Wake Forest -3 over Duke
We loves us some Wake for so many reasons. Let’s tick off two. Wake beats Duke when it is good and when it is bad, having won 11 in a row against the Blue Devils. Heck, they even beat Duke when Jim Caldwell was coaching Wake. While they are only 5-5 ATS in their last ten against Duke, a three point spread is almost a tossup. Also, we pull out some of our high school geometry here. Wake beat Florida State -> the Seminoles drilled Duke at Duke = Wake beats Duke. We like WAKE-3.
Louisiana-Lafayette - 3 over Western Kentucky
You’ve go to roll with the hot hand when they have won six in a row and are playing a weaker error prone foe. This one is a case of too much respect for the home team. In this case, Western Kentucky has yet to win at home this season. In fact Western Kentucky has now won at home since early in the 2008 season when they beat an FCS team. Meanwhile, the RCs have covered their last nine on the road. The combination of these makes our choice LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE -3.
New Mexico State + 21 over Hawaii
Hawaii has absolutely owned this series. And why wouldn’t they? New Mexico State has been putrid in years past. This is a spread that is influenced by pure numbers. Hawaii is 4-1-1 ATS in this series. One stat that scares us is that when Hawaii returns home after a road game, it has covered its last eight spreads – it fits with the theme that Hawaii is solid ATS at the Aloha Bowl. Yet, you have to ask the serious question whether one 3-3 team can be a 21 point favorite against another 3-3 team when the two teams have largely played the same caliber of opposition. One stat that gives us comfort is that the Aggies have covered all three on the road this year with a 2-1 SU record. This means that the spread is not justified. Our pick is NEW MEXICO STATE +21.
All of our picks and analysis for the week (9 CFB games) are available at our new website, www.freepointspreads.com. We are just starting up and building a name for ourselves so please spread the word.
We loves us some Wake for so many reasons. Let’s tick off two. Wake beats Duke when it is good and when it is bad, having won 11 in a row against the Blue Devils. Heck, they even beat Duke when Jim Caldwell was coaching Wake. While they are only 5-5 ATS in their last ten against Duke, a three point spread is almost a tossup. Also, we pull out some of our high school geometry here. Wake beat Florida State -> the Seminoles drilled Duke at Duke = Wake beats Duke. We like WAKE-3.
Louisiana-Lafayette - 3 over Western Kentucky
You’ve go to roll with the hot hand when they have won six in a row and are playing a weaker error prone foe. This one is a case of too much respect for the home team. In this case, Western Kentucky has yet to win at home this season. In fact Western Kentucky has now won at home since early in the 2008 season when they beat an FCS team. Meanwhile, the RCs have covered their last nine on the road. The combination of these makes our choice LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE -3.
New Mexico State + 21 over Hawaii
Hawaii has absolutely owned this series. And why wouldn’t they? New Mexico State has been putrid in years past. This is a spread that is influenced by pure numbers. Hawaii is 4-1-1 ATS in this series. One stat that scares us is that when Hawaii returns home after a road game, it has covered its last eight spreads – it fits with the theme that Hawaii is solid ATS at the Aloha Bowl. Yet, you have to ask the serious question whether one 3-3 team can be a 21 point favorite against another 3-3 team when the two teams have largely played the same caliber of opposition. One stat that gives us comfort is that the Aggies have covered all three on the road this year with a 2-1 SU record. This means that the spread is not justified. Our pick is NEW MEXICO STATE +21.
All of our picks and analysis for the week (9 CFB games) are available at our new website, www.freepointspreads.com. We are just starting up and building a name for ourselves so please spread the word.
