do, a lot of players become married to the
hand and can't put it down under any circumstances.
The savy player knows when to fold. And that includes folding AA
pre-flop.
Here's when to consider very carefully when to muck those aces
before the flop.
Back to the scenario. Five players left, you're in fourth place
with those Aces screaming at you to push your chips in. But you
have the advantage being in last position to act. Two players
with bigger stacks than you throw enough chips in the pot to
force you all-in if you decide to play. And now the small stack
in fifth place takes his chances and goes all-in.
The action is now on you. The urge to splash your chips in to
the middle is irresistible. But before you do - this about it
for a moment. As things stand, you can fold your aces now with
the chance of moving in to third place and a money finish
without risk.
If the player in the hand with the biggest stack wins it, he'll
take out the other two with smaller stacks and you instantly get
bumped up to third place and guaranteed money without. And
without risking any of your chips which you still have to fight
with.
Risk = zero. Reward = third place at least and a guaranteed
prize money.
That's when to fold anything pre-flop, not just aces. Throw
anything away at any stage if it means you can move in to the
money without risk.

About the author:
Article written by Andy Machin, author of 22 poker books.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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It is simply RISK vs REWARD as stated above in the above post.

If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and your left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.

This would be TERRIBLE strategy.

Although the instances are rare, there are certainly times in TOURNEY play where the correct move is to fold pocket aces.......to think otherwise would be uncivilized.
 
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Fish,

I still vehemently disagree with that scenario. Specific chip stacks and order of play need to be figured in here, but I'll assume the chip leader is first to act. On the bubble, people will be playing tighter, and the chip leader tends to shove all-in when the blinds are significant (trust me this happens a ton in SNG's at the 200 and 500 level). If the stacks are at a certain level, it is correct to shove all-in with any 2 cards. The 2nd biggest stack is not likely to tangle without a premium hand here, so he is likely way ahead of the chip leader. The 2nd shortest stack also has to have a very premium hand to be the 3rd person in a pot all-in. I would estimate the big stacks chances of winning this pot at around 10%, given the range of hands he could hold.

What the author of that article fails to mention is if the 2nd biggest stack wins the pot, you are the short stack out of 4, and you just passed up AA. If the 2nd shortest stack wins the pot, you are the short stack out of 5, and you just passed up AA. Both of these scenarios are more likely to occur than the situation the author is describing.

I shove my stack in in this case, knowing I am likely 40-50% to win the pot and quadruple up.

Again, there are some assumptions here, but they are necessary because in the authors attempt to seem all knowing and condescending, he failed to mention critical details to the analysis of the hand.

In the case he was describing, I would fold AA if I have 200 in chips out of 10000 in play, with the other stacks being 4000, 3000, 1500, 1300, and blinds of 200-400.
 

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Fishhead said:
It is simply RISK vs REWARD as stated above in the above post.

If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.

This would be TERRIBLE strategy.

Although the instances are rare, there are certainly times in TOURNEY play where the correct move is to fold pocket aces.......to think otherwise would be uncivilized.

Yes you might call all-in with your aces, in fact, I very likely would. Depends highly on the payout. If the payouts are equal between 1st and 9th (satellite situation like I described earlier), than I would muck them. In a regular top heavy payout distribution, I will play them and expect to double up 80% of the time.

The only other caveat is if I am playing way over my head, and 9th place would change my finances or life.
 

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by fishhead
If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.

*****


why would you not call his small stack with AA?? OF COURSE you would since everyone else has folded??? and its to you ? and all you have to add is a small about to your BB to meet his small stack???


unless im understanding you wrong here you would have to be TOTALLY OFF OF YOUR ROCKER not add the few chips needed to call his small all in:icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf
 

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steeser said:
Fish,

I still vehemently disagree with that scenario. Specific chip stacks and order of play need to be figured in here, but I'll assume the chip leader is first to act. On the bubble, people will be playing tighter, and the chip leader tends to shove all-in when the blinds are significant (trust me this happens a ton in SNG's at the 200 and 500 level). If the stacks are at a certain level, it is correct to shove all-in with any 2 cards. The 2nd biggest stack is not likely to tangle without a premium hand here, so he is likely way ahead of the chip leader. The 2nd shortest stack also has to have a very premium hand to be the 3rd person in a pot all-in. I would estimate the big stacks chances of winning this pot at around 10%, given the range of hands he could hold.

What the author of that article fails to mention is if the 2nd biggest stack wins the pot, you are the short stack out of 4, and you just passed up AA. If the 2nd shortest stack wins the pot, you are the short stack out of 5, and you just passed up AA. Both of these scenarios are more likely to occur than the situation the author is describing.

I shove my stack in in this case, knowing I am likely 40-50% to win the pot and quadruple up.

Again, there are some assumptions here, but they are necessary because in the authors attempt to seem all knowing and condescending, he failed to mention critical details to the analysis of the hand.

In the case he was describing, I would fold AA if I have 200 in chips out of 10000 in play, with the other stacks being 4000, 3000, 1500, 1300, and blinds of 200-400.

Agree, or in the type of scenario I stated in my previous post.

So there ARE times in TOURNEY play where this is warranted, whereas in LIVE play there never is.
 
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Dante said:
by fishhead
If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.

*****


why would you not call his small stack with AA?? OF COURSE you would since everyone else has folded??? and its to you ? and all you have to add is a small about to your BB to meet his small stack???


unless im understanding you wrong here you would have to be TOTALLY OFF OF YOUR ROCKER not add the few chips needed to call his small all in:icon_conf :icon_conf :icon_conf

You are, the player with the POCKET aces has the low stack or couple of chips.......of course it would not make sense to fold them if one had a large stack vs. one that is considerably lower.
 

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If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.


I read that as you saying the GUY in the BB has the ACES against the small stack ...is that not what you said here?
 

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Fishhead said:
Agree, or in the type of scenarion I stated in my previous post.

So there ARE times in TOURNEY play where this is warranted, whereas in LIVE play there never is.

Unfortunately for many of the posters here, those times we are describing are not what most are talking about.

Those times are also so infrequently come across, they are literally worthless to even discuss. In all of my lifetime poker play, I have yet to cross this path, and I am a very heavy SNG/tournament player.

If you never folded AA pre-flop for the rest of your life, you would likely only be making an infintesimally small mistake.
 

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Dante said:
If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.


I read that as you saying the GUY in the BB has the ACES against the small stack ...is that not what you said here?

The guy with ACES is small stacked, sorry for the confusion........not worded 100% correctly.
 

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Fishhead said:
I did not edit anything, what are you smoking?

DUDE you said I AM in the BB with MY aces. RE READ IT!!.your DRUNK again!!!:thumbsup2:


If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and one is left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.



DOES this NOT say I am in the BB with MY pocket AA:icon_conf maybe im going crazy!
 

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OK you WIN fish I am OUTTA this thread:drink: :drink: :drink: :suomi:
 

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Dante said:
DUDE you said I AM in the BB with MY aces. RE READ IT!!.your DRUNK again!!!:thumbsup2:


If a tourney pays the TOP NINE spots with 10 players remaining and YOUR left with an extremely low stack or just a few chips and your on the button or in the blinds with POCKET ACES, your not going to call an ALL-IN from one player with your ACES.



DOES this NOT say I am in the BB with MY pocket AA:icon_conf maybe im going crazy!

Ok, "your" will be substituted for the "one" in the beginning of the sentence to make it more clear.
 

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joeyfitzclick said:
I win more $$$ and more often with 7,8 sooted !

:money:


some schmuck, may have been you, on paradisepoker knocked me out with 7-8 suited.

i flopped a set and he flops the nut straight

went all in at the flop and looked at my fate....needed to pair the board, but nada


7-8 beat me
 

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Fishhead said:
<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
<TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" height=102 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom width=466 colSpan=2>Submitted by: Andy M
Perfectblackjack.com

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​





</TD><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD>The action is now on you. The urge to splash your chips in to the middle is irresistible. But before you do - this about it
for a moment. As things stand, you can fold your aces now with
the chance of moving in to third place and a money finish
without risk.
That's when to fold anything pre-flop, not just aces. Throw
anything away at any stage if it means you can move in to the
money without risk.

About the author:
Article written by Andy Machin, author of 22 poker books.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
That's pretty funny. By the way, a search of Amazon.com for this author of 22 poker books turned up ZERO hits. No books. Maybe he is the author of 22 poker words (including this post).
 

WVU

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steeser said:
Unfortunately for many of the posters here, those times we are describing are not what most are talking about.

Those times are also so infrequently come across, they are literally worthless to even discuss. In all of my lifetime poker play, I have yet to cross this path, and I am a very heavy SNG/tournament player.

If you never folded AA pre-flop for the rest of your life, you would likely only be making an infintesimally small mistake.


good post. At least you aren't completely dismissing the fact that folding aces may be warranted at unique times. While those times may be less common for some they do exist. I have folded aces three times in my life. Each time was the correct move. I would have won 2 of the three hands but it was correct to fold nonetheless.
 

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peskypup said:
I personally don't see that doubling your stack early on justifies taking the risk of going out early on. I make the top 3 and prize money about 50% of the time (winning 20%) and rarely go into the top 5 as chip leader. Winning money is 80% about the endgame.

Congrats, you are easily one of the best players in all the world. If you are playing $30 sngs and up, and these are your results that is. With this kind of return you should be a millionaire within the year.
 

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peskypup said:
I personally don't see that doubling your stack early on justifies taking the risk of going out early on. I make the top 3 and prize money about 50% of the time (winning 20%) and rarely go into the top 5 as chip leader. Winning money is 80% about the endgame.

If you have a big stack you can play agressive and make other players make crutial decisions, ie)bully them/steal blinds etc, which is a big part of being successful. Your logic makes no sense to me.
 

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