hno: Where did i miss this...guess i'm not surprised.
Read this thread..you actually posted in it. Probably forgot since it was from Dec 2009. But for some reason 2Smooth wanted to bump it tonight with one of his other screen names.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=738682&page=2
2Smooth, this was the type of play I was talking about the other night. Too bad you basically dismissed my advice, and unfortunately played another unprofitable 2H side.
Here's your famous quote from the other day regarding 2H plays:
"bro, you have to watch the game to see the game and how it's going. i would have never took bulls +10.5 before game started, but after watching the first half, i was confident that theyd keep it close. i could care less what the game line was. i was never going to bet it"
This was the game where the Bulls were +10.5 before the game, and your 2H play essentially made them +8.5 for the game. Those 2 points were the difference between cashing and ripping up a ticket. I gave you some friendly advice, you shit all over it, and dismissed it. Whatever.
So, I guess you watched the game and saw the game. Thats a good start. And how was it going?? Why, a Phoenix blowout of course. And of course, since you watched the game and saw the game, you saw that Phoenix was up 29 points at the half. Thats 29........on the road.
So you take +7 points on Phoenix, and bet that the Suns will win by no less than.......22 points. On the road. In a playoff game.
This has got to be the stupidest Play Of The Year ever recorded. Think about this for a minute.
You take a team that is +1 before the game starts, and turn it into a -22 game at halftime. Sheer genius. Really, thats some deep shit.
Yes, they were up 29. Yes, they had to lose the 2H by only 7 to push.
But did you really think Portland was going to roll over and die in the 2H. At home?? In Game 3 of a playoff series?? They cut the lead at one point to what, 12?? News flash for you.
NBA games are a series of runs, more often than not. Look at tonights games. Chicago was up by 20 at one point, Cavs cut it to 9, up double digits again, until Cavs cut it to a bucket or two before losing. Same with Ok City, Lakers jump on them, OC fights back. Down 7 at half, they win by 5.
Now that would have been a good 2H play. OK City -4 2H. They were down 7, favored by 3.5 for the game. I played Ok City -3.5 for the game. Taking OC 2H you get them at +3 for the game. Now thats a 2H play. I played that too, just in case they didn't cover the original game bet. Fortunately both covered.
This was the kind of play I suggested you look for, but you gave me some bullshit line I quoted above. So you ignored the advice, played another loser, and didn't play a winner.
You did win a nice totals play. But that wasn't heralded as a Play of the Year. I would think the POTY had more on it than a regular play.
Here are the before game lines, with 2H lines, then the adjusted game lines accounting for the 2H spread and halftime score:
Game: Chicago +4.5
2H: Chicago +6.5
Adjusted Game Line: Chicago -4.5, Cleveland +4.5 (Chicago up 11)
Who would you take?? Not Chicago, you are getting less value from the opening line. Cleveland covered 2H.
Game: Ok City -3.5
2H: Ok City -4
Adjusted Game Line : OKC +3, LAL -3 (LAL up 7)
Who would you take: Not LAL, you are getting less value from opening line. Especially on the road. OKC covered 2H.
Game
hoenix +1
2H: Phoenix +7
Adjusted Game Line: Phoenix -22, Portland +22. (Phoenix up 29)
Who would you take?? Pretty obvious. Portland. They covered 2H.
All 3 2H lines were covered by the team getting value against the opening line. This is the point I was trying to make. Lines are calibrated for a full 48 minutes, not 24 minutes. More often than not, teams will level out and come closer to the original lines. Linemakers aren't dumb.
Not every game has a play. Not every play will win. But when you can find situations like these, they can be an excellent wager. For those of you interested, do these adjustments and look for situations like the ones above.
Here's your famous quote from the other day regarding 2H plays:
"bro, you have to watch the game to see the game and how it's going. i would have never took bulls +10.5 before game started, but after watching the first half, i was confident that theyd keep it close. i could care less what the game line was. i was never going to bet it"
This was the game where the Bulls were +10.5 before the game, and your 2H play essentially made them +8.5 for the game. Those 2 points were the difference between cashing and ripping up a ticket. I gave you some friendly advice, you shit all over it, and dismissed it. Whatever.
So, I guess you watched the game and saw the game. Thats a good start. And how was it going?? Why, a Phoenix blowout of course. And of course, since you watched the game and saw the game, you saw that Phoenix was up 29 points at the half. Thats 29........on the road.
So you take +7 points on Phoenix, and bet that the Suns will win by no less than.......22 points. On the road. In a playoff game.
This has got to be the stupidest Play Of The Year ever recorded. Think about this for a minute.
You take a team that is +1 before the game starts, and turn it into a -22 game at halftime. Sheer genius. Really, thats some deep shit.
Yes, they were up 29. Yes, they had to lose the 2H by only 7 to push.
But did you really think Portland was going to roll over and die in the 2H. At home?? In Game 3 of a playoff series?? They cut the lead at one point to what, 12?? News flash for you.
NBA games are a series of runs, more often than not. Look at tonights games. Chicago was up by 20 at one point, Cavs cut it to 9, up double digits again, until Cavs cut it to a bucket or two before losing. Same with Ok City, Lakers jump on them, OC fights back. Down 7 at half, they win by 5.
Now that would have been a good 2H play. OK City -4 2H. They were down 7, favored by 3.5 for the game. I played Ok City -3.5 for the game. Taking OC 2H you get them at +3 for the game. Now thats a 2H play. I played that too, just in case they didn't cover the original game bet. Fortunately both covered.
This was the kind of play I suggested you look for, but you gave me some bullshit line I quoted above. So you ignored the advice, played another loser, and didn't play a winner.
You did win a nice totals play. But that wasn't heralded as a Play of the Year. I would think the POTY had more on it than a regular play.
Here are the before game lines, with 2H lines, then the adjusted game lines accounting for the 2H spread and halftime score:
Game: Chicago +4.5
2H: Chicago +6.5
Adjusted Game Line: Chicago -4.5, Cleveland +4.5 (Chicago up 11)
Who would you take?? Not Chicago, you are getting less value from the opening line. Cleveland covered 2H.
Game: Ok City -3.5
2H: Ok City -4
Adjusted Game Line : OKC +3, LAL -3 (LAL up 7)
Who would you take: Not LAL, you are getting less value from opening line. Especially on the road. OKC covered 2H.
Game
hoenix +12H: Phoenix +7
Adjusted Game Line: Phoenix -22, Portland +22. (Phoenix up 29)
Who would you take?? Pretty obvious. Portland. They covered 2H.
All 3 2H lines were covered by the team getting value against the opening line. This is the point I was trying to make. Lines are calibrated for a full 48 minutes, not 24 minutes. More often than not, teams will level out and come closer to the original lines. Linemakers aren't dumb.
Not every game has a play. Not every play will win. But when you can find situations like these, they can be an excellent wager. For those of you interested, do these adjustments and look for situations like the ones above.
