4th ARENA POST --- WK 8

TOMMYB · Mar 16, 2005

4<SUP>TH</SUP> ARENA POST --- WK8

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

> </o

>

LAST WEEK 4 – 2 , SEASON TO DATE 11 – 3.

SJ -10 W

GEO +6 W

TB -8 L

NO -3 L

DAL -7 W

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1

lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">LV</st1:City></st1

lace> UN 97.5 W ADDED LATER IN THE WEEK AFTER LINE MOVEMENT , GOT LUCKY AND COVERED BY THE HOOK.

<o

> </o

>

WEEK 8 PLAYS --- BETS ARE 2 % OF BANKROLL.

DAL UN 105

DAL PK

GEO +1.5

AUST +6.5

<st1:City w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">LV</st1

lace></st1:City> -1

TB -9

NO -4

<o

> </o

>

I’M USING A POWER RATING SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT ACE-ACE WAS USING IN HIS NFL PLAYS. IT PRODUCED WINNERS THE LAST 3 WEEKS SO HOPEFULLY IT WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE BEFORE IT NEEDS SOME ADJUSTING AS THE SEASON CONTINUES . ANYTHING I POST IS WHAT I HAVE ALREADY BET , YOUR CHOICE IS BET ALSO , FADE ME OR DO NOTHING .

<o

> </o

>

I ADVISE TO TREAD LIGHTLY WITH SO MANY BETS AS I’M WINNING AT AN ABNORMALLY HIGH RATE AND AFTER 4 WINNING WEEKS IN A ROW I’M DUE FOR A DOWNER . GOOD LUCK TO ALL.

TOMMYB · Mar 16, 2005

Hers A Break Down On The Average Scoring Of The Games On A Week To Week Basis . There's Only 1 Game This Week With A Total Of Less Than 100.

Wk 1 = 95
Wk 2 = 99.38
Wk 3 = 100.13
Wk 4 = 106
Wk 5 = 101
Wk 6 = 95.63
Wk 7 = 94.75

There Was A Steady Rise From Week 1 To Week 4 Where It Peaked And Now Is On The Way Down To Just Under Week Ones Number Of 95. If The Line Maker Is Slow To Adjust There Should Be More Under Games This Week Than Overs. My Numbers Show 5 Unders This Week . Lets See What Happens.

yubnolck · Mar 20, 2005

Nice record keep up the good picks! :103631605

AFLGuru · Mar 20, 2005

TOMMY B said:
Hers A Break Down On The Average Scoring Of The Games On A Week To Week Basis . There's Only 1 Game This Week With A Total Of Less Than 100.

Wk 1 = 95
Wk 2 = 99.38
Wk 3 = 100.13
Wk 4 = 106
Wk 5 = 101
Wk 6 = 95.63
Wk 7 = 94.75

There Was A Steady Rise From Week 1 To Week 4 Where It Peaked And Now Is On The Way Down To Just Under Week Ones Number Of 95. If The Line Maker Is Slow To Adjust There Should Be More Under Games This Week Than Overs. My Numbers Show 5 Unders This Week . Lets See What Happens.

Curious to know how you came up with 94.75 this when only one game opened up at less than that number (and that was 94.5). I can understand when Orlando plays Georgia, you expect that game to be low scoring, and same with LA/Dal and LV/Arz. You had to have had Philly/Tampa with a ton of points. Colorado/Columbus maybe? I guess if you're using a "last 3" system, Colorado hasn't scored a ton of points. I don't know about it though. An average of 106 seems to be high as well. Have you tweaked the system since or are you sticking to your guns?

Remember, these are the same 16 teams every week (ok, 1 exception every week), so the scoring averages should stay between 99-101 ppg on average (check the stats on that... haven't added it all up myself, it's just a rough guess). Any time I can get a GS under 775, I'll take over... Any time I get a GS over 850, I'll take under. Games revert to a mean in the AFL. ANY game... and I mean ANY game can have 120-130 scored in it... Look at Orlando/New Orleans last week. That game featured two offenses that looked inept the entire game, yet there were over 110 points scored. Dallas/LA this week... same thing. Two offenses look pretty poor, and the game reaches 120. Think about it... Nashville is the team off this week, one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, and look at what's happened. 5 overs, no unders. Kinda scares me for my over in the Tampa game... I know your system almost has to have an element of "last 3" or "last 4" or something like that in it. It's not a bad strategy. But always keep in mind if you spit out a number less than 97 or so or greater than 104 or so, that it's time to check some stuff. RARELY will you see the total of an AFL week stay under 750 or over 850. Every now and then you'll see that 145 point game that will take your averages way up and that 30-7 Orlando Predators game that takes that average way down, but for the most part, there's the range you should probably fall into.

Sorry this took so long to reply to... I must've skipped over this thread a few days back when you last posted.

--AFLGuru:toast:

TOMMYB · Mar 20, 2005

HI GURU:

and here i thought you were ignoring me , i checked over my weekly scoring in the games and my averages are correct , you are right as no gs total was below 758 or above 848 . seems i don't quite have a handle on these totals yet and the line maker is doing a better job on the totals than the lines on the games , at least where i'm concerned .

when i saw that the scoring was down for last week (94.75) i remembered the opening week had more unders than overs , probably the offenses werent in sync yet , and i figured it to be an under week. my mistake , guess thats why i only bet an occasional total as i'm not so sure of that part of the arena game yet . but i will keep working on it and i will eventually get it down to a profitable betting scheme .

i see you are having another good week , keep it up , and thanks for making me back check my work. i do that every week on the side bets with that experimental power rating but am a little lax on totals .