3 NL CY YOUNG futures to consider....odds on other players as well

[MAGAking1]

Aaron Nola, Phillies (+1300)​

Aaron Nola finished fourth in last year's NL Cy Young voting, and I like taking a stab at him to win it this year at this +1300 number, which prices him as the seventh favorite.

The 2022 campaign was an excellent one for Nola. The Philadelphia Phillies' right-hander posted career-best marks in SIERA (2.80), fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%). His 29.1% strikeout rate and 32.4% called-plus-swinging-strike percentage (CSW%) were close to career-high clips, as well.

It feels like Nola has been around forever, and he does have a tick more than seven years of service time. But he's also heading into just his age-30 season, so there's a chance he could take even another step forward in 2023.

Despite the top-shelf peripherals last season, Nola finished with a blah 11-13 record, although the fact he still got fourth in the Cy Young voting despite the middling win-loss record tells you how much better the voting process has gotten.

However, narratives can still matter in these award races, and Nola will be pitching in an NL East Division that should be in the headlines all year thanks to the stout trio of the Phillies, New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. If Nola puts up elite numbers once more and does so for a Philly squad that's in an NL East title chase, it could aid his Cy Young chances.

Projections are certainly on board with Nola this season. ZiPS forecasts him to be second in WAR (4.6) among all NL pitchers and third in FIP (3.03) among NL starters. Steamer has him third in WAR (4.1) and sixth in FIP (3.34).

I think Nola's price as the seventh-best favorite is selling him just a bit short.

Julio Urias, Dodgers (+2000)​

Speaking of guys who have been around a while but aren't that old, Julio Urias fits the bill.

Urias has slightly more than five years of service time under his belt, and he's entering only his age-27 season.

A former mega prospect, Urias has been a quality pitcher for the past two years, recording SIERAs of 3.64 and 3.66. The training wheels are mostly off as he's thrown at least 175 innings in each of those two seasons, and while his overall numbers fall in the very-good-but-not-elite range, there's every chance that Urias can make a leap in 2023 as he enters his prime.

With Walker Buehler injured, Clayton Kershaw getting old and all of Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, and Trevor Bauer gone, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be relying heavily on the left arm of Urias in 2023. Kershaw may get the Opening Day nod and has earned the right to be called the Dodgers' ace, but Urias will likely be LA's true number one. Being the top dog for one of the game's best teams is always good for award voting.

ZiPS has Urias pegged to amass the eighth-most WAR (4.0) among NL pitchers and 13th-best FIP (3.44) among NL starters. The +2000 price is worth a roll of the dice.

Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (+2000)​

Brandon Woodruff isn't even the best pitcher on the Milwaukee Brewers -- that title belongs to Corbin Burnes, who is tied with Sandy Alcantara as the preseason favorite for this award at a price of +500. But I like the value on Woodruff at this +2000 number.

Woodruff is really good. He missed a little time last year due to injury, tossing only 153 1/3 innings, but it was arguably his best season. He set career-best clips in SIERA (3.03), swinging-strike rate (14.1%) and CSW% (31.0).

In 2023, he'll benefit from an NL Central that has three bad offenses in it. The Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds all project to be in the bottom seven in runs per game among all teams, per FanGraphs.

And if you want to take a stroll down narrative street, this is Woodruff's contract year, and another elite season from him will likely result in a massive payday this winter.

Projection models are expecting Woodruff to be one of the NL's best arms in 2023. ZiPS has him third in WAR (4.0) among NL pitchers and second in FIP (2.97) among NL starters. Steamer isn't quite as bullish, slotting Woodruff eighth in FIP among starters and ninth in WAR.

All in all, he's got a better shot to win the NL Cy Young than this +2000 price implies.

 

[MAGAking1]

• Sandy Alcantara
  +500
  Corbin Burnes
  +500
  Justin Verlander
  +700
• Max Scherzer
  +800
  Spencer Strider
  +1000
  Max Fried
  +1200
• Aaron Nola
  +1300
  Zack Wheeler
  +1600
  Zac Gallen
  +1600
• Brandon Woodruff
  +2000
  Julio Urías
  +2000
  Yu Darvish
  +2400
• Logan Webb
  +3000
  Joe Musgrove
  +3500
  Blake Snell
  +3500
• Nick Lodolo
  +4000
  Clayton Kershaw
  +5000
  Hunter Greene
  +5000
• Kodai Senga
  +6000
  Dustin May
  +6000
  Kyle Wright
  +6000
• Tony Gonsolin
  +6000
  Merrill Kelly
  +10000
  Jesús Luzardo
  +10000
• Jack Flaherty
  +10000
  Marcus Stroman
  +15000
  Charlie Morton
  +15000
• Jordan Montgomery
  +15000
  Edwin Díaz
  +15000
  Taijuan Walker
  +15000
• Ranger Suárez
  +15000
  Alex Cobb
  +15000
  Drey Jameson
  +15000
• Ross Stripling
  +20000
  José Quintana
  +20000
  Carlos Carrasco
  +20000
• Steven Matz
  +20000
  Kyle Freeland
  +20000
  Freddy Peralta
  +20000
• Miles Mikolas
  +20000
  Trevor Rogers
  +20000
  Germán Márquez
  +20000
• Jameson Taillon
  +20000
  Patrick Corbin
  +20000
  Sean Manaea
  +20000
• Graham Ashcraft
  +20000
  Roansy Contreras
  +20000
  Aaron Ashby
  +20000
• JT Brubaker
  +20000
  Alex Wood
  +20000
  Mitch Keller
  +20000
• Justin Steele
  +20000
  

 

[CHOPTALK]

Spencer Strider .

Trust me on that one . He will make you happy if you bet on him.
Alcantara is also legit

 

[MAGAking1]

Spencer Strider .

Trust me on that one . He will make you happy if you bet on him.
Alcantara is also legit

 

[MAGAking1]

3 bets for NL MVP to consider

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+1400)​

Freddie Freeman is one of the game's best hitters and has been for a while. I see no reason why that'll change in 2023.

Freeman has put up a wOBA of at least .378 in six straight campaigns, including a .393 wOBA last year, his first with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

He checked a lot of boxes in the traditional stats last season, posting a .325 average with 117 runs and 100 RBI. That helped him to a fourth-place finish in the MVP voting. The big thing he was missing was home runs, as he hit just 21 dongs, his lowest homer output in a full season since 2016.

But he was a victim of some bad luck. Despite the meh homer total, Freeman's batted-ball profile was as good as ever. He finished 2022 with a 48.0% hard-hit rate, per Statcast, the second-best clip of his career. He was doomed by a 12.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate (HR/FB%). His HR/FB% is 16.6% for his career and had been above 19.0% for three straight years prior to last season. And we can't blame it on the park, as Dodger Stadium actually rated out as a better park for lefties than Truist Park, Freeman's old home.

Freeman could have some narratives working for him, too. While the Dodgers are still one of the game's best teams, this feels like the first time in a while that LA might be coming back to the pack a bit after an offseason in which they saw a lot of talent walk out the door. If LA still manages to have a top-shelf record and win the NL West -- something they are -130 favorites to do -- Freeman could receive a lot of credit for it, assuming he produces his usual numbers.

ZiPS projects Freeman to crack the top three in the NL in all of wRC+ (147), runs (105) and RBI (107). Steamer has him third in wRC+ (148) and first in batting average (.300).

He should be in the mix for the NL MVP once again, and I'm digging him at this +1400 price, which places him as the eighth-favorite.

Matt Olson, Braves (+2400)​

You can also make a decent case for Matt Olson, the guy who replaced Freeman on the Atlanta Braves.

Olson ended up having a nice season in his first year in the NL, finishing with a .344 wOBA and 34 homers. He scored 86 runs with 103 RBIs, and the counting stats should continue to be there because Olson is surrounded by a pretty loaded lineup in Atlanta.

Projections systems are expecting him to take a step forward in 2023. Given that the shift is now outlawed and that Olson is right in the prime of his career (age-29 season), it's not crazy to think that he could make a sizable jump.

ZiPS sees Olson generating a 137 wRC+, 36 bombs and a .369 wOBA -- all of which rank in the top 10 among NL bats. ZiPS also has Olson at a .259 average, which is notable since Olson hit just .240 a year ago. Steamer is mostly right in line with those numbers, pegging Olson to generate a .260 average and 34 taters.

In the narrative department, Olson could garner some momentum if he's able to help the Braves win the NL East in what should be one of the highest-profile division races in 2023.

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+3500)​

A year ago, Kyle Schwarber launched an NL-best 46 jacks and still didn't get into the top 15 in NL MVP voting. So, what would Schwarber have to do to win the award? My guess is he'd need to hit for a better average, still crush lots of homers and do it all for a team that wins a ton of games.

I think he can do all those things in 2023.

Schwarber could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the ban on shifts. He was shifted against more than any hitter in the NL last season, with defenses deploying the shift on Schwarber a staggering 90.5% of the time when he came up with the bases empty. Of course, the shift won't fix everything for a guy who had a 29.9% strikeout rate in 2022, but it should help him rack up a better average than the ugly .218 clip he had a year ago.

Steamer has Schwarber projected for a .234 average while ZiPS has him at .235. That's a canyon away from prime Tony Gwynn, but it doesn't have quite the stench of .218, a number that's probably a big reason why Schwarber was tied with a closer in the MVP voting despite leading the NL in homers.

And what if the shift helps him even more than what projection models are thinking and/or he gets some batted-ball luck en route to, say, a .250 average? That would be a boon for his MVP chances, and he hit .250 in 2019, so it's within his realistic range of outcomes.

Schwarber should be a top power hitter once again, with Steamer projecting him to pace the NL in jacks (39). He's obviously a long shot to win the MVP, which is why he's +3500, but I don't mind sprinkling some cash on him at this price.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I bet strider +1100 for cy young . He’s gonna lead the league in strikeouts . That goes a long way for the cy . And he plays on a top 3 team

Also bet alcantara most wins +2000

Simply because he’s awesome , and the fact he’s basically the only pitcher in baseball capable of throwing complete games these days .

Kinda hard to lead the league in wins if you leave the game in the 5th inning
That’s why you want a guy who goes 7+ on the regular

 

[MAGAking1]

3 bets for AL MVP.....I like the bet on Buxom IF you think he can stay healhy.

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200)​

Yordan Alvarez was silly-good last year, and I'm loving him at this +1200 price, which ranks him as the fifth-most likely to win the award.

Alvarez's 2022 numbers were spectacular. He finished with a .427 wOBA that ranked second in baseball behind Aaron Judge (.458 wOBA). Going by his expected wOBA (xwOBA), Yordan's wOBA should've been even higher as his xwOBA was .462 (Judge's was .463). He amassed a 44.2% hard-hit rate -- another mark that trailed only Judge -- and finished with 37 taters along with a triple-slash of .306/.406/.613.

Did I mention Alvarez is going into just his age-26 season?

Yordan's 2022 output would've been good enough to win the MVP in some years. Unfortunately for him, he was in the same league as a guy who hit 62 jacks and another dude who is super good at every aspect of baseball (Shohei Ohtani).

Those two are priced as the favorites to win the 2023 MVP, with Ohtani at +220 and Judge at +700. They're going to be a big hurdle once more -- especially Ohtani, who is going to be very tough to beat for the MVP in any year in which he stays healthy.

Yordan can do it, though. ZiPS projects him to bash 40 homers with a .415 wOBA and 177 wRC+. The wOBA and wRC+ are tops among AL bats.

His current hand ailment is certainly a concern, although it sounds like he still has a good shot to be ready for Opening Day.

Alvarez can have the best-player-on-best-team narrative working for him as he'll be putting up these big numbers on what should be one of MLB's elite teams. Judge could have a really, really good year and still be a decent ways off his 2022 production, which could cause some voters to look elsewhere, and it's possible Ohtani is moved at this year's trade deadline. A trade to the National League would take him out of the AL MVP race.

Byron Buxton, Twins (+4000)​

There's a reason a player as talented as Byron Buxton is a +4000 longshot to win the AL MVP -- he can't stay healthy.

Buxton hasn't had more than 382 plate appearances in a season since 2017. But if -- and it's a colossal if -- he can stay healthy, Buxton is capable of putting up MVP numbers.

In 382 plate appearances a year ago, Buxton mashed 28 dongs. He hit 19 homers in 254 plate appearances in 2021. So, over his last 636 plate appearances -- which would be in the ballpark of a full year if his health cooperates -- Buxton has totaled 47 dingers with a .381 wOBA, 42.2% hard-hit rate and 45.6% fly-ball rate.

Buxton unquestionably has an MVP-type ceiling if it all comes together for him, and we can't say that about many guys who are priced in this range.

ZiPS pegs him for 22 home runs and a .370 wOBA over 350 plate appearances. The projection of 350 plate appearances is more than fair. But if Buxton can find a way to stay on the field and amass closer to 600 plate appearances, he can challenge for the MVP.

Bo Bichette, Blue Jays (+7000)​

I'm willing to give Bo Bichette a pass on his underwhelming 2022 season, and this +7000 price is very enticing for a player who should be a key cog on a Toronto Blue Jays team that could make a lot of noise this year.

Bichette was pretty meh last year, posting a .347 wOBA, a career-worst mark, along with a 30.9% fly-ball rate. But we've seen Bichette light up the bigs -- especially during a 29-homer, 25-steal effort in 2021 -- and he's fully capable of rebounding in a big way in 2023.

ZiPS forecasts Bichette for a .280/.327/.469 triple-slash line and 26 homers to go with 16 steals. He's been a beacon of health the last two seasons, playing 159 games in each, and Bichette might be able to surpass said ZiPS projections if he makes a leap -- something that isn't out of the question for a player entering his age-26 season.

He -- as well as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1300) -- could also be a narrative darling if the Jays are able to knock off the New York Yankees in the AL East. Toronto is priced at +200 to win the division, not a huge underdog to the Yankees (+130). And Bichette could also get credit for playing shortstop, a more important defensive position than what some other MVP candidates play.

All in all, I think Bichette is worth a sprinkle at +7000, and I like dropping some coin on Vladdy, too. If the Jays win the AL East, one of these two could be a fixture in the MVP race.

 

[MAGAking1]

3 AL CYyoung bets

Shane McClanahan, Rays (+1600)​

Shane McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, and there's every reason to expect him to have a similar campaign in 2023.

Last year, McClanahan led all starters in xFIP (2.60), and he was top four in the American League in strikeout rate (30.3%), strikeout-minus-walk rate (24.3%) and SIERA (2.82) en route to a 12-8 record and 2.54 ERA. All of that led to a sixth-place finish in the 2022 AL Cy Young voting.

Even if McClanahan just repeats those numbers, he's going to be in the Cy Young mix and is easy to like at this +1600 price, which places him as the 10th favorite. But it's certainly possible that McClanahan, who is entering his age-26 season, improves on his 2022 output. He's already shown the ability to take a step forward, lowering his SIERA by nearly a run from 2021 to 2022 (3.62 to 2.82).

ZiPS and Steamer are mostly aligned when it comes to McClanahan's rate stats for 2023. Steamer has him at a 28.8% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate along with a 2.97 FIP and 4.0 WAR. Among AL starters, that FIP ranks second (behind only Jacob deGrom) while the WAR is fourth.

In short, McClanahan's numbers should be there, and he will likely get the chance to pitch in big games down the stretch for a Tampa Bay Rays team that's priced at -190 to make the playoffs, which only helps his case in the narrative department.

Cristian Javier, Astros (+2100)​

Cristian Javier was excellent last year, and he could be a narrative darling this season as the Houston Astros look for an ace to replace the departed Justin Verlander.

Javier can fill that role.

He finished 2022 with a 3.14 SIERA, 38.2% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging-strike rate. He gave up a lot of fly balls and a few too many walks, which is scary, but Javier allowed just a 29.7% hard-hit rate and missed enough bats to more than compensate for his 56.9% fly-ball rate and 8.9% walk rate.

Like McClanahan, Javier is going into his age-26 season, so his 2022 numbers might not be his ceiling. Steamer has him projected for a 28.5% strikeout rate, although it also forecasts him for a good-not-great 3.90 xFIP, which checks in just 21st among AL starters, with the walks and high fly-ball rate dinging him.

But I think Javier is capable of taking another step forward in 2023, and we know the Astros will be really good again this year, with Houston priced as the favorite to win it all (+600), so he'll have chances to get wins and be in the headlines. If Javier takes the vacated mantle of Astros ace and runs with it, he could have a lot of Cy Young momentum by the end of the season.

You can say the same for Framber Valdez, who is starting on Opening Day and is +2000 to win the award. Valdez is a quality bet, too.

Chris Sale, Red Sox (+8000)​

Chris Sale is a total wild card. Dude has barely pitched since 2019. But if you're looking for a long shot to throw some coin on, Sale isn't a bad dart throw.

It's tough to know what we can reasonably expect from Sale in 2023. He missed all of 2020, logged 42 2/3 frames in 2021 and threw 5 2/3 innings last year. This will be his age-34 campaign, and the days of Sale being an elite hurler might very well be a thing of the past.

However, projection models are fairly bullish on him. Steamer sees Sale generating a 28.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 3.24 FIP and 2.9 WAR. The FIP ranks 7th among AL starters while the 2.9 WAR is 13th. ZiPS has him at a 29.1% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Maybe the best part about Steamer's projection is that it has Sale amassing 147 innings.

If Sale can stay healthy -- obviously a massive if -- his rate-stats projections are pretty nice. He could have narratives working in his favor, too, if -- after basically a three-year hiatus -- he is a key reason why the Boston Red Sox, who are +310 underdogs to make the playoffs, contend in the AL East.

All in all, I don't mind taking a shot on Sale at +8000.