'68 system for monday

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notes on the 4d Chase system from 2004:

4D Stats - 2004

Chase records for last years season up to the last 2 weeks when I pulled the plug.

RF (bet on after 2 losses in a row)
Game 1 - 56-23 (71%)
Game 2 - 73-6 (92%)
Game 3 - 75-4 (95%)
Game 4 - 77-2 (97%)

Losing series
Arizona 7/30, 8/10, 8/5, 9/2
Houston 5/22, 5/3, 5/24, 5/31

RD (bet against after 2 wins in a row)
Game 1 - 64-48 (57%)
Game 2 - 97-15 (87%)
Game 3 - 107-5 (96%)
Game 4 - 109-3 (97%

Losing series
Anaheim 4/7, 4/8, 4/23, 4/24
Cincy 5/16, 5/31, 6/1, 6/2

HD (bet against after 2 wins in a row)
Game 1 - 24-17 (59%)
Game 2 - 33-8 (80%)
Game 3 - 36-5 (88%)
Game 4 - 40-1 (98%)

Losing series
TX 4/25, 5/1, 5/2, 5/21

HF (bet on after 2 losses in a row)
Game 1 - 73-58 (56&)
Game 2 - 109-22 (83%)
Game 3 - 121-10 (92%)
Game 4 - 130-2 (98%)

Losing series
CWS 7/27, 7/28, 8/6, 8/7
TOR 4/7, 4/16, 4/17, 5/3

RD (bet on after 5 losses in a row)
Game 1 - 9-24 (27%)
Game 2 - 14-19 (42%)
Game 3 - 23-10 (70%)
Game 4 - 28-5 (85%)

Losing series
Pitt (X2)
6/12, 6/13, 6/21, 6/22
9/3, 9/4, 9/5, 9/13
Ariz 9/8, 9/9, 9/11, 9/12
Seattle 7/4, 7/8, 7/9, 7/10
KC 4/30, 5/1, 5/2, 5/5

HD (bet on after 5 losses in a row)
Game 1 - 5-6 (45%)
Game 2 - 7-4 (64%)
Game 3 - 10-1 (91%)
Game 4 - 10-1 (91%)

Losing series
Milwaukee 9/14, 9/15, 9/16, 9/20

Notes - After 6/1 only 3 series lost betting on a FAV and if you had waited until after 6/1 to start Cincy would have been a winner.
 

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After last year and looking over previous years, waiting until the last week of May/first week of June would be the safest thing under the original setup.

But this year, I've elected to go 1 week into the season, ending with about 1 week left.

But the first 2 months and last 2 months, I'm waiting 3 games before chasing.
The 2 months in the middle waiting 2 days.
So the season set-up games look like this:

April-May - Waiting 3X
June-July - Waiting 2X
August-September - Waiting 3X

This raises the chase completion numbers, but lowers the actual amount of chases....
 

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I also love the Simple Home Chase:

parameters below:

2009 Simple Home Chase Final Results

First off, not the season I was hoping for after last season's +44 units. Oh well. We learned a few things that may really help next year. I really like the "AFC" for one thing.

I am going to have a break down of the system from May through August like last year and a separate total for September. I don't like the feeling of September. Definitely too many variables going on.

2009 May-August SHC (42-9 +8.29 units)
2009 May-August AFC (14-1 +14.50 units)
2009 May-August SHC+AFC (56-10 +22.79 units)

2009 September SHC (-2.01 units so far)
2009 September AFC (-1.59 units so far)
2009 September SHC+AFC (-3.60 units so far)

There is one AFC that I will be playing on this last weekend of Baseball. The St Louis Cardinals qualify. There are some SHC also. I'm not playing these, but will track them for the records.

Arizona@Chicago -184
Washington@Atlanta -225
Chicago@Detroit -No line out yet
Texas@Seattle -Pending outcome

Milwaukee@St Louis -158 "AFC"



SIMPLE HOME CHASE-RECORDS

2007-After the All-Star Break (39-5) No units kept.
2008-May-August (85-13 +44 Units)
2008-September (16-2) No units kept.
2009-April edition (36-4 +24 units) No filters for April.
2009-May-August (42-9 +8.29 units)
2009-May-August "AFC" (16-1 +14.50 units)

*Special thanks to Houstonfan for posting these.

Simple Home Chase Filters-Based on the start of the series.
1. Home team is .500 or better at home.
2. Home team is at least 5-5 last 10 games.
3. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
4. Home team must lose first game.
5. For 4 game sets, home team must lose first 2 games.

*2009 Added Filter-The home team must be the favorite to be a chase. If game 1 of the chase is lost and the home team is a dog for game 2, then the chase is abandoned and we take the one game loss.
 

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notes from 2009 BDnews from May 2009:

bDNews Chase 101-3 +12.39 Units YTD 5/29

Home Favorites (Bet ON after 2 losses in a row)

Game 1 = 30-16
Game 2 = 9-8
Game 3 = 5-2
Game 4 = 2-0
Game 5 =

Chase results: 46-0 with 1 pending (ROCKIES)


Home Dogs (Bet AGAINST after 2 wins in a row)

Game 1 = 8-2
Game 2 = 0-2
Game 3 = 1-0
Game 4 =

Chase results: 9-0 with 1 pending (PADRES)



Road Favorites (Bet ON after 2 losses in a row)

Game 1 = 9-6
Game 2 = 3-2
Game 3 = 0-1
Game 4 = 1-0

Chase results: 13-0 with 2 pending (CUBS, BLUE JAYS)



Road Dogs (Bet AGAINST after 2 wins in a row)

Game 1 = 20-16
Game 2 = 12-5
Game 3 = 1-3
Game 4 = 0-3 (Brewers -26.6, Rangers -30.1, Dodgers -31.91)
Game 5 = 2-0

Chase results: 33-3 with 1 pending (ANGELS)

FRIDAY’S GAMES:
RF ON REDS (GM 1)
HF ON ROCKIES (GM 3)
RF ON BRAVES (GM 1)

As a side note, I'm thinking it may be time to do away with the RD portion of this chase. All three of the losses are from this section. I still can't understand how the team with the best record in baseball (even without Manny) could be a dog against the Rockies for 3 straight games either.
 

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Jowen Chase

Potential system post allstar break-chasers only

Ive spent a good amount of time on this and i love it so far...but other eyes are always great to see any chinks in the armour. any feedback is more than welcome.

Parameters:

-top 5 home % record teams in baseball.

-Chase all 3 & 4-game home series from the very beginning of each set.

-home team must be -120 favorite on 1st 2 games. will have to wait until overnight lines are posted to verify.

-$ management is a must here. dont wanna stretch too thin if several chases go at the same time. However in 2008 only 1 series went past the 2nd game which is good bc some of these will be heavy chalk.


2008 results:
without -120 filter 48-2 record. WITH -120 filter 29-0 record!
Teams were: tb, bos, chiw,min,chic

when choosing the teams i will use some discretion if necesarry. if minnesota is in the top 5 but joe mauer gets injured for the season then i may skip down to the next team.etc...

Also if i loss 1 chase early enough i will raise my units to recover the loss the rest of the season. i have estimated that worst case scenario i break even, best case i go undefeated.


Backtracked 6 yrs:

2008 48-2 29-0
still working on counting the winners for most prior yrs, but losses:
2007 55-3 1 loss
2006 54-2 0 loss
2005 53-5 2 losses
2004 52-3 1 loss
2003 46-2 26-0
 

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Azmat's Chase

MLB Dog System +46.4 units ytd


2005: 362-388, +43.4 units
2006: 204-197, +46.4 units
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

play on dog 100 to 150
no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league (if the pitcher has an era that is in the top 20 of his league, then no play)
 

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9dropmb's home team chase

Just staying on the home chase in Baseball

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Went 593-20............. last year. The 20 loses were the last home game series of regular season. If you need to know who they were, i will post them.......

AL East went 93 - 3
AL West went 80 - 3
AL Central went 105 - 3

NL East went 99-6
NL West went 99-3
Nl Central went 117-2


Play offs not involved.......



All I am doing is looking for a home team to win one game of a home series. Once they win, I wait until a fresh series starts with a different team. Example....

NYY 1st Home Series.

1st game lost... -1.00

2nd game lost... -2.00

3rd game lost -4.00 They lost the home series. So you are minus 7.00.

NYY 2nd home series

1st game won. So you would of played 8.00 from the 1st series that owes you and 1.00 for the new series.....The money is just regular as a sample, I am not putting in the real money line. So that means you won the 1st and the 2nd series......

I hope this brings in understanding.......GL....



One last note........Play smart and not over your limit......Make sure your bankroll can withhold a losing streak......Hey, even if your a 2.00 better....by the end of the season it will show....
 

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ok found it! My old notes regarding the systems I had accumulated from various posters in various people across multiple forums that turned multiple year profits.

here is a summation of each:

9dropmb- (play every home team to win 1 game in every home series)

357vegas- (Play the game with the largest ERA differential and the better era playing at home. At least 2.00 point difference and with a era of less than 4.00.
using jimfeist.com)

BDNews Chase- (A.-Play any road favorite in their next four games after losing their previous two as a road favorite. B- Play against any road dog in their four games after winning the previous two as a road dog.)

SSI Totals Chase- (Wait for any team to play 5 overs or unders in a row, then begin a 6 game chase going against the trend)

JKAUL Dog Series Chase- (Play team in series where team in series will always be a dog-i think that's how i interpret it)

ECARC Old Dog System -(Take a dog when the pitchers era is better than the favorites. Filter games where one pitch does not have 40IP and do not bet games below +110 or above equal to or above -200.)

AZMAT MLB Dog System - (play on dog 100 to 150 no play if dog has lost 3 in a row
no play if favorite has won 3 in a row
no play if dog going against top 20 era pitcher in that league)

AZMAT Chase #2 - (using filter, chase -1.5 runline for away team in every series using 1-2-4 format:

game 1 - wager 1 unit
if loss, game 2 - wager 2 units
if loss, game 3 - wager 4 units

filter is as follows: chase only away teams ranked in top 20 for away records and drop bottom 10 teams )

BIGDADI The Logical Approach.com/teamrankings.com- (USE
RUN FOR - RUN AGAINST = X COMPARE
ROAD TEAM's X with HOME TEAMS's X
IF one side is +1.5 better, it is a play)

XANBOO SYSTEM- (system xanboo I & II- I-home favorite of more than -110 and has lost its last three games as a home favorite of -110 or greater II-and stats after producing a win shows the teams wins the next game also being favorite at home)

SUREBET's 60/60 CHASE ( play on home teams to win 1 game in home series where they have atleast 60% win percentage and FADE road teams that have a road losing % of atleast 60% to lose 1 game in road series)

KCFAN +1.5 CHASE- (MLB System



1. We bet on series where the team was swept in the previous three or four game series by the same team. "Swept" means that the team didn't win any games against the opponent during the series. So basically we are betting that the team won't get swept again.

Example: The Boston Red Sox lost all three games in a three game series against the New York Yankees. So we will bet the Red Sox in the next series they play against the New York Yankees.



2. So during the season, please note all the three or four series sweeps and look ahead in the schedule and note the next time the two same teams play. Recommended site for schedule is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/standings/.



3. We will buy one and a half runs when our team in the underdog and we will bet the money line when our team is the favorite.



4. Our goal is to win one out of the three games in each series. After the win we will go on to the next series. We will be using a three game progressive betting scheme. We will bet game one for $xxx profit. If we lose game one, we double up on game two to win our game one losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game two, we double up on game three to win our game one and two losses back and an additional $xxx profit. If we lose game three then it is considered a lost.



5. We never bet on a team when their best hitter or pitcher is injured. We never bet in September, because teams that are out of the playoff chase do not give 100% effort. Recommended site for injury reports is www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/offshore/.



6. Even though the probability of winning is very high that does not mean losing is impossible. Losses are very rare, but still possible. Please have patience and restrain when using the system.)

ZAC's OLD DOG SYSTEM- (1- Dog pitcher must have lower ERA.

2 - Do not bet games when dog’s line is below +110 or favorite’s is equal to or above -200.

3 - Both pitchers must have 40IP.

4 - The favorite pitcher's ERA must not be less than 4.00.

5 - The dog pitcher’s ERA should not be less than 3.00 but I played it at less than 3.00 last year without any problem.

I found playing Dog pitchers in the 3.00 to 3.99 range to be the most profitable and there were stats posted that supported that.)

htdykid Chase- (First Game Fave Loser RL Chase)


Simple Home Chase Developed by Hookem22 - goes like this:

The idea is to chase a team doing well at home to win one game on a homestand, when they are playing a team playing poorly at the time

1. Home Team is .500 or above at home and at least 5-5 their last 10 games.
2. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
3. Home team loses the first game or the series - this removes the possibility of having to chase 3 games.
4. Play until home team wins one game.
5. All plays are ML.

This year I will not play 4 game sets.

Generally speaking you get 3-4 sets to chase per series.

This was very profitable last year, especially before the all-star break.


here is one for MLB pre-season
AZMAT9 - MLB Exhibition Strategy MLB Exhibition Strategy
first 2 weeks, take away team
last 2 weeks, take home team
-------------------------------------------
last year, this would have yielded +44 units in 4 weeks. theory is as follows -- home team in exhibition play is favorite 85-90% of time. so essentially bet dogs first 2 wks cause vegas doesnt have good read on teams yet. final 2 wks, vegas adjusts and teams play their everyday players more. also a team that should be -250 in regular season play may only be -150 cause of preseason. favs win more during final days of exhibition play. if anybody has data from preseason games prior to 2005 and can confirm this theory, that would be great. i took colorado for a win yesterday at +131 and took all dogs today.
 

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this is very good, very nice to put this up for people !
i have a system but i have not set down and tried to explan it very well yet.
it works with last 7 home / away OPS along with some record last 10 game filters. i will try to get it written up, maybe it will be worth posting.

good luck this season !
 

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Wow, great stuff 1968 !!!! When I said lets put our heads together you out did yourself.
You have many systems here and I just scanned them briefly but I have a couple of weeks to break them down and back test them but it looks like you back tested them already for the most part.
I like your original one the best:
parameters:
1) must be -140 or higher in first game of home series
2) must be home team
3) must have won 2 of last 3


The home chase method alone with no parameters I can see get pricey becuase you will be chasing chalk all the time.

What systems do you like the best or are you going to be using this year?

Platinum Sports did you work with or for him? I noticed he has a phone number from the town right next to mine, are you close as well?

Thanks for everything 1968

Vegas83
 

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IS there a way to do an excel spread sheet with the parameters then pull from covers.com or another website that keeps all the game logs and have the plays pick out on a daily basis or do you just have to check them everyday manually?
Just an idea to save some time on a daily basis
 

WHB

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WHB have you used Platinium Sports Investing? Just curiuos how they are. Seems like they may use a similiar system.
Yes, I did use them for a while. Tom definitely knows his stuff. He is better at building systems than running the organizational side of emailing/texting picks though. Had a hard time getting them consistently and really didn't learn anything from him like I though I would. He pretty much just tells you what to bet on without explaining the systems at all. I signed up with him thinking I would learn more about becoming a successful sports bettor but I think he has gotten away from that as he realized that people would just post his systems on forums and he would lose customers. John Morrison has marketed alot of his stuff and so you can probably understand why he's being more careful.
 

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So did you make money when you used him?
Why did you stop?

Thanks,
Vegas83
 

WHB

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So did you make money when you used him?
Why did you stop?

Thanks,
Vegas83
I want to be careful about not clogging up this thread but since we are pretty much just brainstorming... I only stayed with Platinum for 1 month. It was slightly profitable. I was looking for someone to teach me how to fish not just give me a fish everyday if you know what I mean. The way the website readsand from what I had heard from others on forums it sounds like you will get some info emailed to you about money management, discipline, systems etc. I expected some kind of welcome email with some basic info about how to manage my money with the picks he sent. Never got that. Didn't get any emails for about 2 weeks and had to contact him by text everyday for the picks when they didn't show up. Just seems like he needs an administrative assistant.
 

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So 1968 which of those systems are you going to use this season?
Are you going to post plays here?
 

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Whats the system called where you look for the biggest ML favorites everyday and actually play their runline...? You chase it to 6.

I believe its been perfect the last two seasons and something ridiculous like 6 losses in the last ten years, if playing may 1st-sept 1st.
 

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