2014 MLB season thread - PDWS, baseball analytics, waldos, etc

Betsmart · Mar 7, 2014

Where did POPS go?

BRUTUS · Mar 8, 2014

go read the last 5 pages of his thread and he mentions it

rolltide · Mar 9, 2014

p:turnovers + pp:turnovers + ppp:turnovers < 23 and F and WP >= 64 and date > 20140117

SU:	41-4 (10.60, 91.1%)
ATS:	25-19-1 (2.49, 56.8%)	avg line: -8.1
O/U:	18-26-0 (-0.26, 40.9%)	avg total: 138.0

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	H1	H2	Final
Team	25.27	46.1	17.27	73.5	6.64	37.2	4.13	9.40	32.24	16.33	13.18	9.07	34.0	38.8	74.4
Opp	22.96	41.2	12.09	68.9	5.84	32.1	2.69	9.60	29.71	19.29	11.38	11.80	29.1	33.5	63.8

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 09, 2014		Sun	2013	WISC	NEB	away		3&3	-3.0
Mar 09, 2014		Sun	2013	SYR	FSU	away		4&4	-1.5

decent winning teams favored after pretty low turnover games b2b2b .... a couple really low priced away favs considering these teams are 41-4 SU L45. best is home though which are 28-1 SU L29

nsight · Mar 9, 2014

Thanks rolltide for keeping the tradition alive with this thread.

Cheers!

rolltide · Mar 9, 2014

another spot with a short fav in a high % winning situation... home fav coming off b2b away fav losses. (strange but true.... Ohio State was 24/25 FG in the paint last game and didn't hit a single 3-pointer)

Long Beach was in this situation at -10 last night and led by 15 with 1:30 left then allowed 10-2 run to end game and failed to cover

HF and p:AFL and pp:AFL and season > 2008

SU:	43-4 (12.11, 91.5%)
ATS:	30-17-0 (3.51, 63.8%)	avg line: -8.6
O/U:	23-20-0 (5.31, 53.5%)	avg total: 135.9

	FG	Pct	FT	Pct	3s	Pct	BLKS	O-RBND	RBND	Fouls	AST	TOvers	H1	H2	Final
Team	26.67	49.1	16.70	71.2	7.30	40.1	4.33	9.09	32.72	17.70	15.54	11.72	35.9	39.9	77.1
Opp	22.78	40.9	13.37	68.9	6.15	33.0	2.72	8.78	28.15	20.13	11.30	12.67	29.1	35.1	65.0

Date	Link	Day	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Final	Rest	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Mar 09, 2014		Sun	2013	OHIOS	MCHST	home		6&2	-2.5	130.5

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

got a PM asking me to run these. just getting this into the thread...no sense in having me run for just one person to see

should be able to run these today...stay tuned

1. play any HOME TEAM that wons its previous game while scoring 3 runs or less.

2. play on a DOG that won its previous game as a D while allowing 6 hits or less and is in the final game in the series.

3. play on any team its next game after seeing its pitchers allow 5 or more walks provided they came from behind to win the game.(ML & RL)

4. play on any HOME DOG of +110 or greater that has a better record than their opponent.

5. play on any team off a win that scored more runs against the bullpen than it did against the opponents starting pitcher.

6. bet against teams off a win in a game in which they had 10 or more hits and are now at H in the first game of a new series.

7. play on DIVISIONAL DOG off a win its previous game.

8. play on a DOG off a win as a DOG while scoring 3 runs or less.

9. play on AWAY DOG playing an opponent who is off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs.

10. play on a team which lost their previous game as a FAV of -200 or more playing the same non divisional opponent.

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#1: Nothing there for the full query but looks interesting for March/April home dogs... only 1 losing year since 2007 with nearly 133% ROI

H and p:W and p:runs <= 3

SU:	1328-1081 (0.12, 55.1%)	avg line: -130.3 / 117.5	on / against: -$811 / -$11,276	ROI: -0.2% / -4.2%
RL:	794-971 (-0.45, 45.0%)	avg line: 120.6 / -134.5	on / against: -$4,228 / -$4,918	ROI: -2.1% / -1.9%
OU:	1072-1193-139 (0.32, 47.3%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$22,570 / +$655	ROI: -8.6% / +0.2%

HD and p:W and p:runs <= 3 and month <= 4 and season > 2007

SU:	40-25 (0.35, 61.5%)	avg line: 117.8 / -127.8	on / against: +$2,129 / -$2,525	ROI: +32.7% / -30.4%
RL:	48-17 (1.72, 73.8%)	avg line: -138.4 / 124.9	on / against: +$2,685 / -$2,927	ROI: +29.0% / -42.6%
OU:	28-35-2 (-0.08, 44.4%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$925 / +$345	ROI: -13.3% / +4.7%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#2: again, nothing there for full dbase search. looks like it is ok before the all star break then a money burner once August hits... really don't see much at all unless you oppose those teams in august

D and p

W and LGS and po:hits <= 6

SU:	369-482 (-0.59, 43.4%)	avg line: 139.4 / -152.7	on / against: +$1,678 / -$6,168	ROI: +2.0% / -4.7%
RL:	346-248 (0.63, 58.2%)	avg line: -147.6 / 133.9	on / against: -$538 / -$2,954	ROI: -0.6% / -4.8%
OU:	383-431-34 (0.06, 47.1%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$8,665 / +$385	ROI: -9.4% / +0.4%

D and p

W and LGS and po:hits <= 6 and month <= 7

SU:	253-297 (-0.41, 46.0%)	avg line: 136.2 / -148.5	on / against: +$3,954 / -$6,840	ROI: +7.2% / -8.4%
RL:	229-159 (0.71, 59.0%)	avg line: -149.0 / 134.8	on / against: +$176 / -$2,381	ROI: +0.3% / -5.9%
OU:	252-269-27 (0.19, 48.4%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$4,080 / -$1,200	ROI: -6.8% / -2.0%

D and p

W and LGS and po:hits <= 6 and month = 8

SU:	48-99 (-1.28, 32.7%)	avg line: 144.5 / -159.3	on / against: -$3,400 / +$2,776	ROI: -23.1% / +11.9%
RL:	49-56 (-0.08, 46.7%)	avg line: -144.9 / 131.1	on / against: -$2,921 / +$2,047	ROI: -19.1% / +19.2%
OU:	71-72-4 (0.27, 49.7%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$835 / -$745	ROI: -5.2% / -4.6%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

i feel like i'm taking a dbase final exam...

#3 nothing there at all for full dbase. I did both FGS and LGS and nothing there either but 2nd game of series specifically is pretty decent especially after May

po:walks >= 5 and p:W and p:margin >= 2 and po:biggest lead >= 1

SU:	683-601 (0.21, 53.2%)	avg line: -108.9 / -103.8	on / against: +$5,452 / -$12,126	ROI: +3.4% / -7.8%
RL:	449-402 (0.27, 52.8%)	avg line: -105.9 / -108.1	on / against: +$3,564 / -$8,195	ROI: +3.3% / -7.5%
OU:	625-601-52 (0.58, 51.0%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$2,950 / -$8,870	ROI: -2.1% / -6.3%

po:walks >= 5 and p:W and p:margin >= 2 and po:biggest lead >= 1 and SG = 2

SU:	228-183 (0.21, 55.5%)	avg line: -108.1 / -105.0	on / against: +$4,838 / -$7,010	ROI: +9.5% / -13.9%
RL:	149-128 (0.60, 53.8%)	avg line: -109.6 / -105.0	on / against: +$1,305 / -$2,810	ROI: +3.6% / -8.0%
OU:	203-188-17 (0.68, 51.9%)	avg total: 9.0	over / under: -$200 / -$3,695	ROI: -0.4% / -8.2%

po:walks >= 5 and p:W and p:margin >= 2 and po:biggest lead >= 1 and SG = 2 and month > 5

SU:	155-110 (0.47, 58.5%)	avg line: -108.4 / -105.4	on / against: +$5,120 / -$6,637	ROI: +15.4% / -20.3%
RL:	99-80 (0.84, 55.3%)	avg line: -110.0 / -104.0	on / against: +$1,494 / -$2,377	ROI: +6.4% / -10.5%
OU:	133-120-11 (0.76, 52.6%)	avg total: 8.9	over / under: +$235 / -$2,775	ROI: +0.8% / -9.5%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#4: two ways to do this either by winning % or actual number of wins...both shown below and have the identical ROI

REALLY interesting split though between early season and late season. early season playing on the road fav is awesome (when WP and wins really don't count for much) but late season it's a nice spot for home dog (which makes sense since a lot of games have been played...)

those dogs in sept and oct definitely hunt

HD and line >= 110 and WP > o:WP

SU:	368-449 (-0.92, 45.0%)	avg line: 124.3 / -134.5	on / against: +$243 / -$3,968	ROI: +0.3% / -3.6%
RL:	302-228 (0.58, 57.0%)	avg line: -137.9 / 125.1	on / against: -$1,173 / -$1,739	ROI: -1.6% / -3.3%
OU:	382-399-36 (0.26, 48.9%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$5,415 / -$2,715	ROI: -6.0% / -3.0%

HD and line >= 110 and wins > o:wins

SU:	347-422 (-0.94, 45.1%)	avg line: 124.2 / -134.4	on / against: +$260 / -$3,770	ROI: +0.3% / -3.6%
RL:	280-210 (0.51, 57.1%)	avg line: -138.2 / 125.4	on / against: -$938 / -$1,749	ROI: -1.4% / -3.5%
OU:	357-374-38 (0.26, 48.8%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$5,155 / -$2,440	ROI: -6.1% / -2.9%

HD and line >= 110 and wins > o:wins and month <= 5

SU:	134-212 (-1.38, 38.7%)	avg line: 125.7 / -135.9	on / against: -$4,726 / +$3,376	ROI: -13.7% / +7.2%
RL:	121-107 (0.08, 53.1%)	avg line: -137.1 / 124.0	on / against: -$2,436 / +$1,019	ROI: -7.8% / +4.4%
OU:	162-167-17 (0.32, 49.2%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$2,110 / -$1,270	ROI: -5.6% / -3.3%

HD and line >= 110 and wins > o:wins and month >= 9

SU:	64-43 (-0.19, 59.8%)	avg line: 124.2 / -134.4	on / against: +$3,630 / -$4,270	ROI: +33.9% / -29.7%
RL:	45-23 (1.57, 66.2%)	avg line: -139.4 / 126.2	on / against: +$1,247 / -$1,568	ROI: +13.2% / -23.0%
OU:	48-55-4 (0.18, 46.6%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$1,165 / +$160	ROI: -10.0% / +1.3%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#5: I'll have to check if i'm doing this query correctly....i'll come back to this one as it doesn't look right

p:W and po:BPRA > SRA

SU:	5009-2283 (1.79, 68.7%)	avg line: -116.2 / 103.0	on / against: +$276,268 / -$313,030	ROI: +29.2% / -36.2%
RL:	3335-1775 (1.58, 65.3%)	avg line: -105.0 / -109.1	on / against: +$186,531 / -$214,363	ROI: +28.8% / -32.5%
OU:	2270-4684-323 (-1.21, 32.6%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$285,345 / +$218,290	ROI: -35.7% / +27.1%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#6: full dbase playing against those teams in FGS is only +1.1% so nothing there. If you keep that team at home and starting a new series without rest you jump to +6.6% if playing against them and making the home team the favorite pushes it to +8.4% opposing them

so could be something there if you put in some different parameters but it's definitely not going to win you money by backing an unrested home fav in FGS that had 10+ hits to end the previous home series

p:W and p:hits >= 10 and FGS and H

SU:	1138-998 (0.12, 53.3%)	avg line: -134.2 / 121.0	on / against: -$14,360 / +$2,540	ROI: -4.8% / +1.1%
RL:	643-792 (-0.52, 44.8%)	avg line: 120.2 / -134.5	on / against: -$5,176 / -$2,669	ROI: -3.2% / -1.3%
OU:	1023-1001-105 (0.62, 50.5%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$6,845 / -$12,850	ROI: -2.9% / -5.5%

p:HW and p:hits >= 10 and FGS and H and rest = 0

SU:	423-417 (-0.07, 50.4%)	avg line: -130.9 / 117.9	on / against: -$10,896 / +$6,094	ROI: -9.5% / +6.6%
RL:	247-316 (-0.63, 43.9%)	avg line: 117.8 / -131.7	on / against: -$3,598 / +$493	ROI: -5.6% / +0.6%
OU:	376-415-47 (0.44, 47.5%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$7,610 / -$45	ROI: -8.3% / -0.0%

p:HW and p:hits >= 10 and FGS and H and rest = 0 and F

SU:	307-252 (0.47, 54.9%)	avg line: -155.8 / 141.7	on / against: -$8,225 / +$4,685	ROI: -9.4% / +8.4%
RL:	159-221 (-0.92, 41.8%)	avg line: 140.8 / -154.8	on / against: +$139 / -$2,285	ROI: +0.4% / -3.9%
OU:	258-268-32 (0.59, 49.0%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$3,310 / -$1,740	ROI: -5.4% / -2.8%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

7: nothing there full dbase but ok results for April and May and then again in Sept/Oct. loses money in the summer though. think of some parameters to tighten it up as it's promising...

D and p:W and division = o:division

SU:	2125-2641 (-0.53, 44.6%)	avg line: 135.1 / -148.1	on / against: +$15,975 / -$42,047	ROI: +3.4% / -6.0%
RL:	1946-1363 (0.89, 58.8%)	avg line: -150.3 / 136.0	on / against: -$4,849 / -$13,415	ROI: -1.0% / -3.9%
OU:	2202-2333-222 (0.36, 48.6%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$33,890 / -$9,510	ROI: -6.5% / -1.8%

D and p:W and division = o:division and month < 6

SU:	734-827 (-0.40, 47.0%)	avg line: 130.6 / -142.4	on / against: +$11,654 / -$19,927	ROI: +7.5% / -9.0%
RL:	660-424 (1.09, 60.9%)	avg line: -153.6 / 138.4	on / against: +$1,733 / -$8,026	ROI: +1.0% / -7.2%
OU:	718-748-92 (0.31, 49.0%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$9,630 / -$4,090	ROI: -5.6% / -2.4%

D and p:W and division = o:division and month >= 9

SU:	585-715 (-0.50, 45.0%)	avg line: 141.4 / -156.0	on / against: +$8,987 / -$17,177	ROI: +6.9% / -8.5%
RL:	527-358 (0.95, 59.5%)	avg line: -145.8 / 131.5	on / against: +$2,037 / -$6,754	ROI: +1.6% / -7.3%
OU:	605-632-59 (0.41, 48.9%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$7,885 / -$3,505	ROI: -5.6% / -2.4%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#8: overall pretty solid results at +8.1% but a really nice one to play in April historically

i tossed in that the previous win had to be away and that helped a bit but it really jumped up when both games are away and this game is FGS (so they won as away dog in LGS and now are away dog in FGS)

p

W and p:runs <= 3 and D

SU:	568-672 (-0.29, 45.8%)	avg line: 138.4 / -151.6	on / against: +$9,987 / -$17,068	ROI: +8.1% / -9.1%
RL:	566-347 (1.13, 62.0%)	avg line: -148.2 / 135.0	on / against: +$6,859 / -$11,252	ROI: +5.0% / -12.1%
OU:	550-633-57 (0.18, 46.5%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$13,870 / +$2,330	ROI: -10.3% / +1.7%

p

W and p:runs <= 3 and D and month <= 4

SU:	99-94 (0.01, 51.3%)	avg line: 130.6 / -142.4	on / against: +$3,157 / -$4,202	ROI: +16.4% / -15.3%
RL:	101-42 (1.73, 70.6%)	avg line: -155.5 / 140.2	on / against: +$3,966 / -$4,592	ROI: +17.7% / -31.7%
OU:	91-93-9 (0.35, 49.5%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$835 / -$775	ROI: -4.0% / -3.6%

p:ADW and p:runs <= 3 and D

SU:	374-443 (-0.22, 45.8%)	avg line: 141.0 / -154.9	on / against: +$7,491 / -$12,383	ROI: +9.2% / -9.8%
RL:	376-234 (1.21, 61.6%)	avg line: -154.4 / 140.8	on / against: +$2,675 / -$5,679	ROI: +2.8% / -9.1%
OU:	363-408-46 (0.22, 47.1%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: -$8,020 / +$625	ROI: -9.0% / +0.7%

p:ADW and p:runs <= 3 and AD and FGS

SU:	68-66 (0.12, 50.7%)	avg line: 140.6 / -153.1	on / against: +$2,837 / -$3,619	ROI: +21.2% / -17.6%
RL:	58-36 (1.36, 61.7%)	avg line: -159.0 / 144.4	on / against: +$277 / -$747	ROI: +1.8% / -7.8%
OU:	68-56-10 (0.90, 54.8%)	avg total: 8.5	over / under: +$725 / -$1,875	ROI: +5.0% / -12.6%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#9: losing query... FGS isn't horrible but it was in 2013

AD and op:runs >= 6 and op:W

SU:	1942-2896 (-0.74, 40.1%)	avg line: 144.1 / -158.9	on / against: -$17,890 / -$8,692	ROI: -3.7% / -1.1%
RL:	1946-1392 (0.72, 58.3%)	avg line: -152.6 / 138.7	on / against: -$12,309 / -$6,309	ROI: -2.4% / -1.8%
OU:	2292-2322-214 (0.47, 49.7%)	avg total: 8.8	over / under: -$24,900 / -$20,670	ROI: -4.7% / -3.9%

AD and op:runs >= 6 and op:W and FGS

SU:	635-848 (-0.57, 42.8%)	avg line: 141.9 / -156.1	on / against: +$3,090 / -$11,608	ROI: +2.1% / -5.0%
RL:	592-418 (0.89, 58.6%)	avg line: -155.1 / 140.7	on / against: -$4,002 / -$1,369	ROI: -2.5% / -1.3%
OU:	728-679-71 (0.69, 51.7%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$1,495 / -$12,280	ROI: -0.9% / -7.5%

AD and op:runs >= 6 and op:W and FGS and season = 2013

SU:	42-96 (-1.20, 30.4%)	avg line: 143.2 / -156.5	on / against: -$3,873 / +$3,318	ROI: -28.0% / +15.4%
RL:	72-65 (0.32, 52.6%)	avg line: -155.3 / 142.6	on / against: -$2,693 / +$1,855	ROI: -12.6% / +13.4%
OU:	67-63-7 (0.84, 51.5%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$245 / -$1,075	ROI: -1.6% / -7.1%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

#10: slight positive overall ... if team is dog after being -200+ favorite it's a nice play against ... if it's HF it helps a bit (away favs very poor) especially if your winning % is 1-25 points better than opponent

p:FL and p:line <= -200 and division != o:division and not FGS

SU:	179-92 (1.49, 66.1%)	avg line: -190.8 / 168.3	on / against: +$1,368 / -$3,158	ROI: +2.6% / -11.5%
RL:	86-89 (-0.16, 49.1%)	avg line: 113.7 / -125.8	on / against: +$647 / -$1,570	ROI: +3.4% / -6.9%
OU:	122-140-9 (0.35, 46.6%)	avg total: 9.0	over / under: -$3,005 / +$485	ROI: -10.2% / +1.6%

p:FL and p:line <= -200 and division != o:division and not FGS and D

SU:	1-10 (-2.64, 9.1%)	avg line: 122.3 / -132.3	on / against: -$880 / +$870	ROI: -80.0% / +59.8%

p:FL and p:line <= -200 and division != o:division and not FGS and HF

SU:	161-70 (1.75, 69.7%)	avg line: -198.0 / 174.3	on / against: +$2,643 / -$4,228	ROI: +5.8% / -18.3%
RL:	75-79 (-0.10, 48.7%)	avg line: 115.7 / -127.6	on / against: +$605 / -$1,421	ROI: +3.7% / -7.0%
OU:	108-114-9 (0.52, 48.6%)	avg total: 9.0	over / under: -$1,570 / -$585	ROI: -6.3% / -2.3%

p:FL and p:line <= -200 and division != o:division and not FGS and HF and WP - o:WP < 26

SU:	152-65 (1.78, 70.0%)	avg line: -194.6 / 171.6	on / against: +$3,143 / -$4,518	ROI: +7.4% / -20.8%
RL:	72-71 (0.00, 50.3%)	avg line: 117.3 / -129.4	on / against: +$1,215 / -$1,955	ROI: +8.0% / -10.3%
OU:	104-104-9 (0.65, 50.0%)	avg total: 9.0	over / under: -$920 / -$1,145	ROI: -3.9% / -4.7%

rolltide · Mar 10, 2014

i think that's all of them. i'll revisit the bullpen runs one in a bit...but gotta do some real work for a while

BORO · Mar 10, 2014

Thanks for posting all the info you provide. I get confused with a lot of it but it's makes everyone a better capper. Thanks again.

haappyy · Mar 10, 2014

thank you

nsight · Mar 11, 2014

Thanks RT

2014 MLB season thread - PDWS, baseball analytics, waldos, etc

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