Gentlemen,
I bid you a good day. I am an individual who essentially lives and breathes futbol. I'm able to dedicate about 5-10 hours per day to capping, watching, analyzing and wagering on futbol.
I pride myself on Primera Division, Premier League, Champions League and also South America (Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana).
I am also an avid statistical guru and (funny enough) find value in resources such as FIFA and Football Manager. *These actually do come in handy believe it or not for wagering.
My advice to all of you is this: Look at the single most important aspect that the game totals, spreads, and money lines offered hinder upon. Once you find that single aspect, you branch out and use your best judgement to find the best proposition to wager on.
Don't mistake this for being the 'best value'. Many times the best proposition is to take the -150 through -235 juice being paid. It's about winning.
This is the key, however. From watching thousands of futbol matches, you need to essentially think about the wager you are about to place in it's most simplistic form.
1. What is the most important aspect this game is going to hinder on. (i.e. "X").
2. What are the chances that X occurs.
3. What propositions are being offered that correlate to X occurring.
4. What are my 'outs' in live betting that I have in case X does or does not occur.
Let me provide you with an example that happened in a Champions League Real Madrid vs. Basel game:
When looking at the line, the whole game depended on whether RM got an early, first goal (under 25-30 minutes).
If we put out of our minds the actual result of what did happened for a second, think about the logical progression.
IF Real Madrid score an early goal, that means the game is likely (1) going over, (2) madrid will cover, and (3) Basel may score 1 goal that game.
Guess what happened? Madrid scored early, and each of those propositions occurred.
However... IF Basel held out and Madrid didn't score early and the game went into half time 0-0. The game would have likely gone as follows:
Basel plays 9 men behind the ball. RM retains possession and attempts to probe. Maybe RM gets 1 or 2 goals. Game goes under, RM doesn't cover, Basel doesn't score (no offensive production).
So my friends.... what would you agree that this game rose and fell on, AND what would the best proposition bet have been?
For the record, noting the above game...
This doesn't 'guarantee' you win 100%, because you don't. But this is also why point #4 listed above is critical to identifying BEFORE things go wrong.
I lost the RM v Basel wager because RM scored the early goal. HOWEVER, I knew how to live bet on another proposition to recover my initial proposition loss.
I ended up even because of this method.
Rule #1: Protect your roll.
Rule #2: Breaking Even for the day is better than a loss.
Sincerely,
DNI Mourinho
I bid you a good day. I am an individual who essentially lives and breathes futbol. I'm able to dedicate about 5-10 hours per day to capping, watching, analyzing and wagering on futbol.
I pride myself on Primera Division, Premier League, Champions League and also South America (Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana).
I am also an avid statistical guru and (funny enough) find value in resources such as FIFA and Football Manager. *These actually do come in handy believe it or not for wagering.
My advice to all of you is this: Look at the single most important aspect that the game totals, spreads, and money lines offered hinder upon. Once you find that single aspect, you branch out and use your best judgement to find the best proposition to wager on.
Don't mistake this for being the 'best value'. Many times the best proposition is to take the -150 through -235 juice being paid. It's about winning.
This is the key, however. From watching thousands of futbol matches, you need to essentially think about the wager you are about to place in it's most simplistic form.
1. What is the most important aspect this game is going to hinder on. (i.e. "X").
2. What are the chances that X occurs.
3. What propositions are being offered that correlate to X occurring.
4. What are my 'outs' in live betting that I have in case X does or does not occur.
Let me provide you with an example that happened in a Champions League Real Madrid vs. Basel game:
When looking at the line, the whole game depended on whether RM got an early, first goal (under 25-30 minutes).
If we put out of our minds the actual result of what did happened for a second, think about the logical progression.
IF Real Madrid score an early goal, that means the game is likely (1) going over, (2) madrid will cover, and (3) Basel may score 1 goal that game.
Guess what happened? Madrid scored early, and each of those propositions occurred.
However... IF Basel held out and Madrid didn't score early and the game went into half time 0-0. The game would have likely gone as follows:
Basel plays 9 men behind the ball. RM retains possession and attempts to probe. Maybe RM gets 1 or 2 goals. Game goes under, RM doesn't cover, Basel doesn't score (no offensive production).
So my friends.... what would you agree that this game rose and fell on, AND what would the best proposition bet have been?
For the record, noting the above game...
This doesn't 'guarantee' you win 100%, because you don't. But this is also why point #4 listed above is critical to identifying BEFORE things go wrong.
I lost the RM v Basel wager because RM scored the early goal. HOWEVER, I knew how to live bet on another proposition to recover my initial proposition loss.
I ended up even because of this method.
Rule #1: Protect your roll.
Rule #2: Breaking Even for the day is better than a loss.
Sincerely,
DNI Mourinho
