2nd POST---WEEK 6 PLAYS

[TOMMYB]

2nd ARENA PLAYS OF THE YEAR—week 6

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I’M USING A POWER RATING SOMETHING SIMILAR TO WHAT ACE-ACE WAS USING IN HIS NFL PLAYS. IT PRODUCED WINNERS THE LAST 3 WEEKS SO HOPEFULLY IT WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE BEFORE IT NEEDS SOME ADJUSTING AS THE SEASON CONTINUES . ANYTHING I POST IS WHAT I HAVE ALREADY BET , YOUR CHOICE IS BET ALSO , FADE ME OR DO NOTHING . I DO NOT RATE MY PLAYS AND A BET IS 2% OF BANKROLL . YOU PLAY ACCORDING TO WHAT YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH .

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WEEK 6 BETS

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RECORD FOR LAST WEEK--- 2-1. SEASON TO DATE--- 2-1.

NO -5 W GOT A LUCKY WIN HERE BUT I’LL TAKE IT AS A WIN IS A WIN.

DAL +7 W

LA +4.5 L

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THIS WEEKS PLAYS

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AUST +7.5 THIS LINE LOOKS TOO HIGH , SO I’M ON THE DOG HERE.

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N.O. +3 I’M HOPING LAST WEEKS CLOSE CALL WAS THE WAKE UP CALL FOR THIS TEAM. DAL. BLOWS OUT PHIL LAST WEEK SCORING 72 , HOPE THEY LET DOWN THIS WEEK . STOERNER PLAYED 3 GOOD GAMES IN A ROW AND IS DUE FOR A LET DOWN GAME.

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N.Y. -2.5 PHIL. FIRES COACH AFTER THAT LOSS LAST WEEK , WHICH I SEE AS A NEGATIVE HERE FOR THIS TEAM. N.Y. PLAYING WELL AND GRAZIANI NOT PLAYING THAT WELL.

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L.A. +3 ARZ QB BONNER WAS EITHER RUSTY LAST WEEK OR STILL PARTIALLY INJURED THROWING 6 PICKS , AND THEIR DEFENSE IS NOT PLAYING THAT WELL. I’LL TAKE THE POINTS HERE

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VEGAS MUST LOVE PINNACLE FOR EVENING OUT THE LINES EACH WEEK. BUT I THINK SOMEONE IS GOING TO GET FIRED THERE IF SOME OF THOSE HIGH PRICED DOGS DON’T COME IN . LINES ARE POUNDED EACH WEEK , UNBELIEVABLE .

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MY LINES SAY THAT THESE BIG FAVORITES HAVE BEEN PUSHED TOO FAR BUT I WILL TAKE GURU’s ADVICE AND STAY AWAY BECAUSE THEY COVER MORE THAN THEY LOSE. CAN’T BUCK A STRONG TREND LIKE THAT . I’LL STICK WITH THE LOWER PRICED DOGS THAT SHOULD BE COMPETITIVE IN THEIR GAMES .

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GOOD LUCK PEOPLE , MAY ALL YOUR BETS COME IN

 

[AFLGuru]

Not too shabby my friend... Austin is one of these high priced dogs, though. But law of averages says at least one of them is covering this weekend. I'll take LV by 7, won't you?

 

[TOMMYB]

I'd Rather Have The First Line I Saw , L.v -2.5 , I Was Hoping Dolezel Would Be Playing And He Was Rusty From The Layoff.

 

[AFLGuru]

Dolezel's likely out another week.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Tommy.....its Funny That My 3 Top Pick With "my Line" Is The Same As Your's....

My Top Bet Is L.a. ...............+10 1/2 Point Value

Austin.................................+10 Point Value

And

Ny.......................................+6 Point Value

The N.o. Game................i Have 0 Value The Line Is Right....

It Would Be Fun To See What Value You Have On L.a. ....austin And Ny

And What Value You Put On What??....

It Seem We May Be Close....

Good Luck This Week


Ace

 

[AFLGuru]

Tommy--

If you'd rather have Vegas at -2.5, you can't lay the excess in the game. The first goal in the AFL is picking the winner. If your winner doesn't match with the points, unless it's over 7 (which I guess in this case it is... but that's not where it opened, it's where it artificially moved to by rx), you can't play it because it's "too many points." In most cases, points don't matter. Though I think that this will level out to a relative number, I don't know how high that number is going to be.

Best of luck as always.

--AFLGuru

 

[TOMMYB]

HI ACE:

I WILL TRY AND EXPLAIN MY METHOD HERE . I AM USING 6 STATS TO MAKE MY LINE AT THE PRESENT TIME. I'M USING TEAM AVERAGES SO AS NOT TO HAVE LOPSIDED STATS AS SOME TEAMS HAVE A BYE AND OTHERS HAVE NOT HAD ONE YET , SO TOTAL STATS SEEM MISLEADING.

1. TEAMS LINE MARGIN.
2. AVERAGE RUSHING YARDS.
3. AVERAGE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE.
4. AVERAGE PASSING YARDS.
5. AVERAGE T.O.'s.
6. AVERAGE PENALTY YARDS.

THESE ARE THE STATS I CONSIDERED IMPORTANT. I COMPRE THE TEAMS IN A MATCHUP AND SUBTRACT ONE FROM THE OTHER AND USE A DIVISOR TO GIVE ME A NUMBER FOR THE TEAM WITH THE BETTER STATS IN THAT CATEGORY AND TOTAL THEM UP FOR A FINAL NUMBER TO MAKE MY LINE.

LIKE I SAID THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL AND I GO BY COMMON SENSE TO SEE IF IT LOOKS RIGHT, IF I THINK IT'S OFF I ADJUST THE DIVISOR AS SOME STATS ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN OTHERS.

MY LINE ON MY BETS

TEAM --- MY LINE---BOOK LINE
L.A. 13 +4.5
AUST 2.5 +7.5
N.O. 5 +1.5
N.Y. 4.5 +1

THIS IS MY STARTING POINT AND NOW I CONSIDER OTHER FACTORS LIKE SCORING , SCORING AT THE SITE FOR BOTH TEAMS ( RD + HM ) , QB RATINGS ( I DO MY OWN ) , STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE AND ANY THING ELSE I THINK OF THAT IS IMPORTANT. AND NATURALLY I READ THE POSTS OF KNOWLEGABLE POSTERS LIKE AFL GURU .

HOPE THIS HELPS , BUT I THINK YOU AND I USE SOMETHING THAT IS SIMILAR AND WE SHOULD BE ON THE SAME SIDES IN MOST CASES.

 

[AFLGuru]

Tommy B--

Going to try to make some constructive suggestions on modifications to your system, mostly on what's not important instead of what is important.

What's not important: Rushing is not important. Yards per attempt rushing is what matters. Nashville is a good rushing team. But Nashville doesn't have a great average on runs. They shouldn't get bonus points because of it. Also, QB scrambles need to be considered negative yards. If Mike Bishop scrambles for over 40 yards a game, it's because his line is poor.

Not as important: Penalty yards... The worst penalties in the AFL aren't the 10 yard varieties... It's the 5 yard varities. You're going to get flagged for pass interference in this league. Most of the time, it's a constructive penalty that saved a big play or a touchdown. Offsides isn't necessarily a bad penalty either if you pick up a sack per every 3 offsides penalties. False start and delay of game on offense and illegal defense or illegal formations on defense... critical mistakes. Shows how disciplined you are, and I believe that this is your aim with this stat. Also, penalties on 3rd down defensively are critical.

However, you've got some dead on stats. QB passing percentage should be your #1 stat. It's the most important stat in the AFL short of +/- turnover ratio. You must realize this though... if a QB has better than an 80% completion percentage, he probably made some poor choices. A QB is going to have to throw the ball away at least 3 times a game to avoid a sack or a bonehead throw. Receivers are also going to drop balls. If you can figure out how to calculate these factors in as well, this is the most telling stat in the AFL on whether or not you will win games.

Passing yards... also not as important. Yards after catch are.

You've tipped the iceberg on the stats which I keep for my records, Tommy. You really have a solid start. Build on it and you will go far in AFL capping, guaranteed. Go to some games, watch some games, and you'll learn a lot more about the game and capping it. You'll find the little things that seem obvious in the NFL might not be so obvious in the AFL, and the things that you wouldn't consider or don't exist in the NFL are extremely relative in the AFL.

And always... no matter how you do it... ALWAYS calculate your own QB ratings in all brands of football because the QB rating system is stupid. Just because you complete a 99 yard screen pass that your receiver makes a hell of a catch on, breaks 4 tackles, and dives into the end zone when tightrope walking down the sidelines doesn't make you a perfect passer.

But seriously, keep this up. You've hit on a lot of the keys. I've by no means perfected the stats in which I keep, but I keep a stats as a feverish pace in the AFL. Trends are very important, but if you have a system that works, you'll find out when the trends are going to be bucked.

--AFLGuru

 

[TOMMYB]

THANKS FOR THE INFO , I WILL PUT IT TO GOOD USE. EVEN A YOUNG PUP LIKE YOU CAN TEACH AN OLD DOG LIKE ME SOME NEW TRICKS . I LOVE IT . MY QUEST FOR KNOKLEDGE IN FOOTBALL IS BOUNDLESS. THANK YOU , AND DROP A HINT ANYTIME YOU FEEL LIKE !!!!!!! :digit:

 

[TOMMYB]

After 2 Days The Lines Are Starting To Move In Vegas As They Are Taking The Big Dogs , Lv Drops From -7.5 To -6.5 , Geo Drops From -10 To -9 , Tb From -14 To -13 , And Chic From -11 To -10 .


Adding 1 Play Nash +11.

 

[AFLGuru]

Don't worry, they'll level back. This happens every week around 2:00 or 3:00 of gameday. This is when the other books release THEIR AFL lines. That being said, the lines are being regulated now by a mass amount of people over various sportsbooks. They'll level back towards game time. By the way, I love the Nashville play and might jump on myself before I leave tomorrow. Scary game for the Rush. I'll post the rest of this in my forum, as there some 'splaining to do! BOL.

--AFLGuru

 

[ACE-ACE]

Tommy.....its Funny That My 3 Top Pick With "my Line" Is The Same As Your's....

My Top Bet Is L.a. ...............+10 1/2 Point Value...WINNER

Austin.................................+10 Point Value.......WINNER

And

Ny.......................................+6 Point Value......WINNER


Ace

THE POWER RATING WORK THIS WEEK

I WAS 3-0......


YOU WENT 4-0



GOOD JOB....



THIS BUD FOR YOU