3 tonight with analysis

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CHICAGO –5 over Washington
Give us the Bulls minus the points at home against a team that hasn’t won on the road in a month covering five games and you can pencil us in. We know that when wagering on this edition of the Bulls we’re going to get a sound effort for 48 minutes and besides that, they’re 17-10 in their own crib after starting the year 1-5. So, make that 16-5 at since they found their identity and that includes winning consistently over some of the best teams in the business. The number seems small here due to the anticipated return of Larry Hughes. However, the Washington papers are saying that he won’t return until Sunday, however, that’s not 100% for sure. We’re wagering on this game not based on whether or not Hughes plays but because the Bulls have been the East’s best team over the past couple of months and are always worthy of laying small points against a team with a defense that is practically non-existent. Bulls have won 25 of their past 37 games and Ben Gordon is going to become the first rookie in history to win the sixth man award. Bulls just keep getting better. Play: Chicago –5 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Cleveland +1.40 over INDIANA<o:p></o:p>

The Pacers are playing much better of late with four wins in a row and we’d be absolutely shocked not to see this host make the playoffs. However, we certainly get some value on this invader that definitely can win this game. Adding Jiri Welsh, if nothing else, will give the Cav’s another much needed option and force the defense to stretch out a bit more. It was a good pick-up for Cleveland at a rather cheap price. Welsh can also play defense and giving LeBron more help can only lift this team to better things. The more options Cleveland has the better it’ll be for LeBron. The Pacers past six wins have been very ordinary and they’ll have to perform at their best to dispose of this guest. They’ve beaten Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis (minus half the team), Portland (minus the whole team), Orlando and Miami (minus Shaq) over that stretch and this will be their toughest opponent in nearly a month. The last time they played a “live” team at home came on Feb 11 when the Rockets paid a visit and Indiana dropped that one by eight. We expect something very similar to that one here. Play: Cleveland +1.40 (risking 1.5 units).




UTAH –2½ over Boston<o:p></o:p>

The Celtics are not in good form right now and the recent trades that saw them ship out Jiri Welsh and Gary Payton and add Antoine Walker makes this horrible defensive team even worse. The Celtics did not get better, in fact, they got much worse and it appears as though Danny Ainge hit the panic button with all the wrong moves. At least Gary Payton gave them some stablilty at point guard and he was still an effective defender. Now the Celtics will have to rely on Marcus Banks, rookie Tony Allen and rookie Delonte West to handle the ball and that works fine for us. Antoine Walker is one of the worst defensive players in the league. This is the perfect spot for the Jazz to get right-sided, as they’re healthy and need a win in a big way. Utah has dropped five of six, however, its past four losses came at the hands of Denver, Phoenix, the Lakers and Dallas and now they catch a big break in the schedule having to face this poor Celtic squad. The Jazz have absolutely no excuses here and we expect a big performance from them from start to finish. It says here this one gets ugly. Play: Utah –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
 

NBA and Miami Heat Guru
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Sherwood,

Is Utah your biggest bet this year? Also, is Antoine playing tonight for the Celts? Also, isnt Boozer still out for Utah? Line is down to -2 at -103 at Pinny. Thanks and best of luck.

SB
 

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Boozer is suppose to be out still. Boston is hoping Walker will be there tonight, but not offical from what I can find (wouldn't see why not)........hope that helps some. GL
 

International Playa
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sherwood, i have read your write ups a couple of times and they have all been well written, very enjoyable reads......


that being said, i played 3 nba games tonight, all the opposite of yours.......one of us loses :sad3:

good luck...
 

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Sherwood...


Nice work as usual...

Couple of comments:

Bulls may be fine tonight, but I don't think the line is strangely low as if Hughes is playing. With Hughes in, the line would be 2.5 IMO. Bulls not nearly as comfortable in role of fav v. comparable teams...note games recently v. NYN, DEN and BOS - when opps. were at least perceived as comparable at the time. Also, Bulls propensity to turn the ball over a bigger problem v. ball-hawking Wizards. I don't have an opinion myself, but wish you luck.

Pacers did lose to Rockets, but that was a team featuring sound defense, not just offense. Also, Tinsley didn't play. Pacers strongest lately in first halves...I may consider Cavs for second half depending on what's going on.

Similarly, the Jazz are mostly reliable for a good first half effort, while the Celtics are a better second half team...I may follow you in the form of a first half bet.

Thanks again for your analysis and best of luck!

Dolphin
 

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From the Utah newsapaper:

Carlos Boozer, still hobbled by a sprained right foot, did not practice with the Jazz on Thursday, and is doubtful tonight.

Antoine Walker is playing for the C's

Sherman: Sorry we both can't win tonight but thanks for replying.

Spreadbeater: 2.2 units is not my biggest bet of the year but one of them. However, that does not mean much except that I really trust the Jazz tonight. Still, please realize that my NBA the past month has been horrible.
 

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