Sebastian Korda (-124) over Karen Khachanov
It's been a fantastic Australian Open for the American men, but it isn't necessarily the names you would expect to be leading the way. Sebastian Korda is one of three to make it into the quarterfinals, and he's the only one of that trio who was seeded entering the tournament.While Korda has a tough test ahead of him against Karen Khachanov, we should like his chances of advancing to his first-ever Grand Slam semifinals.
Over the last 52 weeks, Korda has amassed an impressive 33-16 record on hard courts (67.3%), and he's now gone 8-1 in 2023 with wins over Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, and Hubert Hurkacz -- all players ranked in the top 11. His only loss came against Novak Djokovic in the Adelaide 1 final, a tight match that went three sets.
Khachanov is in great form, though, with big wins over Frances Tiafoe and Yoshihito Nishioka over the past two rounds, the latter of which was a dominant straight sets win. He's really had his serve going, too, logging an ace rate above 12% in all four matches this tournament. This also marks his second straight deep run at a slam, as he made it to the semifinals at last year's US Open.
However, the Russian hasn't been quite as successful as Korda overall on hard courts across the last 52 weeks (60.5% win percentage). Korda has beaten Khachanov in two of their three matches, too, with both victories coming in straight sets on hard courts in 2022.
Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Korda has a 60.7% chance of winning, which gives us some solid value at -124 (55.4% implied win odds).
If you're looking for other ways to bet this, you can consider Over 39.5 Total Match Games (-118) in a match that could easily go the distance, and Sebastian Korda wins the match and both players win a set (+164) can potentially net an even bigger profit.
