A look at NBA Championship prop bets

[MAGAking1]

Nuggets vs. Heat series props​

2023 Finals MVP: Jamal Murray (+1400)​

Murray is currently 14/1 to win the next Finals MVP award, whereas his imposing teammate Nikola Jokic is heavily juiced (-360) in the same market. If you caught my 2023 Finals prediction piece, you know that I am confident in Denver’s chances to win its first NBA title. If the award somehow does not go to Jokic, then Murray will likely be the next one up. At 14/1, a small play on Murray to win Finals MVP would pay out exponentially.

Series Exact Result: Nuggets 4-2 (+400)​

Bringing back 4/1 money, “Nuggets in 6” is a very enticing prop. Thus far in these playoffs, only the Suns have been able to hand Denver more than one loss in a series. Also, the Nuggets have not lost at all since May 7. I think Miami has better coaching than anyone else Denver has seen this postseason. I believe the Heat will win at least one game and perhaps even two. With a +400 payback, I like a chance on the Nuggets to win the 2023 Finals 4-2. For reference, “Nuggets 4-1 +265” and “Nuggets 4-3 +310” have shorter odds in this market.

Highest Scoring Single-Game Performance: Nikola Jokic (+135)​

Here’s something a little more straightforward: At +135, I think Jokic will record the highest single-game point total in the 2023 Finals. Candidly, I’m all for any Jokic vs. the Field prop at plus-money, but his Finals MVP price is too steep for my liking. Jokic is currently leading scoring in the postseason, having averaged 29.9 ppg through 15 postseason contests in 2023. Over his previous three series, Jokic’s high-point nights have seen him score 43 (Game 4 vs. MIN), 53 (Game 4 vs. PHX) and 34 (Game 1 vs. LAL).

 

[MAGAking1]

2023 NBA Finals assists leader odds via DraftKings Sportsbook​

Nikola Jokic: -20000
Jimmy Butler: +1400
Jamal Murray: +1700
Kyle Lowry: +10000
Gabe Vincent: +10000


There’s a chasm between Jokic and everybody else in this market, with a secondary gap between Murray and the two Heat guards. Assists are largely about usage, and the three players at the top of this odds table are going to have the most usage. There’s a reason Jokic is so highly rated on this prop. He totaled 47 assists in the last series, with Murray coming in at 21 dimes. Butler tallied 43 assists in the East finals, while Lowry (27) and Vincent (13) were well behind him.

Best bet: Jimmy Butler (+1400)​

You can bet on Jokic, but there’s no payout unless you pair this market with other props. The big man topped Butler by four dimes despite playing three less games, so we can assume this is a wrap. However, Butler does offer the best value among the realistic alternate options.


The Heat are going to need their star to do most of the heavy lifting offensively. While that mostly focuses on scoring points, Miami’s peripheral players hitting shots is important. A lot of those shots are going to come off Butler’s drives, which means Butler is most likely going to be in a position to deliver the lead pass. If the shots keep falling down, Butler has a chance to edge Jokic in total assists. It’s a slim chance bordering on none, but there’s actual betting upside here as opposed to a -20000 next to Jokic.

 

[MAGAking1]

2023 NBA Finals three-pointers leader odds via DraftKings Sportsbook​

Jamal Murray: -175
Michael Porter Jr.: +380
Max Strus: +700
Caleb Martin: +900
Gabe Vincent: +1400
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: +1800
Kyle Lowry: +7500
Nikola Jokic: +8000
Jimmy Butler: +8000


It makes sense to have Murray and Porter Jr. at the top of this market, largely because they get high-quality looks from deep off passes from Nikola Jokic. Both players were excellent from deep in the previous series. Murray had 15 triples, while Porter Jr. was next up with 14. Martin was able to can 22 triples in seven games against the Celtics and Strus was great with 16 triples but both Murray and Porter Jr. would’ve beat them shooting the same percentage they did in four games over a seven-game series.

Best bet: Michael Porter Jr. (+380)​

Porter Jr. had four less attempts that Murray in the previous series, but only made one less three-pointer than Murray. The Heat are much more likely to key in on Denver’s point guard instead of a forward who picks and chooses his spots, which gives Porter Jr. a little bit of an edge. There’s also the payout, which is much better than Murray’s -175 number. Take Porter Jr. as the superior value play here.

 

[MAGAking1]

2023 NBA Finals scoring leader odds via DraftKings Sportsbook​

Nikola Jokic: +115
Jimmy Butler: +160
Jamal Murray: +250
Bam Adebayo: +2500
Michael Porter Jr.: +3000
Caleb Martin: +3500
Gabe Vincent: +6000
Max Strus: +7000
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: +10000
Aaron Gordon: +10000

Best bet: Nikola Jokic (+115)​

Jokic scored 111 points in the Western Conference Finals, while Murray tallied 130. Butler finished with 173 points for the Heat but over seven games compared to four for the Nugetts’ players. Despite the performance for Murray in the WCF, Jokic is the best bet here. The longer this series goes, the more that it favors him. Denver is going to continue to play through him and whether it is second-chance points or structured plays to get open, Jokic has the best chance to lead the NBA Finals in scoring.

 

[HacheMan]

We all know Jokic will probably win MVP, but that's good value on Murray and it could realistically happen

 

[MAGAking1]

new mvp odds

 

[MAGAking1]

new mvp odds

 

[skoda]

We all know Jokic will probably win MVP, but that's good value on Murray and it could realistically happen

He needs to show up tonight!

 

[MAGAking1]

Monster fave.....I like Murray for a small bet though