2nd half NBA Picks

[TonyTotals]

What is this that Playboy is not gonna show nude photos anymore? That's like Sports Illustrated not gonna show sports articles anymore. Hugh Hefner must be so tired of p*ssy. Bangin' playboy playmates is as exciting to him as one of us eating a plain bowl of cheerios for breakfast. So, if they are not gonna show t!ts and azz anymore, what the fcuk are they gonna show? Old people knitting quilts?


I remember when I bought my first porno mag. I was about fourteen. It was at one of those magazine huts you see on the streets of any big city. I walked up and bought some candy and some sports magazines then I asked if I could see that magazine. I pointed to the ones that were kept under lock and key. He gave me a good look over, he had to know I was young, but instead of asking me how old I was, he asked which one. I said that one, getting closer and pointing. He grabbed a magazine where the woman on the cover was sucking her own t!ts. I said, not that one. That ome. The one where the pregnant woman is shooting her breast milk all over the guys dick. He handed it right over like I pointed to a comic. Safe it to say he got all my business for the next four years.


Here's what we got tonight:


IND -7
OKC -3.5
HOU +2
ORL -7


IND because the Pacers are 0 - 4 this year as a Home/Fav between 7 and 9.5. They are now playimg a team slowly falling apart and it is safe to assume that there is a major correction needed for this game situation and I think it starts tonght.


OKC because Thunder have covered 87% of the time as a road/fave between 3 and 6.5. I don't see any correction someing soon as they have won their last three in this situation.


HOU because the Rockets are 2 - 6 as road/dogs under three. I see a correction starting tonight as they are playing a James less Cavs.


ORL because BRK is in the middle of correction. BRK was once covering at a rate of 70% as a road/dog between 7 and 9.5, since they have lost their last two in the situation. I expect the correction to continue. ORL is 0 - 2 as a home fav in the situation. I think they grab their first cover in the situation tonight

 

[TonyTotals]

I was with my crazy cousin today Freshly cured of his STD. We went to the house of a friend of his. The three of us were going to the Parx casino. On the way out, the friend said he forgot to take his medicine and said to hold up. This kid proceeded to take a few pills from a prescription bottle, crush them up on a table, and then snorts them. What happened to swallowing pills? What did the doctor do? Say, 'Crush three of these up and snort them twice a day then call me next week'. I wonder of medical offices will one day start implanting the pills into people's brains. This way they don't have to wait that twenty minutes for the pill to dissolve in the stomach. God twenty minutes is a long time.


Here's me tonight:


TOR pk
MIL -7.5
MEM -2.5


TOR because I am going to ride a correction on ATL. ATL is 7 - 3 as a road dog under three. TOR is a tough road game for them and that 70% will start to fall back to the mean tonight


MIL because we are going to ride a streak here. PHX is 1 - 8 as a road dog between 7 and 9.5. They have been bad in this situation all year, and they are a bad team at the end of a bad season. We ride MIL here.


MEM because MEM is 5 - as a Home/Fav under three. That's 71%. I think that trend continues tonight.

 

[TonyTotals]

I'll take the profit last night. These team situation ATS records seem to be paying dividends in trying to predict how teams will fair ATS.


Here's what I have for tonight:


ORL +7.5
HOU -6.5
PORT -3.5


ORL because IND is 0 - 5 ATS as a Home/Fav between 7 and 9.5. Plus, this is the last meeting of the year between these two and IND has won and covered the previous three, I wouldn't be surprised if ORL won this game.


HOU because CHI is 16.67% as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. HOU is 20% as a home fav of the same range. I think the CHI woes continue on the road. These two teams seem to split every year with the home team winning and covering. Earlier this year, CHI won 108 - 100 in CHI. Tonight, HOU starts the correction back to the mean for this game situation.


PORT because BOS is 37% as a road dog between 3 and 6.5, PORT is 77% as a home fav between 3 and 6.5. PORT has been strong all year at home within this range. The trend continues tonight.


DON'T FORGET APRIL'S FREE NBA CONTEST STARTS TOMORROW

 

[TonyTotals]

Orlando out right win. I had them straight for a dime. I had a nickel on the money line at +350. I had Orlando hooked up with Port in a dime reverse...


Then I came in my pants, came back to reality and realized I had $25 on them. The sad news is, in about twenty years you won't be able to buy a used rubber for $25 bucks. You would think a used rubber wouldn't have much purpose, but what happens if you want to frame someone for rape?


Good news is, the two new tools I have had in development for the last 4 months are nearly complete. The site will offer sports bettors a three pronged approach to handicapping and offer tools at their disposal that have never been available before. I have been using a scaled down version of one of the new tools the 2nd half of the NBA season and have been chopping out winners. The tools will be open to the public for you to use to aid your cause in making profits bettIng on sports.

 

[TonyTotals]

My girl makes me sit through this Bachelor show. I could never do a show like that because the first girl to blow me in the hot tub would win. That jerk-off host would be like, 'It's the first episode.' I would say, 'Doesn't matter. I got my girl'. Who comes up with these shows? I think they should combine the Bachelor with that show 'My 600 pound Life' on TLC, about the obese people that have such little self control that they need their fckin stomachs stapled. I think if a girl is dismissed from the bachelor, they should have to eat the azzhole of one of the fat bastards from my 600 pound life. Now, that's a punishment. Plus, it will loosen the girls up a bit. There will be more blowin on that show than at the Bunny Ranch in Vegas. I should work in TV.


Here's what we got tonight:


MIL -2.5
NY -5.5
SAC +7.5
UTA -8

 

[oatiko]

good luck bud!

 

[TonyTotals]

I swear, every time I do not post the reasoning behind the picks, I either sweep or lose one. It's weird.


MIL was a correction play against ORL who was 67% ATS as a road dog under three. They were coming off of the out right road win as a +7.5 dog (that I predicted), and now jumping into a situation where they have performed well above the mean the entire season. ORL is an avg team at best. It's time for them to fall back to the mean.


NY was a continuation play. NYK was 67% ATS as a home fav between 3 and 6.5 this season. BRK was 33% ATS as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. BRK is a bad team, its not unreasonable to think that bad play in weak categories especially when playing a team that is strong in theirs.


SAC was a major correction game. SAC was 14% ATS this year as a home dog between 7 and 9.5. That is way, way below the mean, that's skewed pretty much as far away from the mean that you can get. This will start falling back to the mean, and it may not appear again this year,


UTA was a correction play against MIN, who was 73% ATS this year as a road dog between 7 and 9.5. They are 11 - 4. So they have been in the situation a lot coming in and they have dominated, well above the mean. MIN is a bad team. This will fall back to the mean and it will probably appear a few more times this season.


Sometimes, I feel like what's the point of explaining, especially if I am pressed for time and I have to go. Some people just care if the picks win or lose who cares what the reason is.


My research has showed me that this is a mean business in more ways than one. It's mean cause its tough to beat and takes no prisoners, but it is also mean because statistics always fall back to the mean over time. I am getting a good handle on which plays are corrections and which plays are continues.

 

[TonyTotals]

Looking to piggy back on the nice 8 - 2 run I am on. Looking through all the data, I have come up with these selections for tonight:


PHI +11
SA -11.5
PORT -5.5


PHI is 1 - 5 ATS (16.67%) as a home dog between 10 and 13.5. That is really skewed off the mean and will start to fall back. Being a home dog of this many is a strong situation for a team to be so weak in. Not to mention this is the teams last meeting and IND has won and covered all three this year. This is a carroection play on two fronts. One, PHI as a home fav between 10 and 13.5 but also for IND who is 3 - 0 ATS vs PHI this year.


SA is 9 - 6 (60%) ATS as a home fav between 10 and 13.5. They have been steady all season long in this situation. They are comfortable laying this many points at home. Plus, TOR beat SA in TOR earlier in the year, so the revenge factor is in play.


PORT is 10 - 2 ATS as a home fav between 3 and 6.5. CHI is 3 - 9 ATS as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. No Wade. No bosh. Miami won and covered vs PORT in MIA earlier. We are riding PORT to continue their dominance in this situation especially against a banged up team that struggles in their situation.

 

[TonyTotals]

Somehow the sixers blew that game after holding a two point lead at the half way mark of the 4th quarter. Those losses are always nice.


Rebound today. What else could you do? I mean I already cursed out the entire franchise, all the players' mothers, and wished death on the coach and his entire family tree,


Here's what I got today:


BRK -6
HOU +3
ORL -4.5
CHI +2.5


No explanation today because I really want to go 3 - 1 or better.

 

[TonyTotals]

Just like magic. No explanation, bang, 3 - 1.


Brk was a play against NO who was 7 - 11 (38.8%) as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. They were also without their best player. So, I thought the trend had a good chance of continuing.


Hou was a correction play on OKC who was 7 - 2 as a road fav between 3 and 6.5. That is well above the mean and will drop.


ORL was a correction play vs Mem who came in 4 - 1 ATS as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. That is skewed way off the mean for just an avg team.


Chi was also a correction play on Chi who came in at 3 - 7 ATS as a road dog of three or less. That is well off the mean and will start its way back towards it.

 

[RussellPeters]

Awesome job! Love your thread man, keep on posting the hilarious stories and winners! Much respect brother! Thank you! How's Gorilla Dick doing these days?

 

[TonyTotals]

Gorilla Dick went to the doctor the other day, he told him to fcuk two nineteen year old blondes and call him in the morning. Wouldn't that be magical if that was accepted medicine for ailments? You walk into the doctor with a crippling back problem, he prescribes a double blowjob from two college girls. You know you're going to feel better afterward, probably jump off the couch and start doing parkour and sh!t.

 

[TonyTotals]

My girl asked me to tell a bed time story to her 7 year old nephew. So I said, OK. I turned to him and said, 'There was this pregnant hooker and...' My girl starts screaming that it's not appropriate, what are you doing? So I said, I'm sorry. Let me try again. 'Once upon a time there was this pregnant hooker and...'


No NBA tonight. I got them on the run. They're scared. I can feel it.

 

[TonyTotals]

Does anybody else get these repetitive sales calls to their home phone line like I do? I mean they call every single day. Sometimes I answer and in a Chinese accent ask them if it is pick up or delivery/ Sometimes I answer just to tell the person on the other end that their mother is a whore. Today I was home and I had just dropped a pitcher of iced tea on the kitchen floor, then as I was cleaning it up I slipped on the wet floor and twisted the sh!t out of my ankle. I was pissed. Then the phone rang, I looked at the caller ID and it was a weird number with an area code I didn't know, so I picked it up and immediately said, 'You c)ck suckin mother fckin two bit rat bastards mother fuckers! Your mothers take big black d!cks up their fckin ass and they fckin like it! You scum bag mother fckers!


After my tirade was over I heard a woma on the line say, 'Hello, I'm from the Big Brother's and Big Sisters Of America...'


Safe to say that they did not feel I was ready to start mentoring a troubled kid. Oh well.


Back on after a night off. Here is what we have tonight:


CHI -3
MIA -4
OKC -8.5
SAC +3
LAL +14.5


These are all correction plays.


CHI covered 12.5% of the time as a road fav between 3 and 6.5
MIA covered 38% of the time this year as a home fav between 3 and 6.5
OKC has covere only 16% of the time as a road fav between 7 and 9.5
SAC covered only 14% of the time as a home dob between 3 and 6.5
LAL have covered only 28% of the time as a road dog 14 or more.


These five teams are skewed far enough away from the mean to make me think corrections will start being made.

 

[TonyTotals]

Ok. Looking for a rebound night after the 2 - 3 last night. Thought I had that SAC game but the pigs let it slip away at the end.


Here's what we have tonight:


IND -3.5
DET +3
WAS -13.5
OKC +3


IND: CLV is 5 - 0 this year as a road dog between 3and 6.5. That number will start to fall back to the mean.


DET: ORL has covered 83% of the time as a home/fav between 3 and 6.5. That's way too high for a team of their caliber


WAS: BRK has covered 77% of the time this year as a road/dog between 10 and 13.5. Bad teams have a hard time sustaining dominance and I expect this to correct.


OKC: Port has covered 81% of the time as a home dog between 3 and 6.5. Besides this correction, OKC has had Port number and I expect that to continue.

 

[TonyTotals]

I cancelled my OKC bet. Durant and Wedtbrook are now both out and line jumped to 7. I'll take the 3 - 0 and call it a day.

 

[TonyTotals]

I have a brain dead Uncle that I talk to from time to time. He was in the Vietnam War and really seen some sh!t in his day, but I swear he was huffing the agent Orange a little too hard because the guy is a friggin' wacko. He calls me out of the blue the other day complaining about how Hollywood killed the Western. He said, 'I was watching this cowboy movie on cable the other day, and then all of a sudden they started fckin' each other in the ass. The movie is called Bareback Mountain. You ever seen it?'


He said the liberal, politically correct rejects in Hollywood ruin everything. I told him I'd make a few calls to sort it all out for him.


Fresh off a 3 - 0. Small board tonight. I got two plays I like.


CHI +6
ATL -7.5


CHI: They are 4 - 11 as a road dog between 3 and 6.5. MIA has beaten them all three times this year. This is the last and final meeting. Wouldn't be surprised if CHI won out right.


ATL: Line opened up at 6. My site has 64% of opinions on TOR, but line went up to 7.5. This is a classic case of the public over valuing a dog.

 

[TonyTotals]

I'm sitting in the Sugar House casino right now playing some 1 - 2 NL poker. Some old fcuk who probably don't even know what century it is just called my all in because he miss read his hand, only to get lucky on the river to win anyway. The dealer had to tell him he won. The guy is in a wheel chair, wearing a World War Two army cap, and I swear he has a morphine drip going into his arm. You could dig up a corpse and find more life in a human body.

I know we all get old, but while I'm relatively young I will make fun of the elderly for pure amusement. What the hell will oldies radio be like when I'm old. What are they gonna? Fcuk the Police? I Touch Myself? I could just picture it. It's 2050. Im 75 years old, cruising around in my vintage Tesla. I have the old time radio on, the DJ says, 'Right now for you I have a real treat, here is Hey, we want some p*ssy!

I say to my grandkids, See, this is when music was music. Not that crap you listen to now!

Here's what we got tonight. No explanation cause I'd really like to go 2 - 1 minimum.

 

[TonyTotals]

It would help if you posted the plays you jerk-off...

CHA -15
NO -2.5
MEM +6

 

[TonyTotals]

Been losing some squeakers lately. Gonna try and bounce back tonight. Four plays today. All these plays are either a correction on the team selected or a correction on their opponent.


BOS +5.5
CLV -6.5
OKC -7.5
PORT -8.5