..a newbie general question about non-usa soccer betting..!!!

[8ate]

..

there seems to be a few puntors who have continued high win rates when playing european (and africa cup) soccer (futbol) bets;..
my question is: Does the fanatacism of soccer fans spill over to the betting so much that books are deliberately putting out lines they know could be beaten; but books know the players and betting patterns; so why give a person a true line; when a
a book can get the same action with a worse line that the partisan fan will consistently bet into..???

this is similiar to usa sports betting where certain big name teams will always have an extra 2-3 % vig due to their popularity..

summing up; is there an underlying reason why soccer could be easier to beat than other sports..???

ty; i have enjoyed your picks and analyses...

gl

 

[chriscol]

ocause more popular team s getting bet heavier, but to be honest i dont think at all that soccer-lines are easier to beat than us-sports...maybe even more difficult due to the general nature of the game (low scoring and lot more continguencies IMO).

If you look at the records of most of the cappers here at the rx, they are all up and IMO the reason is they are all very,very good.
You dont have as many people coming to the soccer forum as to the us-sports, but there is very high quality. You got a lot of people posting in other forum, with prooven loosing records, which maybe indicates the sport is more difficult to cap, but i think it s just the quantity.
Follow the guys in the soccer-forum and you can learn how to do it and you will for sure be in positive. You can pick whoever you like or take them all..it doesnt matter.

 

[8ate]

...chriscol...

..

.. Thank you, sir, for your answer; as it does seem that the caliber of capper is generally higher here; in soccer; and it may just be that there are few (or nil) recreational posters who would give their picks and "water down" the overall % win rate;

one does have to know the cappers in the busier usa sports forums; or the player will not gain much long term value; but following a few select cappers in each sport is generally helpfull...

Anyway, i am very impressed with your abilities and enjoy your picks and thinking

gl and ty for your valuable input

gl

:toast:

 

[jwunderdog]

Most of these guys here, know what they are doing. Duckstabber's has been extemely hot and I would expect his win% to decline but still profitable. I have been following Duck and Chriscol for years, they both know exactly what they are doing. Jack Dee as well has been around a long time, but haven't tracked him.

There are other guys here that are doing extremely well, but they just don't have the history behind them like the three mentioned above.GL,
Duck and Chriscol, are the only two cappers I have ever followed blind in any sport.:toast:

 

[Duckstabber]

8ate,

I don't think soccer is easier or harder to beat than any other sport. Perhaps the lines in the smaller leagues aren't as sharp as the lines for EPL, Primera etc. but on the other hand it's also harder to cap those leagues due to lack of reliable info.

Sometimes the more popular teams get bet heavier but imo rarely enough to change the line significantly. There are exceptions of course but generally the sharps will keep the line in shape. Well, in short, I agree with Chris on this matter.

"one does have to know the cappers in the busier usa sports forums; or the player will not gain much long term value; but following a few select cappers in each sport is generally helpfull"

Who do you follow? There are lots a great cappers but also lots of mediocre/bad ones who just happend to be up this season. The ones I follow are Railbird, Fishhead, Kapusta, SSI, Action, Micelli, Tomorrow's Newspaper, Bucsfan. For soccer I follow Chris for 1. Bundesliga and sometimes Jack the Greek League.


jwunderdog,

I can tell you for sure that my win % will decline! I've had a great start this year but 30-40 picks doesn't tell you anything about a capper's skills - let's see how I'm doing once we get to the World Cup. (Oh, btw, can't wait for that!) And dog, thank you for the kind words!

 

[acw]

Perhaps the lines in the smaller leagues aren't as sharp as the lines for EPL, Primera etc. but on the other hand it's also harder to cap those leagues due to lack of reliable info.

At least you will find the most accurate line moves on them!

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/osm/story/0,6903,1677743,00.html

Only two leagues are worse than the Belgian:
Argentinia and how surprising China!

 

[JackDee]

this started out as an "on demand" forum by some of us regulars a few years ago and has grown steadily ever since, never reaching the levels of other fora here, and certainly not the popularity of other more european oriented soccer fora on the internet, but, imo, outweighing them in terms of quality. The amount of junk that is found in terms of betting on the internet, fora, advisory services, tipsters etc. etc. by far outweighs the useful, quality ones, by about, i would wager, the same rough percentage of 95% to 5% that it's rumoured to represent to winning to losing gamblers ratio. To tell you the truth I just can't be bothered to read any of the other soccer forums (all except one which i visit from time to time, but I am not here to promote), because I can't plough through all the shit to get to any decent piece of info. And the fact that this forum is one of the best here is because of the love of the game and betting some regulars have and who post not as a means of later promoting a betting service (although I d have no problem with that) or because they got nothing better to do or because they are the nth handle of someone out to get more traffic or working for the bookmakers, but because they genuinely like sharing with others and it feels like home here...well enough with the sappiness...

As to your enquiries I ll have to say that team preference plays little or no role in betting lines imo, and figures very little if at all in the betting market. Football fans, and football betting fans are too distinct entities, and although a football betting fans team preference might influence a few of his or her bets, that's only going to be a very small percentage of their total bets.

"this is similiar to usa sports betting where certain big name teams will always have an extra 2-3 % vig due to their popularity.."

No, that's definately not the case here.

Now as to what's easier to beat, I d say football (soccer that is) but that's just because I know far more about it than any u.s. sport. But I also think u.s. sports such as baseball and basketball are much easier to quantify and hence set the lines for than soccer which requires a certain flair, or art to it.

"Jack Dee as well has been around a long time, but haven't tracked him."



http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=139252

Unfortunately this good run of mine was cut short by my triumphant europian cup winning visit to Portugal with the Greek team.

Seriously though, I am not any betting guru, long way to that, but I can say I am decent, or even good.

 

[Duckstabber]

At least you will find the most accurate line moves on them!

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/osm/story/0,6903,1677743,00.html

Only two leagues are worse than the Belgian:
Argentinia and how surprising China!

Interesting read! Acw, be sure to let us know when you get the word of a fixed game! ;-)

 

[JackDee]

this is all over the papers here too, an together with the hoyzer scandal come to show what I ve been crying on top o my lungs all along, that fixed games have always been here, and that they happen everyday in every different way, when there's a lot of money involved, dishonesty is rampant. The fact that two major european leagues and ones that are supposedly high profile against corruption have been in it, comes to show that not only no league is immune, but that smaller leagues must be even more corrupt. From the 2002 world cup to these ones we have witnessed it, it sure as hell is not the first time, and sure as hell wont be the last.

Bottom line, try figuring out to which way the fix is on, or on a lighter scale where the "politics" of the game would have the resut land.

 

[chriscol]

this is all over the papers here too, an together with the hoyzer scandal come to show what I ve been crying on top o my lungs all along, that fixed games have always been here, and that they happen everyday in every different way, when there's a lot of money involved, dishonesty is rampant. The fact that two major european leagues and ones that are supposedly high profile against corruption have been in it, comes to show that not only no league is immune, but that smaller leagues must be even more corrupt. From the 2002 world cup to these ones we have witnessed it, it sure as hell is not the first time, and sure as hell wont be the last.

Bottom line, try figuring out to which way the fix is on, or on a lighter scale where the "politics" of the game would have the resut land.

that'S what we have our friend for the greek league for :toast: . i always thought that the greek football is the most coruppt of all in europe (without eastern europe). i dont have proof, i just dont play these games,besides i got info here.

But in general you are right. who cares if the result is fixed in any-kind of sport. you can still choose the right side.
I am still pissed that i lost on seattle in the super bowl, especially in the aftermath it looked all so obvious the pitsb was supposed to win.:Sad Face:

 

[Duckstabber]

I laughed all the way to the bank after the Super Bowl! Seahawks were clearly better than Steelers so my Pitt -4 bet was an extremely lucky winner.

 

[jwunderdog]

"jwunderdog,

I can tell you for sure that my win % will decline! I've had a great start this year but 30-40 picks doesn't tell you anything about a capper's skills - let's see how I'm doing once we get to the World Cup. (Oh, btw, can't wait for that!) And dog, thank you for the kind words! '

Duck I wasn't trying to kiss your ass, just thought that you and Chriscol deserve some third party props. It's funny I have been around this forum since 2001, know nothing about soccer yet I only follow you and Chriscol and no one else in any other sport. Reason being you two have a long track record of success more then any poster in any forum at the RX. I laugh when I see posters touting someone who's hot this year, but no other "winning" history to go by. You and Chriscol are the exception and I appreciate you sharing. BOL<!-- / message -->

 

[Duckstabber]

Duck I wasn't trying to kiss your ass...

I'm well aware of that! Again, thank you for the kind words. :toast:

 

[chriscol]

Also thx for kind words,always nice to help :thumbsup2: and see people following.

 

[JackDee]

"i always thought that the greek football is the most coruppt of all in europe (without eastern europe). i dont have proof, i just dont play these games,besides i got info here."

No one ever has proof chris, if we did then we wouldn't be here but on a cruiser at the bahamas taking it real easy, and that's what all those people that fall into three categories, the ignorant and naive, the hypocritical, and those who got their fingers in the pie will tell you: Yeah but have you got proof? Of course you can't have proof, that doesn't mean you don't have the right to suppose what's blatantly obvious by the look of it, what do they want as proof videos, tapes? If you aim at such proof you might find your upper head on the wrong side of the gutter. Hence you got every right in assuming that the Greek league is one of the more corrupt, or so I thought at least, but it seems the tie wearing hollier than though Belgians have outdone us once more in terms of leachery and corruption. And let's not forget hoyzer. In greec you ll find that the big teams get all the ref. calls, but nothing of the scale of what happened in belgium, and lesser leagues hoyzers abound. And lets not forget the uefa game of panionios last year that hoyzer himself has declared knowledge about. But there are always angles that one has to know of course and were I come in, but there again you have to be extra careful you are not taking the bait, but are trying to take a deeper look, and a clearer one.

now can I get some ego stroking ass kissing too? LOLLLLL.

 

[jwunderdog]

"now can I get some ego stroking ass kissing too? LOLLLLL."

I have gotten lazy don't track anyone else any more!! Use the word "lock" in all your plays and bump your thread 25 times everytime you have a good day!! Make up a couple of "ghost" posters to help you bump your thread.:missingte <!-- / message -->

 

[Duckstabber]

now can I get some ego stroking ass kissing too? LOLLLLL.

My sarcasm detector picked up on something here! Jack, if you want some ego stroking ass kissing, I can give it to you: You're doing a great job with you Select Plays - especially this year you've started out red hot. But you're not the easiest poster to follow for anyone who'd like to do that. Odd leagues, odd books, odd types of wagers, fast moving prices. (Sometimes, that is...) Not a thing in the world wrong with that but following your picks 100% is not a job for the white man. (Sorry about the political incorrectness in that statement :missingte )

 

[JackDee]

jwunderdog, lol! That's the recipe of success for sure along the lines of the rodfather and henhouse...

duck,
nah it wasn't sarcastic, it was self deprecating humour.

But you're not the easiest poster to follow for anyone who'd like to do that. Odd leagues, odd books, odd types of wagers, fast moving prices

It's just my home league, the greek one, and then what? belgium, dutch, primera, portuguese, turkish, uefa those are my selections so far. And almost all are 1x2 lines and handicaps, and a couple of half time draws, that's not very exotic. As for odd books, i try to post prices available at betfair and so far, the vast majority of my bets have either been available there or at some reputable shops such as pinnacle and I have posted at some shit books (for some, because a lot of people bet there, but I know you can't get anything higher than 500 euros if you win with any consistency) like expekt, but no betandwin types for sure. As for the fast moving prices, I ll take that as a compliment if i can post a bet and have the line move in my favour for about 10% all the time then I am in for some good profits for sure, but I don't bet steam and most of the time the prices are readily available. With a prime example last week at the greek league where yours truly was "sharp" enough to post a play a few days prior and have the line move against me by 10%, which of course is not a good thing for me, but any takers would have actually made a 10% profit on top of what I have recorded. I hope you are not insinuating, and I am quite sure you aren't, that the prices I quote are so fast moving that they weren't actually there to begin with because I keep every betting slip and i routinely record all betbrain odds, plus I am using a couple of paid services for collective odds in excel. In any case I am not a paid service so i post whenever i get the time and I try to post in as much time in advance for most to bet if they wish too, and as little time in advance so as to have all the information required, of course if i were doing this for money you d get far more consistency, but i am only doing it for sharing and fun and only recently since work wouldn't permit me posting and I went through a long hiatus which i might go through again if my "day" job forces me to. So in essense I hear what you are saying but consider a few things too. Now let me see if that schalke bet has moved at all. What I can say for sure is that whenever I post, and I am being dead honest here, I am being extra careful to not sway anyone on the wrong side, and I am being particularly cautious to not cost anyone any money ever. And let me recount something, a summer ago before I left for portugal to watch the euro and the greek team I had turned 100 betting units to 150, a 50% increase in bankroll and with very non risky wagering and staking and i got the regular props which i am happy i did...Then a couple of months later, hadn't even posted for some time, i am in the politics forum going on about my leftist propaganda and a guy comes up and after we get into a really heated argument he goes, oh btw jack thanks for helping me make a good sum of money on the side last summer with your euro picks, i at least owe you a beer if we ever meet, a guy I d never "talked" to or posted in my thread. And you know what, It felt so fucking good, made me feel, you know, real proud and happy with myself. And that's what posting here is for me, as i had trailed other people back in the days, people that were honest and decent gamblers that could turn some profit, and some which i never even got the time to thank, so it is that now that i can help where i can i am doing it for that single person that might come up and say, hey you helped me out cheers. Well enough with my rambling.

bol.

Jack.