I do a lot of work on situational handicapping. It does take a lot of basic understanding of why and where the money lies. It is easy to get fooled. Many handicappers like to bait their subscribers or potential subscribers with perfect systems, that are usually 16-0 ATS, 12-0 ATS, etc. There is one basic reason for that, PERFECT sells! It may be a methodology that works for them, and even you, but I have always taken a more practical long term, time tested approach to what I do. Today in the newsletter, I am going to take you through the process step by step. You will see that the number of games in the data set is exceptionally large. I like that simply because that has a much stronger chance to being meaningful, and holding up going forward. I say that because if odds makers were onto something, it would have ended a long time ago, trust me, they are not! Are they on 16-0 ATS "STREAKS" Of course they are aware most of the time, and knowing their audience, will likely adjust accordingly. Let's break down a logical long term favorite of mine, utilizing the rest component in the NBA.
If you look at 0 rest it is the one area that impacts an NBA team the most. That can be illustrated like this:
Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on 0 rest are 48.8% (over 2200 games)
Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on at least 1 day rest are 47.3%*** ( over 1800 games)
You can easily see an unrested home team vs a rested road team shows a slight bias, and slight blind profit on 1800+ games, that is statistically relevant.
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Now that you know this, when is it most relevant?
HOME FAVORITE 0 REST vs RESTED OPPONENT 48.7% (1800+ games)
HOME DOG 0 REST vs OPPONENT WITH REST 44.6% (close to 700 games)****
SO WHY THE HOME DOG STRUGGLES?
A team that is a home favorite, is likely to have the roster strength, and overall team strength, to at least endure the lack of rest. A home dog, obviously considered the inferior team, likely does not have the roster depth or team strength to overcome.
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It is the next step, that is highly logical that really shows a considerable edge:
DOES GAME NUMBER MATTER?
ANSWER: WITH 100% CERTAINTY!
HOME DOG WITH 0 REST PRIOR TO GAME 27 vs RESTED OPPONENT: 109-106-4 ATS .507
HOME DOG WITH 0 REST FROM GAME 27 ON (27 selected as it is 1/3 into the season) 191-267-7 ATS .417****
See, early in the season the rest component is not significant, because for the most part teams are fresh, the roster is healthy, and there is no edge either way. However, as we see, once we get 1/3 or more into the season, the inferior team shows why they are inferior. They are the disadvantaged team, probably have injuries, or are starting to get banged up, and the lack of roster depth shines through in a huge way. Odds makers won't pick up on this because their algorithms do not understand the seasonality of this huge predictor. If they do, it is all-inclusive, and the weak teams in this unrested role are not treated as inferior as they should.
Hopefully that is a good illustration of how situations are meaningful, well researched, and most importantly start from a singular profitable situation with 1000s of games, and are not back fitted to fit and make something look better than it is.
THE SDQL FOR THE FINAL SYSTEM IS:
rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and HD and game number >= 27
If you are interested in this type of logic consider my books at Amazon.com:
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...=aps&field-keywords=Top+NCAA+Football+Betting
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...Football+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...sketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...sketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
EAST (thanks for reading), questions? contact me at weatherwizard@comcast.net
If you look at 0 rest it is the one area that impacts an NBA team the most. That can be illustrated like this:
Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on 0 rest are 48.8% (over 2200 games)
Home teams in the NBA on 0 rest and opponent on at least 1 day rest are 47.3%*** ( over 1800 games)
You can easily see an unrested home team vs a rested road team shows a slight bias, and slight blind profit on 1800+ games, that is statistically relevant.
*****************************************************************************************************
Now that you know this, when is it most relevant?
HOME FAVORITE 0 REST vs RESTED OPPONENT 48.7% (1800+ games)
HOME DOG 0 REST vs OPPONENT WITH REST 44.6% (close to 700 games)****
SO WHY THE HOME DOG STRUGGLES?
A team that is a home favorite, is likely to have the roster strength, and overall team strength, to at least endure the lack of rest. A home dog, obviously considered the inferior team, likely does not have the roster depth or team strength to overcome.
********************************************************************************************************
It is the next step, that is highly logical that really shows a considerable edge:
DOES GAME NUMBER MATTER?
ANSWER: WITH 100% CERTAINTY!
HOME DOG WITH 0 REST PRIOR TO GAME 27 vs RESTED OPPONENT: 109-106-4 ATS .507
HOME DOG WITH 0 REST FROM GAME 27 ON (27 selected as it is 1/3 into the season) 191-267-7 ATS .417****
See, early in the season the rest component is not significant, because for the most part teams are fresh, the roster is healthy, and there is no edge either way. However, as we see, once we get 1/3 or more into the season, the inferior team shows why they are inferior. They are the disadvantaged team, probably have injuries, or are starting to get banged up, and the lack of roster depth shines through in a huge way. Odds makers won't pick up on this because their algorithms do not understand the seasonality of this huge predictor. If they do, it is all-inclusive, and the weak teams in this unrested role are not treated as inferior as they should.
Hopefully that is a good illustration of how situations are meaningful, well researched, and most importantly start from a singular profitable situation with 1000s of games, and are not back fitted to fit and make something look better than it is.
THE SDQL FOR THE FINAL SYSTEM IS:
rest = 0 and o:rest > 0 and HD and game number >= 27
| SU: | 124-341 (-6.52, 26.7%) | |
|---|---|---|
| ATS: | 191-267-7 (-1.45, 41.7%) | avg line: 5.1 |
If you are interested in this type of logic consider my books at Amazon.com:
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...=aps&field-keywords=Top+NCAA+Football+Betting
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...Football+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...sketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_...sketball+Betting+Systems+from+an+Industry+pro
EAST (thanks for reading), questions? contact me at weatherwizard@comcast.net
