Looking for some insight on this flick... I saw it a few months ago, and its very good -- but that doesn't really mean a whole lot when it comes to how well it does its opening 3-day weekend.
I've looked for some good comparison movies to try and judge what 27 Days Later's PSA (per screen average dollars) compared to the other movies, but each movie I've come up with has some sort of outside factor that may have swayed it:
House of 1,000 Corpses: $5816 PSA - would seem to be the best indicator of what 28 Days Later would do, as it looked like a low budget "old school" horror movie that had some good buzz surrounding it (although it sucked). My problem with this is, Rob Zombie has a young-teenage cult following that I think greatly effected this film's draw.
Wrong Turn: $3195 PSA - PSA is so low because it came out the same weekend as Finding Nemo AND The Italian Job, so moviegoers of all ages had a decent flick to catch instead.
Dreamcatcher: $5103 PSA - Big budget, but the previews looked *terrible* and I think that effected a lot of the PSA.
Based on those 3 summer horror movies, I feel Wrong Turn is the anomaly because of Nemo + Italian, so I peg 28 Days Later to do around $5000-$5500 PSA. At 1200 theaters, that puts it at around $6 to $6.5 million for the weekend.
Intertops is offering +225 if it goes over $7 million, but I just don't I can safely think that it has a better than 30% chance of going over $7 million.
Thoughts anyone?
I've looked for some good comparison movies to try and judge what 27 Days Later's PSA (per screen average dollars) compared to the other movies, but each movie I've come up with has some sort of outside factor that may have swayed it:
House of 1,000 Corpses: $5816 PSA - would seem to be the best indicator of what 28 Days Later would do, as it looked like a low budget "old school" horror movie that had some good buzz surrounding it (although it sucked). My problem with this is, Rob Zombie has a young-teenage cult following that I think greatly effected this film's draw.
Wrong Turn: $3195 PSA - PSA is so low because it came out the same weekend as Finding Nemo AND The Italian Job, so moviegoers of all ages had a decent flick to catch instead.
Dreamcatcher: $5103 PSA - Big budget, but the previews looked *terrible* and I think that effected a lot of the PSA.
Based on those 3 summer horror movies, I feel Wrong Turn is the anomaly because of Nemo + Italian, so I peg 28 Days Later to do around $5000-$5500 PSA. At 1200 theaters, that puts it at around $6 to $6.5 million for the weekend.
Intertops is offering +225 if it goes over $7 million, but I just don't I can safely think that it has a better than 30% chance of going over $7 million.
Thoughts anyone?
