***2 Game RL Chasers***

[Mistermj]

any numbers on the record of that system you mentioned?

it makes perfect sense, a fav at home, losing the 1st game of the series, has all the chances to win 1 of the 2 games coming up.

think we should implement those kind of plays, but its obviously your call MJ. thank you for sharing this information.

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="175" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" nowrap="nowrap">htdykid
StatFox Hall of Famer


Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 2168

</td> <td valign="top" width="100%" bgcolor="#f6f6f6">First Game Fave Loser RL Chase All,

I know its been too long since I posted. New job blocks Statfox and I am just too exhausted at the end of a long day to post. But, its football time and I figured I would share a few nuggets.

The RL Chase hit at 77% for the year. The average line was +127.
The straight up games of the chase hit at 83%-the average line was -141.

By my unofficial count, it was up 61 units total, a hair better than last years 53 units.

Today-
Chicago, Yankees and Mets(ppd)

Good luck to everyone!
Da Kid
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09-06-08 11:18 AM</td> <td valign="center" width="100%" bgcolor="#f6f6f6" height="16"> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr valign="bottom"> <td>

</td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Ed</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
The poor guy doesn't have much time to post it anymore...I've followed along and I'm pretty sure he is legit...

This year he pops in and updates the record once in a while. There used to be some guy that ran it for him last year...so again...I know it's been checked and played by other people over there...I'm pretty sure it's not B.S but unfortunately there isn't full documentation.

If you do a search on his name...you can pull up his past posts and really sift through it for a couple of years when he did post the plays.

MJ

 

[TheSaint]

thanks, will check it out when I have the time to do it, and post some records in your thread, if its not a problem.

these are the parameters that he posted for the chase:

Play all RLs of faves who are -120 for a series if they lose game 1
I added filters to further strengthen the return:
Game 2 o/u is 8 or less
UD starter ERA is over 5.3

 

[Mistermj]

Just to make it easier for anyone to look into this themselves.

It's at the Fox Den forum.

Here is the search link for the poster I am talking about:
http://forums.statfox.com/forum/search.php?action=showresults&searchid=294840&sortby=&sortorder=

You might have to weed through the search results for just the posts on this system....there are multiple pages to sift through to go back in time.

Look for:

First Game Fave Loser RL Chase

Really have to run....but check it out...it's kick ass.

 

[caifora70]

The White Sox go to game 2...a nice Run Line if we can hit it.

KC @ Chicago White Sox -1.5 +165 Game 2 for 2 units.

Good luck!

Tuesday starts

None under the system rules.

But FYI...Tampa qualifies on stats but gets bumped for too high of a Run Line -1.5 -130. (Perhaps August rules could also loosen the Run Lines to accommodate late season...or thats just a bad idea...play at your own risk...I won't count it. Discussion is welcome.)

Another interesting angle that I like.

Minnesota @ Texas almost qualified on Monday. The point is that Texas qualifies based on stats...but they lost game 1 last night.

This now fits very nicely into the other Run Line system that I always talk about...3 years of tracking shows it to be a robust system.

When a team is favored for all 3 games of the series...but loses the first game...chase them on the Run Line for the next 2 games...it has a stellar record 3 years running.

The Rangers have a -1.5 +115 Run Line today...and looking at the probable pitching for tomorrow shows an ERA advantage with the Texas starter vs. Minnesota's starter....so....I assume they will be a fave tomorrow as well.

I think it's a nice play...that fits really well into our system...and I have good reason to believe these will be successful based on watching the other systems success for 3 seasons including this one.

Why not roll this into our system? The other thing I like about it is we are chasing a home team not to get swept...it just doesn't happen that often...and it "should" in theory happen less to good teams.

I know this is a lot of information to digest...but if you work your way through this post a few times I think it all makes sense.

Again discussion is welcome...but I do need to run. I'll get back probably much later tonight.

you see misterjm, this is one exemple how does this systeme dont work at all. wsox is losing in top 9...........is difficult to win this game. nothing again you man, maybe when i tail you iam not lucky, but i lost money when i follow you. maybe you have to do some correction to your system computer.

:grandmais

 

[dyosh808]

Hey guys since I understand this system is still a work in progress just thought I'd throw something out there. If I'm not mistaken, since I started following the system, it seems in a fair amount of the losses I've sustained the favorite won the opening game of the series but did not cover the run-line. (i'm sure at least 2-3) Perhaps at that point cancel the series and take the 1 unit loss? To be honest I'm not sure how many times the favorite won by 1 run the opening game and then covered for us the next game, but based on memory doesn't seem that often. If anyone has detailed history of the system perhaps you can check or if there is a place to find it I'd be willing to do it.

I think if those games were eliminated along with the games where we had double underdogs for the first 2 games we would have cut the number of losses significantly.

Just thought I'd throw that out there I could be totally off base but that's what the forum is for right? to bounce ideas.

 

[dyosh808]

I'm going through the thread now to check on this theory

 

[BIGWave]

It's been a REAL sh*tty run!!!

 

[roc18]

Ouch another series loss.

 

[caifora70]

you see misterjm, this is one exemple how does this systeme dont work at all. wsox is losing in top 9...........is difficult to win this game. nothing again you man, maybe when i tail you iam not lucky, but i lost money when i follow you. maybe you have to do some correction to your system computer.

:grandmais

final game kc won.........

^<<^

 

[dyosh808]

I'm going through the thread now to check on this theory

Ok after looking back at all the plays, in 4 instances a team has won the first game but lost the runline and comeback to win us the set in the second game. In 3 instances a team has won the first game but lost the runline then also lost the game or won the game by only 1 in the second game of the set.

So basically chasing teams that win the first game by 1 on the second part of the set has proven, so far to be profitable. Perhaps good to keep on eye on this angle though.

Let's get um next set guys.

 

[caifora70]

you see misterjm, this is one exemple how does this systeme dont work at all. wsox is losing in top 9...........is difficult to win this game. nothing again you man, maybe when i tail you iam not lucky, but i lost money when i follow you. maybe you have to do some correction to your system computer.

:grandmais

final result.......wsox lose the game.............

^<<^

 

[TraderMike]

final result.......wsox lose the game.............

^<<^

This system is still up units. Saying that it doesn't work at all is just plain incorrect.

 

[caifora70]

This system is still up units. Saying that it doesn't work at all is just plain incorrect.

as far as i know had never work in a long time.............i lose my bank roll..

^<<^

 

[1sob]

too much whiners here, its a profitable system that mj plays.. If you guys cant handle losing you guys shouldn't be betting

 

[JoeBlow]

What site gives you odds for games 3 day in advance?

 

[MaryPoopins]

as far as i know had never work in a long time.............i lose my bank roll..

^<<^

I think we're all aware there's a chance we can lose our money. Like the previous poster said stop whining, that's betting for ya. I'm thankful MJ does what he does. Oh, and learn some grammar, hehehe.

Oh, p.s. If you actually manage your bankroll correctly, even when there's a bad run you shouldn't lose all your money. . .

 

[CTP]

Ok after looking back at all the plays, in 4 instances a team has won the first game but lost the runline and comeback to win us the set in the second game. In 3 instances a team has won the first game but lost the runline then also lost the game or won the game by only 1 in the second game of the set.

So basically chasing teams that win the first game by 1 on the second part of the set has proven, so far to be profitable. Perhaps good to keep on eye on this angle though.

Let's get um next set guys.

Not complaining just pointing. To use simple math and I know this is not right as typical run lines produce more than 1 unit of profit. In the 4 instances of which won the second game you get 4 units of profit but in the 3 that lost you lose 9 as 1 in the first game and 2 in the second so not profitable. Way easier to look at the past then predict the future.

 

[Mistermj]

Blah....the White Sox can't get it done -3.15 units...we've been on the skids for roughly all of August.

Let's take a hard look at the record.

Overall series 39-10 +19.31 Units

This system started exactly two months ago on June 19...after some large changes were made to it from the previous... similar but different system.

On the bright side...lets get real...+19.31 units in two months of baseball is fantastic. We had a high water mark around +30 units. If you jumped on at that point I understand the frustration...but I can't control that.

I do the work and provide the picks in good faith...that's all I can do. Educated bettors appreciate it...some don't. Not my problem.

Having said all that...I'm ready to stop the bleeding and stop the system.

I've accomplished what I've wanted to accomplish...we have the framework for a system to run next year. Who knows how many units we could have won in April, May and half of June?

It might be that late season (August) is just the time to get out...I wouldn't doubt it...or it could just be a bad streak. Binomial distribution teaches us it's always quite possible to have a large streak just flipping a coin.

This also means we could have just had a lucky streak to win the units we won. Who knows?

I love the system...it's a great way to have fun with baseball...when it wins anyway...I'm optimistic we can have a blast with this next year...and we've learned a lot and laid all the groundwork for that. Building systems is hard work.

On a personal note...my account has grown 50% in the last two months and I'm going to pull that money out and bank it. Where else can I get a 50% return in two months?...and be entertained in the process.

If you jumped on late...and got hurt...learn from it. Money management is preached for a reason.

I still need to double check the record and will post the results here...at some point in time. I'm also hoping CTP can help me break it down and provide some stats to further analyze things. I'll post whatever we come up with. But it might be a while.

Feel free to continue a discussion here...this is why I like one thread. All the info is here...and I can refer to it in the future.

Thanks for joining in...it's too bad it had to end on a down note...but if this was easy you wouldn't be here in the first place.

Gaining 19 units is hard...I challenge anyone to cook up a system in any sport and try to do it in public.

But if you do...share it with us. :toast:

 

[walnut5225]

you are such a credit to this forum ---- thank you!

 

[TraderMike]

Much appreciated, MJ.

:toast: