10/10 Action

winkyduck · Oct 10, 2004

Saints -3: i LOVE betting against rookie QBs making their first NFL start - especially on the road. ok - chris simms is NOT a rookie - this is his 2nd year - i know that. but in terms of playing experience - he is a rookie (ditto for carson palmer). even though simms is playing the erratic saints who play defense as "well" as the KC Chefs - i can see Simms really struggling here - since the saints now have a full week to prepare for him. betting on the saints at home is scary - but i'll try it here

Chargers +125 M/L: whenever the dog is getting less than 3 - if i am gonna play them i do it on the M/L figuring the dog won't cash (for the most part) unless they win SU - so why not take the extra money with them. so i will. the jags really aren't that good (they will miss the playoffs - and really not even come close) and making the cross country trip to play at SD is not going to help. don't confuse the chargers with the pats - but they are good enough to win this game - and they will.

Broncos -3 (First 1/2): BEST BET on Sunday's Card. right now the panthers are a mess and no worse place for f****d up teams to go than denver (well 2nd worst - foxboro is the worst). take a look at denver bronco's games - they jump out on the other team fast. they tend to let up later on - which is why i only care here about the first 30 minutes. at worst this play is a push - but i see it getting to the window with room to spare. Denver by 7 in the first 1/2 meaning this one cashes.

mhk · Oct 10, 2004

Winky, you are dead on in your assesment of the dogs less than three, always play the ml, you will come out ahead long term, imo, no doubt about it.. Have been preaching that for years here.. You ever buy off of the three (when its -3)?? Just wondering..

winkyduck · Oct 11, 2004

1-1-1 day but +.15 units so a winning day

as for buying off 3 i don't because the juice is so much larger than any other number - if i wanna buy the line to -2.5 or +3.5 i would have to lay -130 and i don't want to do that.

however, if the line is -3 +100 or +3 +100 and i wanna buy down to 2.5 or up to 3.5 i might do it then because i see it as "only" laying 10-cents instead of 20.

as for the "dogs under +3" part - it only makes sense. the number of times you will lose that bet will be small compared to the number of times you will win it - and in the long run - you will win a lot more money playing the M/L on dogs +2.5 or less.

mhk · Oct 11, 2004

In a round about way I was getting to the price of buying off of -3. Its not always steep, if I like the side, thats when i'll buy. Not often, but it happens..