286

[mrpickem]

Big Card in England with early 1240 EST start

Early action

• 3/2.40 JULIANA MILLER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
• 3/1.49 LUDOVIT KLEIN -201
• 2/2.92 JAI HERBERT vs LUDOVIT KLEIN o2½ +146

Not sure why Hardy is returning after 3 years when she was only 1-4 in the UFC before. Millers has the youth, the TUF winner and a slick BJJ game

Klein is a head kick machine highlight reel, but both have good striking defense so it may turn into a snoozer decision.

 

[mrpickem]

and the next few...

• 2/3.04 LUANA CAROLINA +152
• 3/2.16 MALCOLM GORDON vs JAKE HADLEY o1½ -139
• 3/2.22 Christian L. Duncan Wins Inside Distance -135
• 1.96/2 TODOROVIC vs DUNCAN u1½ +102

​

• Carolina...Wood has almost 10 years' experience and a decent MuayThai
  
  striking game, her problem is durability when she gets tested, which Wood is certain to bring with her pocket boxing game and beastly physique.
• Hadley Decision...Hadley(9-1) is a functional striker that works best from top control. Gordon is a sound grappler with a questionable chin that will be a good test for Jake.
• Duncan ITD...Debut for Duncan(7-0) but he's undefeated and has finished all but 1 opponent to date. Dusko(12-3) was originally hyped but defensive lapses have been his downfall.

 

[mrpickem]

[3-3-1 -0.86 u]

• 4/2.21 LERONE MURPHY -181
• 3/1.13 Sam Patterson -265
• 3/3.15 Muhammad Mokaev by Submission +105
• 3/2.97 Chris Duncan -101
• 2/2.80 Chris Duncan Wins Inside Distance +140

LERONE MURPHY(11-0-1) VS GABRIEL SANTOS(10-0)

• Murphy...Murpphy has beaten some names in Makwan Amirkhani, Douglas Silva de Andrade and Ricardo Ramos and is entering his physical prime. He boasts a well-rounded skillset that can cause any FW issues. Santos just won the LFA Featherweight Tournament two months ago and also has yet to lose. The Southpaw striker relies on his left-side head kick and doesn't even attempt to mask it. Gabriel’s tendency to shoot a single leg during is something that Murphy will punish viciously.

MUHAMMAD MOKAEV(9-0) VS JAFEL FILHO(14-2)

• Mokaev Sub...Mokaev's only 22 and already has wins over Cody Durden, Charles Johnson and Malcolm Gordon, but he has yet to face adversity in the UFC so far. He's being carefully managed as he progresses up the FW division. Filho debuts after a TKO victory over the undefeated Roybert Echeverria on the DWCS. Filho throws hard but often limits his volume to 2-strike combos. His basic kickboxing will allow Mokaev to time takedowns, although he could struggle with Fihlo's physicality and size.

SAM PATTERSON(10-1-1) VS YANAL ASHMOZ(6-0)

• Patterson...Patterson debuts with a massive 6’3″ LW frame and looks to impose it early. He has been poor at cage cutting and finds his best work up close. Ashmoz, also debuts off a dominating beatdown of Dennis Hughes. Sam’s size likely prevents a similar ground’n’pound roll but the wrestling threat remains.

CHRIS DUNCAN(9-1) VS OMAR MORALES(11-3)

• Duncan TKO...Duncan is a heavy-handed striker with a liberal attitude towards defense. Duncan’s game plan is often feint-pause-feint-pause-blind flurry. It’s then a coin flip as to whether he connects or eats a counter. Morales has dropped 3 of his last 5 while flipping between pure striking and pure grappling technique. He is running out of time to find a winning approach as he slides off an athletic cliff at 37.

 

[mrpickem]

wow, dude got it done with a fucked up knee...surprised he dint tap

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 286
3/2.40 JULIANA MILLER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -125
3/1.49 LUDOVIT KLEIN -201
2/2.92 JAI HERBERT vs LUDOVIT KLEIN o2½ +146
2/3.04 LUANA CAROLINA +152
3/2.16 MALCOLM GORDON vs JAKE HADLEY o1½ -139
3/2.22 Christian L. Duncan Wins Inside Distance -135
1.96/2 TODOROVIC vs DUNCAN u1½ +102
4/2.21 LERONE MURPHY -181
3/3.15 Muhammad Mokaev by Submission +105
3/1.13 Sam Patterson -265

[5-4-1 +1.5u]
..pending
3/2.97 Chris Duncan -101
2/2.80 Chris Duncan Wins Inside Distance +140

Last of the Prelims

• 3/2.00 JACK SHORE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
• 2/1.19 SHORE vs AMIRKHANI u2½ -168

JACK SHORE(16-1) VS MAKWAN AMIRKHANI

• Shore ITD...This will be a great matchup with the Welsh wizard looking to resume climbing the BW rankings after the setback that was Ricky Simon. Shore is a technical mastermind on the mat but lacks the grit or nuance to takedown the more physically gifted foes. Amirkhani is a huge first-round threat. He's spent way too much timer trying to out-strike opponents who have avoided his gifted submission arsenal. Shore, a consummate game planner, should be smart enough to allow Amirkhani to self-implode.

 

[mrpickem]

[8-5-1 +5.66u]

• 4/1.57 MARVIN VETTORI -255
• 3/1.73 CASEY ONEILL -173
• 1.60/2 Casey ONeill by Points +125
• 3/3.84 Barberena vs Nelson o2½ +128

Main Card:
MARVIN VETTORI VS ROMAN DOLIDZE

• Vettori...Vettori isn't afraid to fight the best. Roman Dolidze marks a notable step-down in competition compared to his recent foes. Dolidze is no stranger to operating off his back, and has beaten Kyle Daukaus, Phil Hawes and Jack Hermansson as a 2022 surprise package. More confident use of his athletic gifts has seen the XL MW bully opponents on the feet and mat. Dolidze’s grappling will hit the wall vs the mentally unbreakable Italian, but it should prove a captivating bout with Marvin’s conditioning playing a big role late.

JENNIFER MAIA VS CASEY O’NEILL(9-0)

• O’Neill Decision...Maia remains a durable, front-foot pressure fighter but does it really matter in this barren division? Hot-shot prospect, Casey O’Neill, hopes so. The young Aussie spent 2021 carving through the bottom of the FW barrel. O’Neill squeaked out a split decision over veteran Roxanne Modafferi but landed almost double the significant strikes. If she realizes body work pays off, she may possibly be a challenge for Grasso’s title.

GUNNAR NELSON VS BRYAN BARBERENA

• Nelson...Gunner returns to the octagon after a short-lived retirement. Gunni’s awkward karate stance was punished by Gilbert Burns and Leon Edwards in 2019, but his subms can never be written off. Barberena’s 3-fight streak over worm battle worn foes crumbled to a 2nd Rnd sub to RDA in December. Bam Bam sticks with a high-volume pressure game but tends to walk onto takedowns. Nelson’s wrestling traditionally struggles but this feels like a nice match-up.

 

[mrpickem]

[9-8-1 -0.37u]

• 2/2.00 Rafael Fiziev Wins Inside Distance +100
• 2/2.20 Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO or DQ +110
• 1/3.85 Rafael Fiziev in Round 1 by KO/TKO or DQ +385

I hate to fade Justin, but I think maybe his time has come and gone...


Co-Main Event
JUSTIN GAETHJE(23-4) VS RAFAEL FIZIEV(12-1)

• Fiziev TKO...Gaethje’s brawling style has lost some lately as he's looked somewhat less confident in eating punishment and as such, has seen his style unravel. His chin looked shot last time out, under Charles Oliveira’s heavy-duty firepower. Unfortunate news for Gaethje’s attritional warfare in the pocket, an approach so reliant upon stellar durability. Eventually the chin just wears thin, Fiziev’s 5th-round KO over dos Anjos raised as many questions as it did answer. He did confirm he carries freak athletic prowess deep when needed. Fiziev also managed to keep himself standing against RDA’s relentless takedown threat. However, the few times Fiziev hit the mat, he looked weak against the weathered veteran. Gaethje has never shown desire to pursue a grappling-first gameplan, however. The Highlight’s leg kicks could frustrate Fiziev but it’s more likely that the Rafi find the kill switch,,,probably in Rnd 1 or 2.

 

[mrpickem]

Wow, much respect for Justin, should not have doubted him.

[9-11-1 -5.37u]

2/4.20 Leon Edwards +210

Main Event
LEON EDWARDS(20-3) VS KAMARU USMAN(20-2)

• Usman Decision...Fan or not, of Edwards’ conservative style, Rocky cemented himself in UFC folklore with his theatrics on the mic after an all-time-great comeback KO. A lot has been invested in the change in sea level ahead of this Main Event in London, but most fans just point to Edwards’ career tendency to drop off in the later rounds. Edwards’ underrated wrestling paid early dividends in the first against Usman. A similar shock factor is unlikely to surprise the former champ, but it is a skill set that left Usman uncomfortable on the feet – in a manner that Covington, Burns and Masvidal were unable to produce. Lights-out knockouts have a funny habit of transforming fighters. Kamaru enjoyed an extended run as champion on the back of his adaptability. It’s impossible to guess the Nigerian’s headspace but it would be foolish to immediately write off such a dominant champion. After all, Usman landed almost three times as many strikes as Edwards over the course of their 2nd fight. Smart play is Usman, but I'm gonna back Rocky at home.