McClain, Berry top rookie IDPs
In an attempt to find the true fantasy relevance of rookie Individual Defensive Players (IDPs), I have tracked how rookies who were drafted in the first two rounds have performed in their first seasons over the last five years. The ultimate goal of this exercise is to find existing trends from this sample set to project how the 2010 IDP rookie class will fare.
I have broken up my findings into the three major IDP categories: LBs, DBs, and DLs. Within each section, I have divided them into the following subsections:
1. Five Year Rookie Performance Chart - This section illustrates the total number of rookies that have finished the year with a certain ranking (Overall No. 1, Top Five, Top 10, Top 15, Top 25, Top 30, and Top 40).
2. Fantasy Impact Analysis - Describes what knowledge and trends can be gained from the Five Year Rookie Performance Chart to use as a resource for 2010 drafting.
3. Rookies to Know - Using the knowledge gained from the two sections above, this section lists which rookies to target in a given category, a little about the rookie as far as why they have a chance to be productive, and the order in which I like them.
So that we all are on the same page, here is the scoring system I used for my analysis for the five-year period:
SOLO TACKLE = 2 points
ASSISTED TACKLE = 1 point
SACK = 3 points
TOUCHDOWN = 6 points
FORCED FUMBLE = 3 points
PASS DEFENDED = 2 points
SAFETY = 3 points
[SIZE=+1]The Linebackers[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart:
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 2
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 4
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie LB since '05 = 5
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 6
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 8
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 10
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 11
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
With the help of DeMeco Ryans in 2006 and Patrick Willis in 2007, rookie linebackers have held the top overall IDP fantasy linebacker spot at year's end only twice over the past five years. Both had offenses that struggled that season, both had defenses that couldn't get off the field, and both started from day one. This provides us with a blueprint for who we should target in 2010.
I also learned from my research that, on average, one rookie usually finishes in the top-five fantasy linebackers, and two usually finish in the top 25 overall. In every scenario, linebackers that were able to get on the field early were the ones that had the most fantasy success. Rolando McClain is the no-brainer of this year's class to be the No. 1 fantasy rookie, but the other spot will largely depend on which rookie linebacker will be able to wrestle away a starting position.
Rookies to Know:
1. Rolando McClain (Oakland Raiders - MLB)
With the departure of Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville, the door is wide open for the top inside linebacker in this year's draft to start immediately. Though he does lack some speed due to his size, McClain's other abilities more than make up for those shortcomings. McClain truly is a franchise middle linebacker, and should be an IDP elite for many years to come. At year's end, a Top-10 IDP finish amongst all linebackers (veterans included) is likely and a Top Five finish is a strong possibility.
2. Daryl Washington (Arizona Cardinals - ILB)
Similar to Kirk Morrison's departure above, Karlos Dansby's exit to Miami has opened up tackle opportunities at inside linebacker opposite Gerald Hayes in Arizona. Though he may began camp playing on passing downs only, Washington should quickly overtake the starting job from Paris Lenon outright. Washington is a bit undersized, but excels with his quickness off the snap and has the speed to make plays outside of the hashmarks, which will help him make more tackles. Once he wins the starting job, Washington should be the second best rookie linebacker for fantasy purposes from that point on.
3. Sean Weatherspoon (Atlanta Falcons - OLB)
Due to his size-speed combination, Weatherspoon is perfectly suited to play the WILL (weakside) linebacker spot in Atlanta. Unfortunately, that spot is currently held by Mike Peterson. Though he will push for Peterson's starting position, Weatherspoon may end up only replacing him on passing downs to begin the season, as Peterson has been brutal in coverage for awhile now. Unless Peterson goes down with an injury for an extended period of time (which is a strong possibility given his health history and age) or he wins the starting job outright, Weatherspoon will not be fantasy relevant. If he is inserted as a starter, however, he immediately becomes a Top-25 performer going forward.
4. Brandon Spikes (New England Patriots - ILB
The dark horse of this group, Spikes' only competition for an inside linebacker spot next to Jerod Mayo is Gary Guyton. With Guyton currently ahead of him on the depth chart, Spikes' fantasy value is limited. However, if he is able to beat out Guyton for the starting spot or Guyton or Mayo go down for an extended period of time, Spikes could potentially explode past Washington and Weatherspoon to become the No. 2 rookie IDP linebacker.
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[SIZE=+1]The Defensive Backs[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart:
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 0
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 0
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie DB since '05 = 1
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 2
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 2
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 3
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 5
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
DB rookies fare poorly when it relates to fantasy production. In the last five years, no defensive back has ever finished the year ranked in the Top Five. Only one -- Darrelle Revis in 2007 -- has finished in the Top 10, and two (Revis in '07 and Louis Delmas in 2009) have finished in the Top 25. You should already know this, but make sure not to depend on a rookie to hold down your number one DB spot. With that said, there are some special cases where gambling on a rookie might be beneficial for your number two spot. In my opinion, this year provides one of those cases.
Rookies to Know:
1. Eric Berry (Kansas City Chiefs - SS)
The setting is right for Berry to have a monster year, as the Chiefs have already declared him their starter at strong safety. The talent is undeniable, he plays through injury, and Berry has demonstrated the ability to tackle at a high level. Barring significant injury, expect Berry to push Darrelle Revis as the best fantasy DB rookie performer in the last five years. Draft him with confidence as your No. 2 defensive back, expect him to finish in the Top 20 of all IDP DBs, and even possibly crack the Top 10 if he starts off well.
2. Earl Thomas (Seattle Seahawks - FS)
Like Berry, Thomas will start immediately for Seattle -- only at free safety. Durability is a concern, as Thomas plays much bigger than his frame, and he'll also line up deeper than Berry as the Seahawks' "centerfield" safety. If Thomas can stay healthy, he should have some fantasy relevance, perhaps flirting with a Top-40 finish among all defensive backs. However, you are probably better off taking a known commodity as your second DB.
3. Joe Haden/T.J. Ward (Cleveland Browns - CB/FS)
Rookie cornerbacks are extremely hard to predict when it comes to fantasy relevance, particularly this early on. Unlike safeties that transition to the NFL smoothly, even elite corners take time to adjust. For this reason, they usually start off in nickel packages until they get comfortable. This year's top CB, Haden is a legitimate shut-down corner type that was good enough to justify a Top 10 draft pick from the Browns. With that said, Pacman Jones found himself in a similar situation with the Titans in 2005 and wasn't able to finish in the Top 40 of all DBs. It seems as though the Browns plan to see how Haden performs this summer before deciding whether he'll start. If he blows them away, he will start immediately opposite of Eric Wright, moving Sheldon Brown to free safety, and giving Haden a legitimate shot to be in the Top 40 DBs. If Haden needs time to develop, Sheldon Brown will take his place at corner, T.J. Ward will line up as a first-team safety opposite Abram Elam, and Haden will play only in nickel sets. My gut says Haden starts off in the nickel and becomes the starter before midseason, making him a Top 40 fantasy DB from that point on, but not for the entire year.
[SIZE=+1]The Defensive Linemen[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
Other than Mathias Kiwanuka in 2006, no rookie DL has cracked the fantasy Top 40 at the end of the season in the last five years. Simply put, avoid rookie DLs in 2010 IDP drafts. Though there are some cases of rookie DLs contributing for fantasy purposes right away (Jevon Kearse with 14.5 sacks in 1999 and Dwight Freeney with 13 sacks in 2002), these are exceptions -- not the rule. Still, I have provided two names below that might find themselves in the "exception" category this year.
Rookies to Know:
1. Derrick Morgan (Tennessee Titans - DE)
Unlike some drafted before him who will find themselves in a limited rotation (Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham), Morgan should start immediately and have a chance to be fantasy relevant in 2010. An absolute steal at No. 16 overall, Morgan has the ability to play both end positions, does everything well, and can use more than just the bull rush technique effectively, which puts him ahead of many of his rookie peers. If there will be a rookie DL who finds himself in the Top 40 at the end of the year, my money is on him.
2. Brandon Graham (Philadelphia Eagles - DE)
With his high motor, overall explosion off the snap, and speed, Graham could become fantasy relevant playing opposite Trent Cole if he is able to beat Darryl Tapp and Juqua Parker for the starting left defensive end position in Philadelphia. A limited rotation with Tapp and Parker is a much more likely scenario, however.
USA Today
In an attempt to find the true fantasy relevance of rookie Individual Defensive Players (IDPs), I have tracked how rookies who were drafted in the first two rounds have performed in their first seasons over the last five years. The ultimate goal of this exercise is to find existing trends from this sample set to project how the 2010 IDP rookie class will fare.
I have broken up my findings into the three major IDP categories: LBs, DBs, and DLs. Within each section, I have divided them into the following subsections:
1. Five Year Rookie Performance Chart - This section illustrates the total number of rookies that have finished the year with a certain ranking (Overall No. 1, Top Five, Top 10, Top 15, Top 25, Top 30, and Top 40).
2. Fantasy Impact Analysis - Describes what knowledge and trends can be gained from the Five Year Rookie Performance Chart to use as a resource for 2010 drafting.
3. Rookies to Know - Using the knowledge gained from the two sections above, this section lists which rookies to target in a given category, a little about the rookie as far as why they have a chance to be productive, and the order in which I like them.
So that we all are on the same page, here is the scoring system I used for my analysis for the five-year period:
SOLO TACKLE = 2 points
ASSISTED TACKLE = 1 point
SACK = 3 points
TOUCHDOWN = 6 points
FORCED FUMBLE = 3 points
PASS DEFENDED = 2 points
SAFETY = 3 points
[SIZE=+1]The Linebackers[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart:
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 2
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 4
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie LB since '05 = 5
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 6
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 8
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 10
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie LB since '05 = 11
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
With the help of DeMeco Ryans in 2006 and Patrick Willis in 2007, rookie linebackers have held the top overall IDP fantasy linebacker spot at year's end only twice over the past five years. Both had offenses that struggled that season, both had defenses that couldn't get off the field, and both started from day one. This provides us with a blueprint for who we should target in 2010.
I also learned from my research that, on average, one rookie usually finishes in the top-five fantasy linebackers, and two usually finish in the top 25 overall. In every scenario, linebackers that were able to get on the field early were the ones that had the most fantasy success. Rolando McClain is the no-brainer of this year's class to be the No. 1 fantasy rookie, but the other spot will largely depend on which rookie linebacker will be able to wrestle away a starting position.
Rookies to Know:
1. Rolando McClain (Oakland Raiders - MLB)
With the departure of Kirk Morrison to Jacksonville, the door is wide open for the top inside linebacker in this year's draft to start immediately. Though he does lack some speed due to his size, McClain's other abilities more than make up for those shortcomings. McClain truly is a franchise middle linebacker, and should be an IDP elite for many years to come. At year's end, a Top-10 IDP finish amongst all linebackers (veterans included) is likely and a Top Five finish is a strong possibility.
2. Daryl Washington (Arizona Cardinals - ILB)
Similar to Kirk Morrison's departure above, Karlos Dansby's exit to Miami has opened up tackle opportunities at inside linebacker opposite Gerald Hayes in Arizona. Though he may began camp playing on passing downs only, Washington should quickly overtake the starting job from Paris Lenon outright. Washington is a bit undersized, but excels with his quickness off the snap and has the speed to make plays outside of the hashmarks, which will help him make more tackles. Once he wins the starting job, Washington should be the second best rookie linebacker for fantasy purposes from that point on.
3. Sean Weatherspoon (Atlanta Falcons - OLB)
Due to his size-speed combination, Weatherspoon is perfectly suited to play the WILL (weakside) linebacker spot in Atlanta. Unfortunately, that spot is currently held by Mike Peterson. Though he will push for Peterson's starting position, Weatherspoon may end up only replacing him on passing downs to begin the season, as Peterson has been brutal in coverage for awhile now. Unless Peterson goes down with an injury for an extended period of time (which is a strong possibility given his health history and age) or he wins the starting job outright, Weatherspoon will not be fantasy relevant. If he is inserted as a starter, however, he immediately becomes a Top-25 performer going forward.
4. Brandon Spikes (New England Patriots - ILB
The dark horse of this group, Spikes' only competition for an inside linebacker spot next to Jerod Mayo is Gary Guyton. With Guyton currently ahead of him on the depth chart, Spikes' fantasy value is limited. However, if he is able to beat out Guyton for the starting spot or Guyton or Mayo go down for an extended period of time, Spikes could potentially explode past Washington and Weatherspoon to become the No. 2 rookie IDP linebacker.
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[SIZE=+1]The Defensive Backs[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart:
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 0
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 0
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie DB since '05 = 1
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 2
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 2
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 3
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie DB since '05 = 5
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
DB rookies fare poorly when it relates to fantasy production. In the last five years, no defensive back has ever finished the year ranked in the Top Five. Only one -- Darrelle Revis in 2007 -- has finished in the Top 10, and two (Revis in '07 and Louis Delmas in 2009) have finished in the Top 25. You should already know this, but make sure not to depend on a rookie to hold down your number one DB spot. With that said, there are some special cases where gambling on a rookie might be beneficial for your number two spot. In my opinion, this year provides one of those cases.
Rookies to Know:
1. Eric Berry (Kansas City Chiefs - SS)
The setting is right for Berry to have a monster year, as the Chiefs have already declared him their starter at strong safety. The talent is undeniable, he plays through injury, and Berry has demonstrated the ability to tackle at a high level. Barring significant injury, expect Berry to push Darrelle Revis as the best fantasy DB rookie performer in the last five years. Draft him with confidence as your No. 2 defensive back, expect him to finish in the Top 20 of all IDP DBs, and even possibly crack the Top 10 if he starts off well.
2. Earl Thomas (Seattle Seahawks - FS)
Like Berry, Thomas will start immediately for Seattle -- only at free safety. Durability is a concern, as Thomas plays much bigger than his frame, and he'll also line up deeper than Berry as the Seahawks' "centerfield" safety. If Thomas can stay healthy, he should have some fantasy relevance, perhaps flirting with a Top-40 finish among all defensive backs. However, you are probably better off taking a known commodity as your second DB.
3. Joe Haden/T.J. Ward (Cleveland Browns - CB/FS)
Rookie cornerbacks are extremely hard to predict when it comes to fantasy relevance, particularly this early on. Unlike safeties that transition to the NFL smoothly, even elite corners take time to adjust. For this reason, they usually start off in nickel packages until they get comfortable. This year's top CB, Haden is a legitimate shut-down corner type that was good enough to justify a Top 10 draft pick from the Browns. With that said, Pacman Jones found himself in a similar situation with the Titans in 2005 and wasn't able to finish in the Top 40 of all DBs. It seems as though the Browns plan to see how Haden performs this summer before deciding whether he'll start. If he blows them away, he will start immediately opposite of Eric Wright, moving Sheldon Brown to free safety, and giving Haden a legitimate shot to be in the Top 40 DBs. If Haden needs time to develop, Sheldon Brown will take his place at corner, T.J. Ward will line up as a first-team safety opposite Abram Elam, and Haden will play only in nickel sets. My gut says Haden starts off in the nickel and becomes the starter before midseason, making him a Top 40 fantasy DB from that point on, but not for the entire year.
[SIZE=+1]The Defensive Linemen[/SIZE]</B>
Five-Year Performance Chart
No. 1 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-5 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-10 overall finished by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-15 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 0
Top-25 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Top-30 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Top-40 overall finishes by a rookie DL since '05 = 1
Fantasy Impact Analysis:
Other than Mathias Kiwanuka in 2006, no rookie DL has cracked the fantasy Top 40 at the end of the season in the last five years. Simply put, avoid rookie DLs in 2010 IDP drafts. Though there are some cases of rookie DLs contributing for fantasy purposes right away (Jevon Kearse with 14.5 sacks in 1999 and Dwight Freeney with 13 sacks in 2002), these are exceptions -- not the rule. Still, I have provided two names below that might find themselves in the "exception" category this year.
Rookies to Know:
1. Derrick Morgan (Tennessee Titans - DE)
Unlike some drafted before him who will find themselves in a limited rotation (Jason Pierre-Paul, Brandon Graham), Morgan should start immediately and have a chance to be fantasy relevant in 2010. An absolute steal at No. 16 overall, Morgan has the ability to play both end positions, does everything well, and can use more than just the bull rush technique effectively, which puts him ahead of many of his rookie peers. If there will be a rookie DL who finds himself in the Top 40 at the end of the year, my money is on him.
2. Brandon Graham (Philadelphia Eagles - DE)
With his high motor, overall explosion off the snap, and speed, Graham could become fantasy relevant playing opposite Trent Cole if he is able to beat Darryl Tapp and Juqua Parker for the starting left defensive end position in Philadelphia. A limited rotation with Tapp and Parker is a much more likely scenario, however.
USA Today
