Due to NBA and NCAAB taking a bigger role this time of the Year I'm finding myself less time to delve too deep into Soccer and post specifics in all Forums. Basically what I'm doing is setting higher trip points before looking further into prices and perceived value and hopefully left with the cream of the Games.
So what I'm going to do is post these Games with my view and feel at home to add anything you think is poignant, the prices I quote are what I would like to get that are reasonable in the market place. One aspect of my capping that needs highlighting is I 'm very tied to figures and try not to get too involved with certain injuries. The reason for this is that in my opinion injuries are overplayed in the price and Punters (mostly ones who cannot work out real prices) cannot get a feel for how much these are worth. The simplest way of putting it is Punters put too much value in one significant injury at the expense of plus or minuses elsewhere.
This weeks games that show a significant advantage are
FULHAM PICK :
Pretty straight forward bet looking at -104 to -106
HERTHA BERLIN +0.5
Not really sure why the books have this view but a half a goal is madness at anything up to -120 hopefully.
STOKE +0.5 & 1
Classic case of a bad Team on the Road blowing up the price against a team who basically are struggling as well meaning they have to win by 2 clear goals, which in the Premiership isnt that easy for any Team. Evens could be a possibility here but too many sharps mean I'll be happy with -104
CAEN:
I havent decided how to play this yet but the Price is based on Two Teams going opposite ways, which is fair enough but I feel with injuries on both sides the knee jerk prices have gone to far on a Home Team. The numbers show a great bias to the Under and although I hate chalk the Under 2.5 is probably the smart bet, however I haven't decided yet.
Hope this forula works for everyone as it gives me more time all round. :drink:
So what I'm going to do is post these Games with my view and feel at home to add anything you think is poignant, the prices I quote are what I would like to get that are reasonable in the market place. One aspect of my capping that needs highlighting is I 'm very tied to figures and try not to get too involved with certain injuries. The reason for this is that in my opinion injuries are overplayed in the price and Punters (mostly ones who cannot work out real prices) cannot get a feel for how much these are worth. The simplest way of putting it is Punters put too much value in one significant injury at the expense of plus or minuses elsewhere.
This weeks games that show a significant advantage are
FULHAM PICK :
Pretty straight forward bet looking at -104 to -106
HERTHA BERLIN +0.5
Not really sure why the books have this view but a half a goal is madness at anything up to -120 hopefully.
STOKE +0.5 & 1
Classic case of a bad Team on the Road blowing up the price against a team who basically are struggling as well meaning they have to win by 2 clear goals, which in the Premiership isnt that easy for any Team. Evens could be a possibility here but too many sharps mean I'll be happy with -104
CAEN:
I havent decided how to play this yet but the Price is based on Two Teams going opposite ways, which is fair enough but I feel with injuries on both sides the knee jerk prices have gone to far on a Home Team. The numbers show a great bias to the Under and although I hate chalk the Under 2.5 is probably the smart bet, however I haven't decided yet.
Hope this forula works for everyone as it gives me more time all round. :drink:
