"Green Bay @ CHICAGO
Green Bay +3½ over CHICAGO
Pinnacle +3½ -113 BET365 +3 +100 SportsInteraction +3 +100 5DIMES +3 +100 888Sport +3 +100
Posted at 12:00 PM EST
8:20 PM EST. It’s the most wonderful time of the year. The night’s are cooling down, the kids are back in school and the greatest market company in the world gets back to business with a matchup between one of the oldest and greatest rivals of all time and if you are thinking about wagering on the Bears, you had better pull the trigger right now because you will pay a steeper price after dinner. However, if you’re on board with us, you will wait until just before game time to back this underdog because we’re anticipating getting +4 or even +4½ much later in the day.
With this being a prime time game and the first game of the year, it’s going to take a truckload of action. This entire market will be watching and wagering tonight and we want to focus on that for a second because it’s relevant. You see, in Week 1, the media has a massive influence on the market. Massive. All we know and learn about these teams in a new season is through said media and in that regard, Chicago is one of the media’s sweetheart teams this year. The Bears are picked by every media outlet to win the NFC North and they are also one of the favorites to represent the NFC in February. Meanwhile, the Packers are getting no media love but plenty of oddsmakers love. In 40 million instances, we’d trust the oddsmakers opinion over the media’s 100% of the time.
Season win totals have Green Bay and Chicago tied at 9½ each. Interesting, no? This is also the first year in a very long time that the Green Bay Packers are completely under the radar. Have you watched any TV previewing the upcoming season? All they want to talk about is K.C., Chicago, the ‘Boys. New England and the Rams. The Jets and Giants always get press because they are in New York and the Raiders are getting some press too because of Antonio Brown and because they’re the Raiders. For the first time in a couple of decades, the Packers are getting very little press.
Ya’ all know that Aaron Rodgers is healthy, correct? For the record, Rodgers threw for nearly 300 yards in both showdowns with Chicago last season while averaging a healthy 277.6 passing yards per contest. That’s important because one has to keep in mind the fact that those numbers came via former head coach Mike McCarthy's stale and predictable passing offense that the Bears had faced 27 times since 2006. This version of the Green Bay offense, led by first-time head coach Matt LaFleur, is sure to offer a few new wrinkles. Additionally, the vaunted Chicago defense is transitioning from iconic defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano. Nothing against Pagano, but he's not Fangio and that figures to benefit Rodgers and the Packers greatly.
Meanwhile Mitch Trubisky cleared 250 passing yards in only five of 15 games last season and none of them were against Green Bay’s brutal defense. The Green Bay pass defense should be better after adding Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage at safety, signing Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith to rejuvenate the pass rush, and with young corners Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Josh Jackson all expected to be active.
We get the hype on Chicago because they went 12-4 last year and because Khalil Mack is healthy. However, how many times have we seen a team overachieve one year and then experience a big dropoff the following year? Minnesota last season is a great example of that and this year, it is the Bears that are in line for regression after a massive regular season. Maybe the Bears are as good as advertised but here’s what we know for sure. We know that Rodgers is great while Trubinsky is below average. We know the Bears are hyped up while the Packers are not. Now throw in some points with Rodgers over Trubisky in what is becoming more of a passing league every year and we know precisely where the value lies in this Thursday night opener.
Again, if you’re on board with this wager, wait until after dinner to make your wager because the price is sure to get better. We’ll update our wager to an official play sometime after 7:30 and well before kickoff. Enjoy."
:smoking: