292

[mrpickem]

Solid PPV tonight in Boston. The Sugga-Show to be derailed?

Been on a decent run last 2 weeks: [14-7 +19.1u]

View attachment 76767

 

[herb_dean]

sterling or o malley ?

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 292​

Early Prelims:

• Silva's an exciting Brazilian who has finished all 16 of her MMA wins (16-4). One of her losses was by armbar to Moroz back in 2014, so there will be a revenge edge. "The Iron Lady" has fought tougher comp but is only 3-3 in her last 6 UFC bouts. I expect these ladies set a high pace with both coming forward and Moroz using slick movement with heavy volume while Silva will attempt to close distance to a clinch... eventually taking the fight to the ground where she can finish it be G-n-P or with her diverse sub game. I think she gets a finish fairly early.
• Lee has surprised me in the past, but I doubt she'll be able to deal with the other Silva's speed and explosiveness. Lee is tough but the only way to play this is ITD because the odds are so big. I'll back the youthful up-n-comer versus the fading vet who's only 2-5 over last 7. Smallish play.
• GM3 is solid on the ground with a variety of chokes in his arsenal. Thing is Petroski likely moves in quick behind big overhands while trying to get fight to the ground where he can use his excellent wrestling. He has very good top control, G-n-P, and an underrated sub game. Yes, he could get caught if he makes even the slightest mistake as Meerschaert is a savvy operator on the ground. I expect Andre will be too powerful on the mat and savvy enough to win a one-sided decision or possibly a finish late.

 

[exploited17]

I see Sterling winning 80% or more often if they fought 100 times. Also think likely a finish.

JMO
GL

 

[mrpickem]

Early action...

UFC 292​

• 3/2.46 KARINE SILVA -122
• 2/3.34 LEE vs SILVA u2½ +167
• 3/5.10 Karine Silva Wins Inside Distance +170
• 3/1.24 ANDRE PETROSKI -224
• 2/1.82 ANDRE PETROSKI KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -110

 

[mrpickem]

Nice start...forgot this one, too many silvas lol

• 2/3.30 Natalia Silva Wins Inside Distance +165

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 292​

ESPN Prelims:

• Lean with Katona becoming the first ever to win 2 TUF titles. He should have a decided edge striking based on speed & skill. It won't hurt that he brings heavy volume as well. His exceptional TDD should keep the fight standing for the most part and we likely see a 3-round decision.
• Hopefully Holobaugh has his head in the right place as he has appeared un-motivated in the past. He has a powerful striking game and a good grappler as well. I'm taking a shot with the higher firepower here at good plus odds.
• When Robocop fights, expect a banger and it will be no different tonight. I believe Rodrigues is better anywhere the fight goes and will have multiple ways to finish the fight. While Tiuliulin's record is not that good, dude comes to fight and has 9 KOs in his 10 wins. If he can somehow goad Gregory into a brawl, he may just have a chance...unlikely.
• Weidman looks to be in great shape, and he seems extremely focused in getting this comeback win. I'll take a chance with him at good dog money. Like the under quite well too. If Chris can get it to the ground, his chances will improve greatly, if not...I doubt he can stand for long with Brad.

 

[mrpickem]

ESPN Prelim Action​

[3-3 +2.8u]

• 3/1.73 BRAD KATONA -173
• 3/1.29 GIBSON vs KATONA o2½ -232
• 3/4.74 Kurt Holobaugh +158
• 4/1.60 GREGORY RODRIGUES KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -250
• 3/4.05 GREGORY RODRIGUES IN ROUND 1 +135
• 2/4.06 CHRIS WEIDMAN +203
• 2/3.38 WEIDMAN vs TAVARES u1½ +169

 

[mrpickem]

Main Card:​

• Vera and Munoz are both very durable and neither has been finished, Pedro has aged well and is still very sharp at 36. He has great defense along with a big right hand. He also likes to attack his opponents' legs with powerful low kicks. If he can maintain distance and avoid Vera's inside clinch game, he can carry the scorecards. Vera is dangerous but has proven a notoriously slow starter so he may lose the 1st almost by default. Would probably take "Chito" if it were 5 rounds. This could prove to be a fight of the night candidate.
• Blackshear is in a win-win situation. He's fighting a ranked opponent on less than a weeks' notice as he fought and won last Saturday night in Vegas. The UFC always appreciated fighter willing to step up and take fight anyone when needed so even with a loss, he still looks good to Dana. Bautista will have the pressure though, as this is his first PPV main card fight, and he'll be expected to win vs the short notice guy as a sizeable favorite. "Da Monster" will bring a completely different style than Mario's originally scheduled opponent. If his cardio can hold up after 2 quick cuts, he may just find himself ranked next week. I'll ride another dog here to get the finish under the total.
• Magny is a savage to jump in with a guy like Garry on 2 weeks' notice...plus only 2 months since last fight. I wish he was on a full camp so we could really get a better read where "The Future" is. However, at the moment I think Ian is too skilled and rangy...even versus the long Magny, Garry utilizes a wide variety of deadly kicks. At these odds, the only play for me will be ITD and under even though Magny is durable and only finished twice in his lengthy UFC career.

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 292​

Main Card Action

[8-5 +12.21u]

• 4/6.12 PEDRO MUNHOZ +153
• 4/6.92 DA'MON BLACKSHEAR +173
• 4/2.50 Ian Garry Wins Inside Distance -160
• 2/3.02 MAGNY vs GARRY u1½ +151

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 292​

Top of the Card:

• Weili is a great all-around martial artist, but still her striking may not match up well with the crushing power Lemos brings. At this weight, I don't know if I've ever seen more one-punch poser from any other fighter. Now Weili is a huge favorite for a reason, if she fights smart and doesn't enter a slugfest she probably prevails. Thing is she's very prideful and believes she can beat anyone at their game if needed. If she follows this trend, it may not end well for her.
• Surprised to see myself backing O'Malley, but it is what it is. Sterling is still underrated and underappreciated even after multiple title defenses. His grappling is dominant, and it is the biggest perceived advantage tonight. O'Malley is sharpshooter who can find the mark from long-range weapons. He's very slick with his movement and timing. His height and length also make him a tough matchup at 135. He'll have to defend takedowns endlessly, but his grappling defense was fairly competent in his win over Yan. Aljo has always struggled with this weight cut to 135 and if Sugga puts damage on him early, the grappling may not matter. I'll take a shot with O'Malley to score the upset.

 

[mrpickem]

Final Action...sticking with the dogs! Woof woof!

[8-9 -1.79u]

• 4/10.88 AMANDA LEMOS +272
• 4/8.40 SEAN O'MALLEY +210

 

[mrpickem]

Good card overall, especially with Sean getting me back positive in last fight!

UFC 292​

3/2.46 KARINE SILVA -122
3/5.10 Karine Silva Wins Inside Distance +170
2/3.34 LEE vs SILVA u2½ +167
2/3.30 Natalia Silva Wins Inside Distance +165
3/1.24 ANDRE PETROSKI -224
2/1.82 ANDRE PETROSKI KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -110
3/1.73 BRAD KATONA -173
3/1.29 GIBSON vs KATONA o2½ -232
3/4.74 Kurt Holobaugh +158
4/1.60 GREGORY RODRIGUES KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -250
3/4.05 GREGORY RODRIGUES IN ROUND 1 +135
2/4.06 CHRIS WEIDMAN +203
2/3.38 WEIDMAN vs TAVARES u1½ +169
4/6.12 PEDRO MUNHOZ +153
4/6.92 DA'MON BLACKSHEAR +173
4/2.50 Ian Garry Wins Inside Distance -160
2/3.02 MAGNY vs GARRY u1½ +151
4/10.88 AMANDA LEMOS +272
4/8.40 SEAN O'MALLEY +210

[9-10 +2.31u]

 

[mrpickem]