The 10 wins ATS is not going to go that way with Florida this year. And with the exception of the lopsided score in the swamp last season, no matter what kind of team Kentucky has had in the past, they've never been scared of the Gators and have done well at covering the number or keeping it close to the line. I expect the same this year. Especially when or if I get an overinflated line for this game.
If the books correct the lines this year and have florida minus 30 or 40 in most SEC games they wont. Hopefully that will be the case. I liked 2006. Florida won but never coverd that was great. those days are long over though. The SEC is in a down year too. Florida and OU will put up bigger ass whippings than ever this year.
The only problem I have with that is if you are correct about the final score, Florida DOES NOT cover. Better check your odds before picking "Play-On Games". The line is Florida -27.[/quote]
BD, whenever I made that prediction, there were no lines out. Personally, I don't think -27 will be the line whenever we get closer to this game. I'm not going to factor in all the "Game of the Year" lines that always change before the week of the game. Those lines are always shots in the dark for the books and they hardly ever play out. Sometimes you gamble and end up getting a good line and then sometimes you get screwed.
These previews and "play-on" games are more about getting familiar with teams and looking at good "spots" for situational plays. Last year this line was 7 and Tennessee is likely to be undefeated going into this game. If you think Tennessee is going to cover this game then you should buy it now at -27 because it will likely not be any better than that.
I disagree. I thnk the line at -27 is a deal for Florida Fans. I can see it going up to 30, or maybe more, especially if Tennessee has any problems with aushover Weswtern Kentucky team or a UCLA team that is the perfect example of a 6-6 team. What I meam by that is some think they will go 8-4 (Steele, for one) and some think they will go 4-8. If Tennessee does not win those games conincingly, the line goes up, not down. Frankly I was hoping for 21, but that will not happen. 38 is a low number for Florida in that game, IMO. Maybe that is they ring up at the end of the 3rd quarter.
Georgia doesn't have the guns on offense to beat UF this year. Their defense is soft and aside from Curran their LB corps is suspect (until proven otherwise), and no one is afraid of Evans and Miller or even Reshad Jones in the secondary. They will need guys like Vance Cuff to step up big time.
Florida will rape Tennessee and make them like it. If the Vols couldn't score 13pts last year, I'm not sure why they will this year - on the road, no QB, better UF D, pissed off Urban Meyer. I also see no reason why UF can't go 10+ ATS again this year. The defense is going to be better than last year when you account for the incredible depth. The loss of a player here or there can be sustained.
The offense doesn't need Harvin as they proved in the SECCG last year. Bama's D is/was very good and UF still scored 31pts. Now that teams can't focus on Harvin, it will make the O a little more unpredictable.
LSU will be interesting, but don't forget that UF had a huge lead there 2 years ago sporting the worst UF defense in a generation. UF also has the week off before going to BR while the Tigers entertain UGA the week prior. Sets up well for UF, IMO as does their whole schedule.
Florida will rape Tennessee and make them like it. If the Vols couldn't score 13pts last year, I'm not sure why they will this year - on the road, no QB, better UF D, pissed off Urban Meyer. I also see no reason why UF can't go 10+ ATS again this year. The defense is going to be better than last year when you account for the incredible depth. The loss of a player here or there can be sustained.
The offense doesn't need Harvin as they proved in the SECCG last year. Bama's D is/was very good and UF still scored 31pts. Now that teams can't focus on Harvin, it will make the O a little more unpredictable.
LSU will be interesting, but don't forget that UF had a huge lead there 2 years ago sporting the worst UF defense in a generation. UF also has the week off before going to BR while the Tigers entertain UGA the week prior. Sets up well for UF, IMO as does their whole schedule.
Florida is -27 against Tennessee, and -11 against LSU. The Tennessee line is perfectly understandable. The LSU early line deserves some looking into. If LSU goes down at Georgia, they will come in flat against Florida. Last year, LSU's defense gave up 103 points against Florida and Georgia. Ouch!!!
Finally someone in here knows what there talking about. Only if the books can correct the lines will they not cover most games, but I don't think they will at least till they cover whatever bs line they get vs. Tennessee. If they haven't got the picture now. They will get it by week 4.
Also about this Georgia team. how could any buddy ever pick them to win the SEC east. They lose every key player from last year and a couple more. Yea they return some people, but they better be around a 27 28 point underdog or more to florida or florida will cove that game too.
Obviously you think that Florida is the greatest thing to happen to college football. They are not. Florida is -16 against Georgia. They have only been favored by more once in the past 10 years, when they were -19 in 2001. They did not cover. Florida is -27 against Tennessee. The last time Florida was anywheres near that line was in 2001. They were -19 1/2 then. The game was at Florida. Tennessee beat them straight up.
Now I am not saying that Florida will not win, or cover either of those games, but before you go wagering the house and kids, you had better consider what has happened in the past, and the fact that Florida will be the biggest target in the NCAA. It does not help that Urban Meyer is kind of an ass. I am on record as predicting that Florida DOES NOT win the NC this year. I like Texas.
Tony....I hope you are taking heed on what these other posters are telling you. Like I've said many times on here, and will probably state many more times to posters just showing up, you very seldom get duplicate seasons in college football in which a team beats the spread (8 wins or more ATS) two years in a row. On average, you'll get about one repeater a season. And this is out of 120 teams.. Things change drastically in college football from year to year, even when it looks like it's going to be business as usual for a particualr team. Florida has two things working against them this season. The lines won't be as favorable for them this year. They never are for the number one team. And the teams around them will change. And many on their schedule will be better. Personally, I thought that overall the SEC was down last season. Especially since many of the teams were breaking in new QB's and dealing with coaches that were on their way out the door (Fulmer, Tuberville, Croom). And coaches that were in only their first or second year (Petrino, Nutt, Saban). These coaches will be much better intrenched this season, and expectations for them will be higher. I see the SEC overall as being a stronger conference this year, which will not only make it harder for Florida to cover ATS, but also harder to win SU. I still think the Gators have a good chance to win their conference and make it to the BCS title game. But winning and covering are two different animals. In 2007 national champs LSU were only 3-8-1 ATS. Mainly because they were preseason number 1 and expectations were huge for that team. I see a lot of similarities with the Gators this season.
IMO, all you have to do is look at the talent on the UT team now vs then. It's not even close. They just don't have it this year. No QB, no RB, no WRs, mediocre OL, sparse amounts of talent on D and no depth anywhere. No throw in a healthy dose of motivation for the Gators to whip Lame's ass and this game won't even be close. I'd take UF -35 assuming no injuries, etc.
Georgia is much better offensively than UT, although I'll be curious to see how well they can run the ball. Im not enamored with Caleb King so we'll see who actually totes the rocks for the Dogs. Their WR crew is getting more and more talented, and Cox is capable, but he has limitations that will in turn limit the offense. The defense is their real problem. There are names everywhere and performance almost nowhere. Their secondary is a mess and will get exploited often IMO. Defense will be why UF will beat UGA IMO. UF has it and UGA doesn't. Maybe UGA's D will show up, but they'll have to show me. It was really bad last year compared to previous efforts. LSU was worse, though I expect Chavis can do something there to improve the mess we saw last year.
Lots of good points. I agree with tougher lines, but one think to remember is that UF didn't just cover last year, they blew apart the lines all year. Will it happen this year? We'll have to see what the lines are like, but just looking at how nasty the defense should be, it's certainly possible just because other teams won't score much against UF this year.
I think another thing to look at with trying to repeat is a team trying to duplicate the instensity level of last season, when after the Gators lost to Ole Miss early on and then went on a Tim Tebow mission after his now famous "we will overcome" speech. It's very hard to keep this level of play up for two years in a row. Especially in the tough SEC. We'll see how it goes with Florida. Like I said, I can still see them winning the SEC. But I can also see them going just 7-5 or 6-6 ATS.
If you want to look at the team that has the best chance to repeat a good ATS season, look at Texas, who had 9 ATS wins last season. This is a team that will be on a mission this year after getting passed over for the BCS title game. It wouldn't surprise me that with the way the BCS operates, combined with the Longhorns easy schedule, that Mack Brown will poor it on the sisters of the poor and make sure he gets a cover in every game. Anything to win those extra brownie points with the polls/BCS. I also look for the lines to be higher for Texas too this year. But the difference between Texas and Florida will be that the Horns feel like they have a little more to prove. Emotion means a lot in college football. If Urban Meyer/Tebow can keep the Gators intensity up for the whole season like last year, more power to them. But I have my doubts they can.
Normally, I would agree with this point, but Tebow and Spikes didn't come back to be runners-up. They came back to do something that has never been done at UF (14-0) and to win a 3rd title in 4 years. I'm not sure that's ever been done either. The offense for example, has to "overcome" the loss of Percy Harvin. That in and of itself will help them keep focus as some younger WRs need to step up. On defense, there are a lot of talented young players that want to play and they will push the starters> Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part. Looking around the SEC - particularly the East, they are not that great again this year. There's a 4 game stretch in the middle of the season, that if UF gets through it unscathed, they are on their way. They are at LSU, Arky, @MSU, and UGA @JAX. UF is off the week before LSU. The tricky game will be Arky. I'm not familiar with them as a team just yet, so I don't know what their OL is like, but with Mallett and Smith along with quite a few very capable WRs, they will be an interesting team to watch. Not sure about their defense, but as of right now, if the line is over say 13pts, I'll be on Arky. People won't think much of MSU, but UFs history in the state of MS is downright terrible. That's another game that may not cover. That just leaves UGA, and UF will be ready to play that game. I don't think anyone is too worried about Vandy, UK, the Cocks, and certainly not FSU on Senior Day in Gainesville. That may be the toughest UF ticket of the year.
If you are looking to fade Florida this year, you may want to consider this. Florida is 0-7 after they play Tennessee, and 1-7 as a 12+ conference away favorite after a S/U win. Florida goes to Kentucky the week after the Tennessee game. It will be their first away game, and an obvious let down game after the Tennessee game. Now I seriously doubt that Kentucky can beat them, or even give them much of a game, but how many points will Kentucky get? 25? 30? More? Just a little something to think about.
