A future political bet i'm pulling the trigger on

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have been contemplating this for a while.....it's a long time to have money holed up but i think there is a ton of value here.

Edwards +1011 (WSEX)

Is he the favorite...no....but i'd probably put him at about 4/1 or 5/1 assuming Gore does not run. I could write a long email but here is a recent exchange between my friend and I regarding the election.
 

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When asked if there was value at 9-1 (now 10-1)

Based on what we know now, yes. There's an easy argument to make for him winning Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina. If he wins 3 of the first 4 states, he's got a strong shot at that point. The counter argument is that if he doesn't win Iowa he is cooked. Hillary and Obama can hang around until Super Tuesday even if they win nothing, Edwards doesn't have that margin for error.

Something to keep in mind. Edwards is the only viable white male in the race and I think that matters. I talked to xxxxx about this recently and he had an interesting point. First, Hillary simply will not play. Second, there are concerns that Obama's race could be a reall issue...unfortunately. Third, Edwards has a good populist message and is strong with the unions. That will matter in the primaries and may make Edwards the safe choice for those concerned about Obama and Hillary.

About 2 weeks before Iowa folks will get pragmatic about who is the "most electable." Somehow that gave us John Kerry last time who was more electable than the even more liberal Howard Dean. Although I wouldn't discount the fact that Hillary is the only woman running for the nomination in the mommy party. All the male candidates may split 65% of the vote and Hillary may be able to win by getting 35% every time. Edwards makes sense to me...at least today.
 

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Past Iowa Caucus winners

Democrats
 

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so with the exception of 1992 (where an Iowa native ran) and 1988 (Gephardt huge with Unions and from neighboring state Missouri)...every democrat after 1972 to win Iowa has gone on to win the nomination.

Edwards is near the top of every Iowa poll, finished 2nd in 04 (name sticks), is big with the unions, and has basically camped out in Iowa since 04.

This is a live dog if there has ever been one.
 

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Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

In Iowa, a new Zogby telephone survey shows John Edwards leading the Democratic presidential race with 26%, edging out Sen. Hillary Clinton at 24% and Sen. Barack Obama at 22%.
 

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Very tight in Iowa

Tight Races in Iowa

In Iowa, a new Research 2000 poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards locked in a tight race for the Democratic presidential nomination, 28% to 26%, with Sen. Barack Obama at 22% and Gov. Bill Richardson at 7%.
 

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The latest

Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

In the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, John Edwards leads the Democratic presidential race with 29% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 23% , Sen. Hillary Clinton at 21% and Gov. Bill Richardson at 10%.

Key finding: "Edwards, a dogged campaigner, has almost made Iowa his second home since first making a bid for the White House four years ago... Edwards’ familiarity to Iowa Democrats appears to have bred much more respect than contempt. Eight in 10 likely caucus participants have favorable feelings about the candidate."
 

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