'09 Dawoofdaddy college football action & discussion thread

[Dawoofdaddy]

@ BSU 51%
Purdue 85%
Utah 75%
Cal 49%
WSU 99%
@ UCLA 60%
Bye
@ UW 70%
USC 25%
@ Stanford 50%
ASU 90%
@ AZ 50%
Bye
OSU 55% (key injuries this late in the year could change this number)

I think a 9-3 season is very doable.

7.6 wins you have. We have beaten this Oregon horse to death already this summer. They are going to need every favorable bounce to finish 9-3 imo. I just don't see what you guys are seeing, but that's why it's called gambling and the input is appreciated.

Conan, keep that manufacturing business humming along...Arnold & Obama and their buddies in Sacramento & DC need those jobs and tax dollars to bail out banks, auto companies, and upsidedown mortgages.

Bellyputter, have you made any ncaa win totals plays yet?

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

GS, excellent post.

The Oregon D was weak last season and several of those players were drafted, so one has to wonder how weak the D will be this season in an improved conference.

(<)<

 

[bellyputter]

Bellyputter, have you made any ncaa win totals plays yet?

No. As I get older, I feel it clouds my view about certain teams as the season progresses. I know that probably doesn't make sense, but it works for me. Less stress!

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

BP, I totally understand. Futures are going to conflict with completely sound analysis during the season. However I have had success with win totals, so this season after the first few weeks, I'm going to try and reduce the # of games I'm playing. The first few weeks are my favorite weeks to bet and I'll be spraying much of the board those weeks. Having enough action on win totals and other futures should help me accomplish that goal.

A long time ago I quit fantasy football, for imo it was more of a distraction than the time I was spending putting together lineups.

 

[HinesWard86]

BOL to you this season buddy

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Good to see you stopping by Hines.

Here is my boise schedule probability.

Oregon .65
Miami, Ohio .95
@ Fresno .40
@BG .60
UC Davis 1.00
bye
@Tulsa .40
@Hawaii .85
San Jose .80
@LT .40
Idaho .95
@Utah St .85
Nevada .75
New Mex St 1.00

total 9.6 wins

 

[Conan]

Good to see you stopping by Hines.

Here is my boise schedule probability.

Oregon .65
Miami, Ohio .95
@ Fresno .40
@BG .60
UC Davis 1.00
bye
@Tulsa .40
@Hawaii .85
San Jose .80
@LT .40
Idaho .95
@Utah St .85
Nevada .75
New Mex St 1.00

total 9.6 wins

That LaTech game you have there DWD is interesting. I think it's a definite maybe that Dooley's guys come out on top there. My only reservation is that they are still an upstart team vs a perennial champ who won't get rattled easily (and Dooley's Bulldogs might.) They could still win it but they could easily choke. The points might be pretty tempting to take the home dog just the same.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Conan, I may not be giving the Boise program enough respect, but they only have one senior starter. I don't believe a team as young as Boise can get through an entire road schedule like they have w/o hiccups.

One b2b road trip @ fresno followed by @bg...both respectable programs.

Also have a heavy mileage 3 road games in 4 week stretch with @tulsa followed by @hawaii (bad team but stranger things have happened on the island), a tough san jose squad, then traveling to La Tech.

LT is a stronger team than Boise along both both lines, rb, and they have a game-changing player, wr Livas.

Even bumping the probability % .05 or .10 for a few of their games I appear to be too low still has them winning 10 or less.

The WAC has several teams capable of beating Boise this season. Fresno, La Tech, Nevada, & San Jose.

 

[russ1945]

Another projection from collegefootballpoll.com

Conan, I may not be giving the Boise program enough respect, but they only have one senior starter. I don't believe a team as young as Boise can get through an entire road schedule like they have w/o hiccups.

One b2b road trip @ fresno followed by @bg...both respectable programs.

Also have a heavy mileage 3 road games in 4 week stretch with @tulsa followed by @hawaii (bad team but stranger things have happened on the island), a tough san jose squad, then traveling to La Tech.

LT is a stronger team than Boise along both both lines, rb, and they have a game-changing player, wr Livas.

Even bumping the probability % .05 or .10 for a few of their games I appear to be too low still has them winning 10 or less.

The WAC has several teams capable of beating Boise this season. Fresno, La Tech, Nevada, & San Jose.

I don't know what to think of this one either:


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=720 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="10%" rowSpan=2 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]

[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]BOISE STATE
Broncos[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Conf.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Nat'l
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
All[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
Conf.[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Power
Rating[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Sched.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]2009 Projections[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]1[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]12-1[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]8-0[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]79.93[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]103[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=8 itxtvisited="1">

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=640 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR bgColor=#353535 itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=6 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]2009 Schedule[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom bgColor=#999999 itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Date[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Preseason
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Actual
Score[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick W/L[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Oregon[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-3.94)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-3.94)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/12[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Miami (Ohio)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-32.44)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/18[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Fresno State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-6.13)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/26[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Bowling Green[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-13.81)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]UC Davis (FCS)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-37.37)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/14[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Tulsa[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+3.82)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/24[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Hawaii[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-17.52)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/31[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]San Jose State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-19.87)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/6[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Louisiana Tech[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-9.44)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/14[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Idaho[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-34.13)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/20[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Utah State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-17.83)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/27[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Nevada[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-12.37)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]12/5[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]New Mexico State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-35.85)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[fivestarjake]

i'll be glad if i can get nevada with dd's...even @ boise.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

5*, I see a few large chalk lines on that boise list that if we get I know what side I'll be betting.



Russ, the Michigan State 12-0 prediction from that site sent its credibility into the toilet, but now I see Utah is also 12-0. ND only 8-4. Temple 11-1??? I guess they are using a well-known media tactic of making ridiculous predictions to create buzz.

 

[russ1945]

5*, I see a few large chalk lines on that boise list that if we get I know what side I'll be betting.



Russ, the Michigan State 12-0 prediction from that site sent its credibility into the toilet, but now I see Utah is also 12-0. ND only 8-4. Temple 11-1??? I guess they are using a well-known media tactic of making ridiculous predictions to create buzz.

I came across that site by accident and I was in shock. They have been around quite a while and keep archives. Supposedly they have never hit less than 50%ATS if you can believe that shit. The Michigan State thing looked absured too and I actually spent a lot of time checking out Temple because of it, who knows. How can they pick all of the games for the entire season before the season even starts without taking into account injuries, etc. Why wouldn't they make adjustments from week to week. Maybe they are trying to say that hitting 50% is easier than we all think. They already have their week one selections up (they list only the point differentials/win-loss margin). I do not know any thing about them and I think that the fact that none of us have ever heard of them before speaks volumes. If all those predictions come true we can always reserve the right to change our minds. They have Tulsa rated #10 in the nation and Texas Tech #9. I had to post this stuff, it was too good to keep to myself.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Thanks for the info russ. I really don't know why anyone would think Oregon is going to win all three games @UCLA, @Wash, @Stanford. All three of those teams are improved. Agree with qh about Utah game. Utah still has talent to beat Oregon, but they are much weaker than last years' Utah team.

This years' Oregon team is more likely to lose every road game on their schedule rather than winning the majority of their road games.

Michigan State 12-0 = lmfao

Obviously you have been reading too much Phil Steele. You are trying to tell me that Oregon is going to lose to Washington, a team that they have defeated 5 straight times now? And I suppose that they will also lose to UCLA. I guess that could happen if Oregon loses it's starting QB again. They also go to Arizona, who loses their QB. The bad news for Arizona is that the Oregon game is their last home game and Arizona's ATS record is 3-12 in teir last home game of the season. Now we have the much anticipated opener against Boise State. Not only is this a revenge game for Oregon, but the Ducks are 9-1 in their first road game. The Ducks also play at Stanford, where they are 6-1 in their last 7 efforts. But you are going to stick to your claim that Oregon has a better chance of going 0-5 with this schedule than 3-2, right? Name your price. I'll be glad to make an even wager on that.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

QH, have you made a wager that Oregon will win over 7.5 or 8 wins?

Shove your stupid challenges (offering ridiculous odds nevertheless) straight up your ass about betting forum posters when you havent even been here longer than a few months.

You are either a ghost or up to some type of scam.

Yes or no, have you made a wager season win total Oregon over?

I asked you to post a probability list of Oregons' schedule and you still havent posted that.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Obviously you have been reading too much Phil Steele. You are trying to tell me that Oregon is going to lose to Washington, a team that they have defeated 5 straight times now? And I suppose that they will also lose to UCLA. I guess that could happen if Oregon loses it's starting QB again. They also go to Arizona, who loses their QB. The bad news for Arizona is that the Oregon game is their last home game and Arizona's ATS record is 3-12 in teir last home game of the season. Now we have the much anticipated opener against Boise State. Not only is this a revenge game for Oregon, but the Ducks are 9-1 in their first road game. The Ducks also play at Stanford, where they are 6-1 in their last 7 efforts. But you are going to stick to your claim that Oregon has a better chance of going 0-5 with this schedule than 3-2, right? Name your price. I'll be glad to make an even wager on that.

Hey trend boy, maybe you are reading too much Mark Lawrence, eh?

Why pick just the last 5 years? or is it 7 years?, No wait, you changed the time frame again, it's 15, ok I finally got it, it's 7 years.

 

[bellyputter]

QH, have you made a wager that Oregon will win over 7.5 or 8 wins?

Shove your stupid challenges (offering ridiculous odds nevertheless) straight up your ass about betting forum posters when you havent even been here longer than a few months.

You are either a ghost or up to some type of scam.

Yes or no, have you made a wager season win total Oregon over?

woof, you nailed it. I have seen this punk challenge numerous posters to sizeable wagers and then act like a tough guy. Only in cyber world. LMFAO

 

[fivestarjake]

i don't know why so many people are florida this and florida that. alot of their lines are going to be grossly inflated this year. they look to be solid in the running game but i'm not real excited about their wr's. looking at their schedule they could be dd favs in 10 out of 12. thats alot to ask for in the sec. i'll be anti florida this year.

 

[GoSooners]

i don't know why so many people are florida this and florida that. alot of their lines are going to be grossly inflated this year. they look to be solid in the running game but i'm not real excited about their wr's. looking at their schedule they could be dd favs in 10 out of 12. thats alot to ask for in the sec. i'll be anti florida this year.

Personally, I think the ATS is the best way to bet against Florida. As opposed to futures betting for or against them to win the NC at unfavorable odds either way...You simply don't get 10 game ATS repeaters in college football. With the overinflated lines and high expectations of this team they will be very lucky if they can win 7 games ATS this year.

 

[trentmoney]

I've stolen a few minutes for this. Here's my best shot DWD. Similar to Ducks but I have a little more of an outsider's point of view being that I'm not an Oregon alum.

@ BSU 51%
Purdue 85%
Utah 75%
Cal 49%
WSU 99%
@ UCLA 60%
Bye
@ UW 70%
USC 25%
@ Stanford 50%
ASU 90%
@ AZ 50%
Bye
OSU 55% (key injuries this late in the year could change this number)

I think a 9-3 season is very doable. I base that on Masoli's experience and the way I think Oregon's offense will shape up and leave a lot of their opppnents scratching to stay up with them on the scoreboard. I wouldn't rule them out as potential conference champs if they can beat USC at Autzen, undoubtedly the toughest game on their schedule... Cal a close second in that regard. Very dangerous situation @Arizona. The will likely lose 2 of those 3 games. Stanford being a dangerous situation too as Ducks pointed out with Stanford coming off a bye week and playing at home in their new stadium where wins have been tough to come by up to now. If Stanford can mount a reasonable pass defense they could emerge as an upper division team.

90% vs ASU??
that's around -17 on the spread...
you really think that would be the line today??
i would take the better defense plus 17 pts in that matchup
jmo
:toast:

 

[russ1945]

Personally, I think the ATS is the best way to bet against Florida. As opposed to futures betting for or against them to win the NC at unfavorable odds either way...You simply don't get 10 game ATS repeaters in college football. With the overinflated lines and high expectations of this team they will be very lucky if they can win 7 games ATS this year.

GS: Both Florida and OU are going to get their backup QB's some playing time this year also. Florida and OU know what it takes to get there, they know when to hold em and when to fold em. They are not going to risk unnecessary injury to either one of those guy, Heisman or no Heisman.
Mack is a different story and I see him as wanting to wrap up coaching and move on up the the AD position. No way OU and Florida match LY's ATS records, Texas will have the better chance of the three and I see USC running some scores up IF they can.