6ers - series vs Game 4

[HarryCaray]

Looking for some guidance here.
Assuming I like the 6ers to win tonight, is there any merit in just taking Philly for the series instead of game 4?
Series line I see is -125, game 4 ML is -135
Cheaper price, plus if they lose tonight the series is still 2-2 and bet has a reasonable chance of still cashing.

I guess what I'm looking for help on is what is the %age they win the series if they go up 3-1.
Anyone have guesses on what that series line would be?

 

[HarryCaray]

implied odds of a win tonight is around 55%

Chance of winning the series bet = (odds they win tonight)*(odds they win the series if up 3-1) + (odds they lose tonight)*(odds they win the series if 2-2)

If 6ers go up 3-1 they are what, -600? Implied 85%
If tied 2-2 they are what, +225? Implied 31%

= (.55)*(.85)+(.45)*(.31) = 61%???

 

[HarryCaray]

Even if -400 when 3-1 and +300 when 2-2 in the above scenarios the implied win %age is roughly equal and I'm getting a better price...

 

[HarryCaray]

Game 4 ML now -160
Series -130

Even bigger disparity.

 

[HarryCaray]

Well I did end up taking the series instead of game, luckily
We'll see if it pays off. Interested to see the series line tomorrow.