'09 Dawoofdaddy college football action & discussion thread

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Triple digit silver kook
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russ

the cmu ga game was 56-17 and yes they completely crushed cmu along both lines. i had cmu + nearly 4td and lost regardless.

while zona isnt ga, the heat will be a factor and thats why i havent bet cmu with a line under 2td.

i do think cmu will move the ball on uga and zona especially doesnt have nearly as stong a defense, running game, or a #1 draft choice nfl qb that ga had last season.

i dont think the zona dl size is that great so the top disadvantage for cmu is their lack of DL size vs zona OL.

if lefevour gets time and i think he will, cmu will score 24+ in this game.

jake, its a shot-in-the-dark, but i did bet a very small future play on minny to win b10 at +3000
 

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by far... the best game you and i have ever attended... maybe our rockets can beat colorado?! <><>

n502694123_817661_436.jpg
 

Triple digit silver kook
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Welcome home h10.

Yes, that was a great game and with 3 potential big boys to play this season, hoping if they dont beat purdue they beat colorado n da glass bizowl.

:103631605
 

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i'm hopping on the san jose st train the following week when they get utah at home. should see a good spread here woofy.
 

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Played a few others at greek and betphoenix yesterday, but at different lines so not posting them here as lines are gone and they are smaller plays.

Here is the large stuff Ive bet this morning at cris/bookmaker..."where the line originates". :):):):):):):):):):)

all plays below played at cris/bookmaker.com. will be more later today and this week.



5* NC ST -3
5* UTAH ST +22.5
5* N. TEXAS +20
5* OHIO U +5 (WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED).
5* MINNY -5.5
5* ILLINOIS -6
8* SAN JOSE +36
4* IDAHO +6
4* MTSU +21
6* UAB -3 -120

edit***ADD

4* TEX AM -12.5

Illinois-6. What happened to the opportunity to jump on it when it was -2 1/2 and -3? Obviously we loaded up on the Illini, and as long as you can give less than 7, you should be good.
Utah State -22 1/2is way too much of a risk. I do not like wagering on losers who are on the road, and have covered once in the past 6 years, especially when they are trying a new offense. Pass.

North Texas +20. No offense but I have NEVER seen this line that high. If you got it, more power to you. You got a very good price on a very poor team. They do return some talent, but it is not very good. Ball State is no bargain package either. I think you may have a winner here but it is not worth the risk to us. Pass.

Middle Tennessee -21. We like Middle Tennessee in this situation. The fact that they return 17 starters certainly does not hurt them, though they must find a new QB. There is no question that Clemson has much better overall talent, but what we like is the fact that Clemson has to go to Ga. Tech 5 days after this game, and are certainly not going to risk any injuries if this game gets out of hand. A 17 point lead in the 4th Quarter would be "out of hand" at that point. We also like MTSU's 6-1 record ATS as dogs in Game 1, not to mention their 5-1 record as a non-con dog of less than 28. This is definately on our radar, as we have not made all of our picks yet. Good wager here.

Ohio +5. If their offense can open it up, and IF they can come up with something that resembles a defense, they may be able to win more than 4 games. Too many "if's" here. Once again, UConn is no bargain package, but they do have a very good trio of LB's which is about the best thing you can say for either one of these teams. Pass.

Minnesota -5 1/2. Minny will do a lot of running, and and some speed at defense. Syracuse should be a bit more effective on offense, but they need a lot more. Our number on this game was -8, so it was not quite enough to pull the trigger, but this should be a solkid wager.

San Jose +36. Bet against USC at your own peril. They convered both of their games that they were favored by over 35 last year. I do not wager on USC games, so this is a pass for me.


Idaho +6. Again, this is a game that we almost pulled the trigger on, but we want 7 1/2 or more. While Idaho does return some talent in the skilled positions, their defense is still terrible, and that is being kind. New Mexico State does not have the talent to matchup to Idaho, but we are not talking much here, and Idaho has not been a coering machine on the road,going 4-8 in the past two years. Pass, for now.

UAB -3. Everyone loves the fact that UAB has 11 starters back on offense. Unfortunately, none of that talent is very good. UAB's defense wasnot ery good either, but improved near the end of the season last year. Rice lost a trememdous amount on offense, and returns 8 starters on another poor defense. Their biggest advantage is in the coaching department. This game opened up at even, and that is what it should be played at. Pass.

I am glad to see that we have not bumped heads on any wager. That tells me that our computer is doing it's job. While we certainly will not agree on every wager, because my group wagers a lot more money on a lot less games, it is important for us to compare notes with other bettors who are suppose to know what they are doing, and you seem to fit that model, according to what some have said in here. Good Luck in your wagering sir.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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North Texas +20. No offense but I have NEVER seen this line that high. If you got it, more power to you. You got a very good price on a very poor team. They do return some talent, but it is not very good. Ball State is no bargain package either. I think you may have a winner here but it is not worth the risk to us. Pass.

According to bellyputter, who was around when cris/bookmaker opened this morning posted ball state was -23, so not only was +20 available, +23 apparently was available and whatever #'s they had before I got around to betting it at +20.

I appreciate the feedback and good luck with your wagers.



08-10-2009, 11:37 AM
bellyputter
RX Senior

CRIS Is Finally Up
You can't call them a clone shop! Ball St -23 Okla -25 Ill -3 UAB -2.5 Minny -3.5 A&M -7 Fla St -6.5 LSU -18

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=699138
 

Triple digit silver kook
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ADDING: all played @ bm

5* UL Monroe +40.5
3* Wisc -15
3* Stanford -15

edit

3* San Diego St +18


 

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I hate to beat a dead horse here, but I want to address a few more things mentioned on the CMU/Arizona game.

1.) Don't overvalue a big defensive line vs. a smaller offensive line. There is something to be said for speed and quickness with any player. Size doesn't always matter (all of us men should know that, lol). Navy and Air Force has been proving this fact for years as they are usually perennially undersized on the line, but their quickness and schemes allow them to still be competitive with their opponents.

2.) I think the only advantage CMU has over Arizona is a returning and experienced QB. CMU has some inexperience on their offensive line and that will be a big concern playing against Arizona's experienced and aggressive defensive line.

3.) Russ is right on Arizona in this game and I think we are geting tremendous value on Arizona because everyone seems to be overvaluing CMU and undervaluing Arizona here. I guarantee you that if CMU stacks the box for the run then they are going to get burned because Arizona is running a Texas Tech offensive system and it is designed to get several open receivers available for passes. You have to defend the entire offense, not just one phase of it. Scott would not be QBing if he couldn't throw and complete a pass under normal circumstances. I don't look for him to receive a lot of defensive pressure because CMU is not known for that.

I realize that this is liable to fall on some deaf ears because we all confessed that Arizona is not a top tier PAC 10 team, but that doesn't mean they can't lower the boom on a traveling MAC team.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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I always appreciate helpful discussion, but I HAVENT BET CMU and if line stays at 10-13.5 wont be betting either side in the cmich/arizona game.

Cmu team total over and/or game total over is my angle for that game.

:lol:

ULM: Like the special teams and have a great returner/wr in Luther Ambrose capable of making a few big plays during the game. Tex is loaded of course, but this # is too high considering ULM has decent overall talent. We heard for a decade tex blows out non con early season opponents and then in 07 they beat ark st 21-13. LOL Would have bet this game anything above 35.

Stanford: Team is returning almost everyone and wazzu while probably not as bad as last year has a horrible secondary. Line should be at least -18.5.

Wisc: Power b10 team playing a mac team. Wisc a top half b10 team. Too much size and the overall talent gap is too great for this # to not be 17.5 or higher in Madison.

SDST: Horrible team finally with a decent coach and he added a great staff. Considering its SDST, this is an excellent staff. QB was solid in several games last year and most of team returns. SDST hung around in South Bend ly early in season. UCLA is improved, but prefer them in dog role. Would have bet this one 15 or higher. If this # gets bet to 21 or higher, Ill be adding to this play.
 

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5* UL Monroe +40.5
Gotta disagree with you strongly on this one Woff. ULM has one of the worst run D's in the country. That's one reason why Ole Miss laid a 59-0 beating on them last season. I think it will be a minor miracle if ULM holds Texas out of the 60's. And I look for Mack Brown to play Colt McCoy a fair amount in this game to get his Heisman campaign started. Something I believe the Horns are really going to push for their QB this season. Just like last season's Texas out of conference opponents, I don't see ULM scoring over 10 points here. This team might improve somewhat within the Sunbelt conference. But you won't be able to tell it in this game. They are WAY outmanned here.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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GS, ULM had alot of injuries last season and that had to impact their run and overall D as season progressed. Ole miss was a hot team by that point of season and that late in season would have blown out most beat up, small conf teams.

I can just as easily argue they battled at arkansas to a 28-27 showdown in ark. While ark is < than texas, 40.5 is alot of lumber.

Also watched the opener at Auburn, ULM moved the ball into the redzone several times, but turnovers, failed 4th down conversions, and missed FG cost them from covering +34. Ill also add they were buried in 2h by auburn running game.

I really like ULM secondary this year. They have lsu transfer Troy Giddens back there and thats a huge + for a sunbelt team.

Ambrose is similar to TY Hilton at FIU. He is a big play threat whenever he has the ball in his hands and in the open field he is very impressive.

Thats where we disagree. I see ULM scoring at least 13 pts on this game and probably higher.

Unless someone is fading the Pokes, it seems you b12 guys often disagree with people fading UT and OU.

What is and where the heck did the name Pokes come from anyway?

:toast:
 

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Woff...My main problem with betting against Texas is their track record against weaker opponents when they have a good offensive line coming back. They totally overpower teams like this and cover the spread almost every time. In 2007 the Horns had a ton of offensive line problems coming into that season. This is the only reason why their opponents covered in those early games. Take a look at their track record before that as 40 point favorites over their weak ooc opponents. It's pretty darned good. They also don't give up many points in any of these games. Yes, ULM gave Arkansas a tough game last season. But so did everybody else early in the season. I think a better barometer of this team was the week before when they lost 34-0 to a lifeless Auburn offense. I guarantee you Texas is much better than Auburn on both sides of the ball. I would be very surprised with ULM breaking in a new QB on the road if they can score more than a td on Texas. It won't take that many points to cover this game. I believe Texas can score 50 and still cover this number. I'm seeing a lot of early mismatches with several Big 12 teams. I think Nebraska strong running attack is a big mismatch for another one of the worst run D's in the country FAU. Who only has 3 starters back off of that defense. A deadly bad combination going up against a BCS conference bowl team.. And another team who ranked down at the bottom of run defense last year was Colorado St. I think they are going to have nightmares trying to stop the Buffs much improved running game. I look for Texas to do the same to ULM. And then for McCoy to go over the top with 4 or 5 TD passes to pad his Heisman stats.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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Again, as happens with alot of games, guys give a ton of reasons for backing their side.

Yes, Im aware Tex has blown out many non con teams early in schedule, but they also have won by less than 40 pts in several of those games.

Your reasoning about UT padding McCoy heismann stats is one concern I have. However, if you are going to discuss tex covering big chalk as a home favorite, lets examine the past several years how many games ULM would have covered getting 40.5 pts vs major bcs opponents.

The game last year at Ole Miss is the only game ULM wouldnt have covered as +40.5 dog the past 5 years.

2008 2-1 +40.5

At #10 Auburn 34-0
At Ark 28-27 (b2b weeks)
At Ole Miss 59-0

2007 4-0 +40.5

first three games

H Tulsa 35-17 (not texas but blew out many teams past few years).
@ #25 Clemson 49-26
@ #25 tex am 54-14
@ Alabama 21-14 outright win!

2006 4-0 +40.5

@ kansas 21-19
@ bama 41-7
@ #13 ark 44-10
@ kent 42-40 (3rd consec road game and still played tough, nearly beating uk when they had qb woodson).

2005 2-0 +40.5

@ #7 georgia 44-7
@ ark 44-15

2004 2-0 +40.5

@ #17 Auburn 31-0
@ Ark 49-20 (b2b games)

Total 14-1 ats +40.5

13-1-1 ats since some shops now have the # below 40
 

Triple digit silver kook
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5* Eastern Michigan -5 -110

Like the new coach and much of the team is returning. Emu stronger at qb, rb, and most positions on the field. Army beat emu last season, but too many holes to fill and especially weak along both lines.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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5* Akron +27.5 -110 bm

Was hoping this # got to 28 or higher, but going to be away for a few days and would rather take 27.5 today than return and it be out of my range.

For a MAC team, Akron looks good at skill positions, solid SR QB that has started several games in large venue stadiums, big play threats special teams and WR. OL & DL are above average. Bet the Zips + a similar # last season at Wisc in opener and got a backdoor cover.

Penn State will be a great team again this season, but OL & WR look a bit thin, and special teams are another area of concern.

Penn State will have to be in mid 40s to cover 28.

Looks like a 35-17 type game imo.
 

Triple digit silver kook
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last one until after vacation.

4* Toledo +12.5 -110

Will be adding a 1* Toledo ML play here when line becomes available. New staff in Toledo, everyone returning, they won at UM last season and will give a down, but defensively experienced Purdue all they can handle in their home opener.
 

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5* Eastern Michigan -5 -110

Like the new coach and much of the team is returning. Emu stronger at qb, rb, and most positions on the field. Army beat emu last season, but too many holes to fill and especially weak along both lines.

Wow. I am not sure I could bring myself to bet this one. Two new HC's for starters. I know the EC coach said the offense does not have the speed he had hoped for at the skill positiions and lacks size on the DL. One thing that concerns me is that Army's new coach is fired up to have his job and it might be the job of his choice. His brother captained the '62 team and he helped Army install a new defense back in 1996. His Cal Poly teams were proficient at the triple-option and with EM's defensive deficiency one whiff on a tackle and bye bye. Both of these teams are innocent until proven guilty and even on their best days are not a team I would consider at this point. You really can't say that EM is better at QB, RB, etc until you know how and if the Army players execute their new offense, etc. which they may or may not be better suited to run. Just a lot of question marks in my opinion.
 

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found this on philsteele.com - his blog for today

A solid sleeper pick for Fantasy leagues would be Army RB Alfred McDaniel. He is a 2 time Patriot League champ in the 100 meters. He did not even make my magazine this year which means he will not be listed anywhere. He has started out having a very productive August and if you are having a Fantasy draft he is worth a late round pick.
 

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