2019 achandicap soccer plays

[achandicap]

New year, new thread, but hopefully the same kind of consistent winning that was 2018. After a slow start (including an awful World Cup), I came back strong with the Europa and Champion League opening rounds. I play England, Italy, Ireland, Colombia, Brazil, plus international tournaments. My plays are 1 to 5 units. Here we go...

TUESDAY
ENGLAND
Leicester +.5 -117/Everton, 2 units

 

[ThePoet]

Happy new year achandicap! Thanks for your continued posts. Have a great 2019.
The Poet

 

[achandicap]

Thanks, Poet. I'll keep posting, and hopefully keep winning. Unbeaten in 2019!

WEDNESDAY
Bournemouth/Watford DRAW +252, 2 units
Southampton +1.5 +103/Chelsea, 1 unit
Burnley +.5 -132/Huddersfield, 1 unit

Record: 1-0, +2.00

 

[achandicap]

I can't believe I'm still unbeaten two days into the new year. My strategy is to be plus-side bets and maybe hit 45 percent. To be 4-0 is outstanding. I've always thought that if I hit 50 percent, I'll win 100 units. That said, I also can't believe I have a 5-star play on the big match today. It seems like a reach, but the numbers say this is a strong side. I guess Liverpool is suffering their first loss of the season today.

THURSDAY
ENGLAND
Manchester City -.5 -102/Liverpool, 5 units

Record: 4-0, +9.07

 

[richporter]

on fire to start the new year great stuff as always

 

[achandicap]

I'm basing these plays on the theory that the bottom of the Premier League is really bad this year.

SATURDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Sheffield Wednesday -.5 +133/Luton Town, 1 unit
Birmingham +1 -105/West Ham, 1 unit
Barnsley +.5 +111/Burnley, 1 unit
Gillingham +.5 +104/Cardiff City, 1 unit
Lincoln +2 +120/Everton, 1 unit
Derby PK -106/Southampton, 2 units
Blackburn +.5 +114/Newcastle, 1 unit
Bristol City -.5 +129/Huddersfield, 1 unit

Record: 5-0, +14.07

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

nice hit

 

[Volcanoeslobby]

I'm basing these plays on the theory that the bottom of the Premier League is really bad this year.

SATURDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Sheffield Wednesday -.5 +133/Luton Town, 1 unit
Birmingham +1 -105/West Ham, 1 unit
Barnsley +.5 +111/Burnley, 1 unit
Gillingham +.5 +104/Cardiff City, 1 unit
Lincoln +2 +120/Everton, 1 unit
Derby PK -106/Southampton, 2 units
Blackburn +.5 +114/Newcastle, 1 unit
Bristol City -.5 +129/Huddersfield, 1 unit

Record: 5-0, +14.07

4 wins
3 loss
1 push

thabks for posting. That Barnsley looked like it was going to draw. Goal at the last min. Anything for tomorrow?

 

[achandicap]

Most importantly, a 1.62 unit profit. Lost a couple tough ones in Gillingham and Barnsley, but really can't complain. FA Cup 3rd Round weekend is always fun.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Oldham +1.5 -102/Fulham, 1 unit
Woking +2 -106/Watford, 1 unit

 

[Volcanoeslobby]

Most importantly, a 1.62 unit profit. Lost a couple tough ones in Gillingham and Barnsley, but really can't complain. FA Cup 3rd Round weekend is always fun.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Oldham +1.5 -102/Fulham, 1 unit
Woking +2 -106/Watford, 1 unit

Can you explain, including vig, how this is 1.62 profit? I’m showing 1 unit . I bet your plays for tomorrow and intend to follow you moving forward. Thanks so much!

 

[PAZ]

FYI

I believe you won the Gillingham play they won 1-0

 

[achandicap]

Volcanoes, here's the breakdown. I appreciate the question because there are so many posters who either never post their units won/lost or fudge their numbers (or just don't know what their doing). The way I bet, I plan on winning less than 50 percent over the course of the year but finish with a unit profit because I make a lot of plus-price plays.

Sheffield Wednesday -.5 +133/Luton Town, 1 unit (L, -100)
Birmingham +1 -105/West Ham, 1 unit (L, -105)
Barnsley +.5 +111/Burnley, 1 unit (L, -100)
Gillingham +.5 +104/Cardiff City, 1 unit (W, +104)
Lincoln +2 +120/Everton, 1 unit (W, +120)
Derby PK -106/Southampton, 2 units (Push)
Blackburn +.5 +114/Newcastle, 1 unit (W, +114)
Bristol City -.5 +129/Huddersfield, 1 unit (W, +129)

That works out to +1.62 units. Add in the Sunday victory (Oldham) and push (Woking) for another unit.

No play today.

Record: 10-3, +16.69

 

[achandicap]

Totally forgot about the return of EPL today. Here's a play for Sunday.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Bournemouth +.5 +121/Everton, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Leicester +.25 -111/Wolves, 2 units
Brighton +1.5 -105/Manchester United, 1 unit
Cardiff +.5 -102/Newcastle, 2 units
Southampton/Everton DRAW +243, 1 unit
Burnley +1 -127/Watford, 1 unit
Arsenal PK +124/Chelsea, 3 units

ITALY
Torino +1 -126/Roma, 1 unit

 

[Volcanoeslobby]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Leicester +.25 -111/Wolves, 2 units
Brighton +1.5 -105/Manchester United, 1 unit
Cardiff +.5 -102/Newcastle, 2 units
Southampton/Everton DRAW +243, 1 unit
Burnley +1 -127/Watford, 1 unit
Arsenal PK +124/Chelsea, 3 units

ITALY
Torino +1 -126/Roma, 1 unit

thanks for posting! Question, burnley is down to +3/4. Would you okay that or no?

 

[richporter]

but fuck was that early one a bad beat.. there has been less draws than what there has been historically you would think some regression to the mean climb back up to around 25% of draws where it generally sits

 

[achandicap]

Volcano: If the line changes, whether to bet depends on the price. In this case, I would have only bet +.75 -107 or better. It was a very weak 1-unit play to begin. Rich: Things always revert to the mean. It may take a while, sometimes a long while, but everything becomes normal eventually.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Tottenham -.5 -137/Fulham, 1 unit

ITALY
Frosinone +1.5 -130/Atalanta, 2 units
Sampdoria +.5 +104/Fiorentina, 1 unit
SPAL/Bologna DRAW +205, 2 units
Cagliari -.5 +103/Empoli, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
LIBERTADORES
La Guaira/Garcilaso U2 +100, 1 unit

Record: 16-9, +17.69

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ITALY
Milan +.5 -140/Napoli, 1 unit

Record: 17-9, +18.69

 

[achandicap]

MONDAY
ITALY
Empoli/Genoa DRAW +243, 2 units

Record: 18-9, +19.69