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guys, higher seeded teams are exactly what they say...higher. when your team gets a lower seed than you expected that means what? just fucking around a bit but you guys are better than that
you go by closing line on trends....always
some sweet 16 trends:
L8 years higher seeds when favored are 46-18 SU (better seeded teams are more likely to win than their lesser seeded counterparts in this round)
#1 seeds favored by 5 or less have covered just 2 of last 13 games (only Florida fits here so, yes, it would be opposing UF)
favs of 5.5+ are exactly 17-17-1 ATS in last 10 years but great SU (just posted this to show that there hasn't been any reason to play or avoid bigger lines)
when two low seeds meet the lower of the two has dominated ATS (only game that qualifies is dayton/stanford)
double digit seeds vs teams seeded 5 or less are terrible SU bets but almost 50/50 ATS (don't expect tenn to win SU)
low totals = unders, high totals = overs (128 and lower = unders, 147 and higher = overs)
i have a bunch of stuff on my other computer for this round when involving teams that made it this far last year....also has a bunch breaking down seeds and teams that come off b2b SUATS wins, etc. the takeaway was that lville should roll, florida is in trouble, mich st will lose, and zona will be in a tight game tonight. also iowa state in a horrible spot due to seeding and covering both games
imo sdsu/zona is lined too low to jump on the under trend btw
you go by closing line on trends....always
some sweet 16 trends:
L8 years higher seeds when favored are 46-18 SU (better seeded teams are more likely to win than their lesser seeded counterparts in this round)
#1 seeds favored by 5 or less have covered just 2 of last 13 games (only Florida fits here so, yes, it would be opposing UF)
favs of 5.5+ are exactly 17-17-1 ATS in last 10 years but great SU (just posted this to show that there hasn't been any reason to play or avoid bigger lines)
when two low seeds meet the lower of the two has dominated ATS (only game that qualifies is dayton/stanford)
double digit seeds vs teams seeded 5 or less are terrible SU bets but almost 50/50 ATS (don't expect tenn to win SU)
low totals = unders, high totals = overs (128 and lower = unders, 147 and higher = overs)
i have a bunch of stuff on my other computer for this round when involving teams that made it this far last year....also has a bunch breaking down seeds and teams that come off b2b SUATS wins, etc. the takeaway was that lville should roll, florida is in trouble, mich st will lose, and zona will be in a tight game tonight. also iowa state in a horrible spot due to seeding and covering both games
imo sdsu/zona is lined too low to jump on the under trend btw
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specific to this round...
#1 seeds that are favored by 7+ playing a team off b2b covers are just 1-7 ATS
same as last round...DD seeds against top seeds never win but do cover about 50% of time. now 1-34 SU last 35 after Tenn loss (of course only 1 of those would pertain to E8 round since the other 34 lost in S16 round)
#6-7 seeds are a combined 0-12 SU L12
#4 seeds have covered 8 of last 9 E8 games
B10 small dogs (<=6) are 8-1 ATS
after the Dayton cover dogs of 3+ in S16/E8 games are 21-6 ATS vs opponent that won previous game by <=7
after 3-2 ATS in S16 dogs of 3+ are 47-22 ATS in S16/E8 vs opponent that has covered at least 50% of games in current season
going into the 2013 tourney blindly betting E8 dogs - 17-10-1 ATS L7 tourneys but the ones that lost SU were just 5-10-1 (12 won outright)
#1 seeds that are favored by 7+ playing a team off b2b covers are just 1-7 ATS
same as last round...DD seeds against top seeds never win but do cover about 50% of time. now 1-34 SU last 35 after Tenn loss (of course only 1 of those would pertain to E8 round since the other 34 lost in S16 round)
#6-7 seeds are a combined 0-12 SU L12
#4 seeds have covered 8 of last 9 E8 games
B10 small dogs (<=6) are 8-1 ATS
after the Dayton cover dogs of 3+ in S16/E8 games are 21-6 ATS vs opponent that won previous game by <=7
after 3-2 ATS in S16 dogs of 3+ are 47-22 ATS in S16/E8 vs opponent that has covered at least 50% of games in current season
going into the 2013 tourney blindly betting E8 dogs - 17-10-1 ATS L7 tourneys but the ones that lost SU were just 5-10-1 (12 won outright)
a) waldos are always a part of the deal but they wouldn't be "official" plays since are only known an hour or two before g1's ... g2's and other umps plays would be official ones. I intend to keep track of positioning which wasn't really don't in the past so we know who to took out for. My umps differ from pops' waldos but will keep his waldos listed on the sheet and tracking their o/u and positions. mine are a bit more related to SG# and day/night splits but most of our umps cross each other and rarely oppose
b) # avg? no idea. no set # in mind... could go back to aug and sept and see what avg # was...that would give you a good idea what to expect. what i was doing LY was posting every possible play, the season YTD of that category, and whether or not it was a suggested play
c) yes, will post pdws every day ... no "rev a" "rev b" ... just the final up as early as possible.
i don't know. just finished a 3-day adventure updating staffs and we have two different masters going now. honestly it's not "my sheet" to post but if DT and/or ZEN are in the giving mood and ask me to post it, then i will. it certainly won't be something posted publicly in an ongoing basis but will be putting the links up for members
btw, will have a new domain name shortly... brandon's recommendation of motherfuckingcunts.com didn't get the nod nor did primetime's slimeballtoutfucks.org but maybe i can create a redirect if i purchase those domain names
btw, more than likely for g1's i'll post ump name on twitter and you guys will know what to do. i won't be posting it like "hey k danley is at HP in the NYY/OAK game so bet the UNDER 8" but will post "HP Danley Oak" ...
of course contrary to public opinion i don't sit home Mon-Sun hitting f5 on sportsoptions or mlb.com so i can't promise i'll catch em all but i'll track as best i can
of course contrary to public opinion i don't sit home Mon-Sun hitting f5 on sportsoptions or mlb.com so i can't promise i'll catch em all but i'll track as best i can
i don't know. just finished a 3-day adventure updating staffs and we have two different masters going now. honestly it's not "my sheet" to post but if DT and/or ZEN are in the giving mood and ask me to post it, then i will. it certainly won't be something posted publicly in an ongoing basis but will be putting the links up for members
btw, will have a new domain name shortly... brandon's recommendation of motherfuckingcunts.com didn't get the nod nor did primetime's slimeballtoutfucks.org but maybe i can create a redirect if i purchase those domain names
haha
i don't know. just finished a 3-day adventure updating staffs and we have two different masters going now. honestly it's not "my sheet" to post but if DT and/or ZEN are in the giving mood and ask me to post it, then i will. it certainly won't be something posted publicly in an ongoing basis but will be putting the links up for members
btw, will have a new domain name shortly... brandon's recommendation of motherfuckingcunts.com didn't get the nod nor did primetime's slimeballtoutfucks.org but maybe i can create a redirect if i purchase those domain names
will the master be posted regularly as well on the site?
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