Over 8.0 (-102)
Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+340)
We've got Lance McCullers and Ranger Suarez starting tonight in Game 3, and I'm backing the over.
Suarez, the Philadelphia Phillies' starter, has a brutal matchup against a Houston Astros lineup that was outstanding against southpaws this year. In the split, Houston posted the third-best wOBA (.340) with the lowest strikeout rate (17.4%). Suarez will need to be at his best to have a good outing, but as a guy who had a 4.11 SIERA and 19.5% strikeout rate in 2022, Suarez doesn't profile as a pitcher who will be able to quiet Houston's deep and talented lineup.
McCullers definitely gives the Astros the edge in the starting-pitching department, and that's a big reason why the Astros are -126 moneyline favorites. McCullers returned from injury late in the year and recorded a 3.96 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate in 47 2/3 innings. He's been good over two playoff starts, as well, giving up three earned runs and punching out 13 over 11 frames.
We project Houston to win by a score of 4.57-4.32. That's 8.89 total runs, and our model has the over cashing 53.1% of the time.
As for props, I'm on Yordan Alvarez to total at least two bases (+115). Alvarez is one of the game's elite bats, and he's excellent against both lefties (.424 wOBA) and righties (.428 wOBA). He'll be in a good spot against Suarez, but he'll also be in a good spot no matter who he sees from the Phillies' bullpen. I don't mind his RBI prop (+150), either.
On the Phillies' side, Rhys Hoskins to go deep (+340) has my eye. McCullers showed reverse splits in 2022, giving up 1.13 homers per nine against righties with a 23.8% strikeout rate in the split. Compare that to a 28.1% strikeout rate and 0.38 dingers per nine to left-handers. Hoskins has five jacks in the playoffs and was much better at home this season (.378 wOBA) than he was on the road (.312 wOBA).
Yordan Alvarez 2+ Total Bases (+115)
Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+340)
We've got Lance McCullers and Ranger Suarez starting tonight in Game 3, and I'm backing the over.
Suarez, the Philadelphia Phillies' starter, has a brutal matchup against a Houston Astros lineup that was outstanding against southpaws this year. In the split, Houston posted the third-best wOBA (.340) with the lowest strikeout rate (17.4%). Suarez will need to be at his best to have a good outing, but as a guy who had a 4.11 SIERA and 19.5% strikeout rate in 2022, Suarez doesn't profile as a pitcher who will be able to quiet Houston's deep and talented lineup.
McCullers definitely gives the Astros the edge in the starting-pitching department, and that's a big reason why the Astros are -126 moneyline favorites. McCullers returned from injury late in the year and recorded a 3.96 SIERA and 25.6% strikeout rate in 47 2/3 innings. He's been good over two playoff starts, as well, giving up three earned runs and punching out 13 over 11 frames.
We project Houston to win by a score of 4.57-4.32. That's 8.89 total runs, and our model has the over cashing 53.1% of the time.
As for props, I'm on Yordan Alvarez to total at least two bases (+115). Alvarez is one of the game's elite bats, and he's excellent against both lefties (.424 wOBA) and righties (.428 wOBA). He'll be in a good spot against Suarez, but he'll also be in a good spot no matter who he sees from the Phillies' bullpen. I don't mind his RBI prop (+150), either.
On the Phillies' side, Rhys Hoskins to go deep (+340) has my eye. McCullers showed reverse splits in 2022, giving up 1.13 homers per nine against righties with a 23.8% strikeout rate in the split. Compare that to a 28.1% strikeout rate and 0.38 dingers per nine to left-handers. Hoskins has five jacks in the playoffs and was much better at home this season (.378 wOBA) than he was on the road (.312 wOBA).
