Welcome to wizrx's NFL season long thread. (Updated Every Week).
I play 3 plays maximum every week (I only bet plays that I feel Strongly about).
I only have 1 play for this week:
It's a 6.5pt Teaser laying -110 on the Bengals | Giants.
Bengals -1.5
Giants -1.5
-Cuts through 7 and 3 (key numbers) on both teams for +Expected Value.
-Both Teams have home field advantage coming off the loss.
0:0
$0+
Analysis + Write-Ups:
---Browns vs Bengals (Home) (Divisional Game)
Bengals -1.5
I see value in the bengals here where public perception is riding high on the overrated Ravens--with only 1 home game everyone thinks they're going to win the ship now.
The Ravens are a whole new team at home, as we know, home field advantage is big. They went up against the Bengals--mediocre team with some decent components throughout (AJ & BenJarvus). Flacco is a decent QB and has always been that way. He's been quite inconsistent over his career in the NFL, having many ups and downs.
Every year, Flacco scores in the 80 range for QBR.
Expect Flacco to fall flat against a very tough eagles defensive crew in philly coming off a blowout victory and an inflated QBR of 128.
As for the Ravens defense, we know they are an Elite Crew. There Pass D' is a bit overvalued though in my opinion.
Back on topic of the Browns & Bengals:
The browns Defense suffered a big hit losing their best Cornerback, joe haden, out for 4 games due to a suspension. (Guy guarding desean jackson in wk1 vs the eagles completely shutting him down).
On top of that, sheldon Brown, their 2nd best Cornerback has a shouldar injury
which will cause him to underperform. This will surely boost the pass game of the bengals allowing Aj Greene & Dalton to connect well, easily 70+yds and a TD.
The bengals do also have benjarvus green-ellis whom is a decent RB. He showed he can run the ball even against a tough ravens run defense gaining 100+yds that game--impressive.
*Look for a noticeablely weaker Browns Secondary this week.
Something that must not be overlooked is that the Bengals did play on Monday night so they will have less rest and less practice than the Browns.
Really, The only thing that concerns me a bit is trent richardson. However, All the bengals have to do is focus on stopping him and it's over for the browns because
they have absolutely no offense--on top of that, we haven't even seen trent do much in wk1 (Keep in mind it was Vs a Physical Good Eagles Defense though).
Also, Trent will do worse than normal due to weeden being terrible and not keeping drives alive.
It's pretty safe to say Weeden won't do anything as he is the worst starting QB in the NFL--5.1QBR (Ouch.)
I really like the Bengals here for any Survivor Pools as well--great future value.
*Opening Line: Bengals -10
*Weather: Sunny, Nice Temp.
ATS Trends are favoring the Browns here (not by a lot). That is factored into this play as well.[/SIZE]
---Bucs vs Giants (Home)
Giants -1.5
The spot the giants are in is a good one here.
Why? Super Bowl Champions getting reality checked losing game 1--Coming off the loss fired up to go back to their home stadium vs a Bucs team that is decent at best.
Freeman continues to show he is only a little bit better than mediocre--throwing only 138 Yds (AT HOME) vs an "OK" Panthers D'. They have a Decent run game as well, but Bradshaw is just as good.
It's clear NY is the better team all around, QB | DL | WRs | Coaching and the list goes on. Cruz is an incredible WR; Nicks, also solid.
I have a strong feeling Cruz will show up for this game and not drop passes like he did in wk1 (unlike him).
The giants outperform the Bucs on many levels and they have Home Field Advantage--
I do know that the giants tend to play better on the road. However, I don't think that will be a factor in this game.
The Bucs Pass D' is suspect and I know Eli will throw quite well against these guys.
The secondary of the Giants is banged up, yes. However, it is Josh Freeman and he will be Josh Freeman. The giants Pass Rush is incredibly strong (Jason Pierre-Paul--Game-Changer), which makes me very confident that the Bucs will be no match for a good Giants team in a great spot at home.
*Opening Line: Giants -8.5
*Weather: Sunny, Nice Temp.
*No ATS Trends
Bet: $200 at -110 odds
Starting Bankroll: $5000
BOL Everyone (<)<
I play 3 plays maximum every week (I only bet plays that I feel Strongly about).
I only have 1 play for this week:
It's a 6.5pt Teaser laying -110 on the Bengals | Giants.
Bengals -1.5
Giants -1.5
-Cuts through 7 and 3 (key numbers) on both teams for +Expected Value.
-Both Teams have home field advantage coming off the loss.
0:0
$0+
Analysis + Write-Ups:
---Browns vs Bengals (Home) (Divisional Game)
Bengals -1.5
I see value in the bengals here where public perception is riding high on the overrated Ravens--with only 1 home game everyone thinks they're going to win the ship now.
The Ravens are a whole new team at home, as we know, home field advantage is big. They went up against the Bengals--mediocre team with some decent components throughout (AJ & BenJarvus). Flacco is a decent QB and has always been that way. He's been quite inconsistent over his career in the NFL, having many ups and downs.
Every year, Flacco scores in the 80 range for QBR.
Expect Flacco to fall flat against a very tough eagles defensive crew in philly coming off a blowout victory and an inflated QBR of 128.
As for the Ravens defense, we know they are an Elite Crew. There Pass D' is a bit overvalued though in my opinion.
Back on topic of the Browns & Bengals:
The browns Defense suffered a big hit losing their best Cornerback, joe haden, out for 4 games due to a suspension. (Guy guarding desean jackson in wk1 vs the eagles completely shutting him down).
On top of that, sheldon Brown, their 2nd best Cornerback has a shouldar injury
which will cause him to underperform. This will surely boost the pass game of the bengals allowing Aj Greene & Dalton to connect well, easily 70+yds and a TD.
The bengals do also have benjarvus green-ellis whom is a decent RB. He showed he can run the ball even against a tough ravens run defense gaining 100+yds that game--impressive.
*Look for a noticeablely weaker Browns Secondary this week.
Something that must not be overlooked is that the Bengals did play on Monday night so they will have less rest and less practice than the Browns.
Really, The only thing that concerns me a bit is trent richardson. However, All the bengals have to do is focus on stopping him and it's over for the browns because
they have absolutely no offense--on top of that, we haven't even seen trent do much in wk1 (Keep in mind it was Vs a Physical Good Eagles Defense though).
Also, Trent will do worse than normal due to weeden being terrible and not keeping drives alive.
It's pretty safe to say Weeden won't do anything as he is the worst starting QB in the NFL--5.1QBR (Ouch.)
I really like the Bengals here for any Survivor Pools as well--great future value.
*Opening Line: Bengals -10
*Weather: Sunny, Nice Temp.
ATS Trends are favoring the Browns here (not by a lot). That is factored into this play as well.[/SIZE]
---Bucs vs Giants (Home)
Giants -1.5
The spot the giants are in is a good one here.
Why? Super Bowl Champions getting reality checked losing game 1--Coming off the loss fired up to go back to their home stadium vs a Bucs team that is decent at best.
Freeman continues to show he is only a little bit better than mediocre--throwing only 138 Yds (AT HOME) vs an "OK" Panthers D'. They have a Decent run game as well, but Bradshaw is just as good.
It's clear NY is the better team all around, QB | DL | WRs | Coaching and the list goes on. Cruz is an incredible WR; Nicks, also solid.
I have a strong feeling Cruz will show up for this game and not drop passes like he did in wk1 (unlike him).
The giants outperform the Bucs on many levels and they have Home Field Advantage--
I do know that the giants tend to play better on the road. However, I don't think that will be a factor in this game.
The Bucs Pass D' is suspect and I know Eli will throw quite well against these guys.
The secondary of the Giants is banged up, yes. However, it is Josh Freeman and he will be Josh Freeman. The giants Pass Rush is incredibly strong (Jason Pierre-Paul--Game-Changer), which makes me very confident that the Bucs will be no match for a good Giants team in a great spot at home.
*Opening Line: Giants -8.5
*Weather: Sunny, Nice Temp.
*No ATS Trends
Bet: $200 at -110 odds
Starting Bankroll: $5000
BOL Everyone (<)<
