'09 Dawoofdaddy college football action & discussion thread

[Dawoofdaddy]

b10d, dont let the heavy juice scare you away from under 7.5 auburn wins. new passing offense isnt going to get reps it needs since one of their starting wr hawthorne is injured at least most of the summer and leading returning wr billings is 50/50 eligible as of now.

secondary is also a big ? again with injuries.

anyway, the weekend is here early here for me and since I keep laughing everytime Ive watched this youtube remix video the past few weeks.

since we've beent posting alot of okie state discussion this summer, gundy is part of the video.

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[groundhog11]

Woof: thanks for the reply......i tried to put a different wvu avatar up but it is not working....i tried to get wilheim to help but he couldnt get it either.....

at 8.5 wins i got to go over as i look for them to have 10 wins this year....best of luck to you this season.....

 

[tbird]

Good luck this year to one of the mac mafia brothers.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Miss Over 9

Completely agree with Ole Miss over 9. I was looking at bm tonight and the larger vig is on the under (-125) which seems odd to me. I feel overall that the SEC is stronger this year but Miss gets a pretty cush schedule, return 8 on both sides, and a 2nd year with Nutt. Not going to bore u with any other reasons. You already know. GL

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Tootight, agree ole miss should be 12-0.

ghog, going to need alot of lucky bounces this season to win 10.

tbird, the other half of the mac mafia is still around, but he doesnt post much until football.

koopsta, I like your hogs to be much improved this season. was hoping for a win total line for them, so I could back the over.

adding:

3* Boise State UNDER 10.5 wins even @ bookmaker

Schedule has 13 games, so need 3 losses from them, but they are a very young team and looks like minimum 2 or 3 road losses. Home games vs Oregon, SJose & Nevada are not guaranteed wins. Too many sophomores starters for them to win week after week. Tough road trip b2b @ Tulsa and @ Hawaii home to sjose and @ La Tech. Also b2b road @ Fresno and across country @ bg. Neither or sure wins for Broncos.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Show me two road losses for Boise State. Even if they lose at home to Oregon, I cannot seeing this team losing two more. Boise has lost two conference games in 7 years, and gets Nevada at home.

As far as Mississippi goes, remember that this was a team that had a 3-4 record last season before hitting the easy part of their schedule. While they do have a nice soft schedule, with a lot of home games nearly in a row (6 out of 7), this team is capable of losing games that they shold not lose, as losses to Vandy and South Carolina at home last year will attest to. Before I jump on this bandwagon, I want to see some consistancy here.

 

[Conan]

For instance, with Oregon this Boise game is interesting. These opening games can really make or break a teams hopes. We saw it last year with Clemson/Bama game. Boise is still unique for eventhough they are highly ranked, favored in the game, and actually won AT Oregon last season, they still get to keep the national crowd cheering for the little guys on blue turf.

Oregon, being in the pac 10 and a consistent bowl team, still has more pressure to win this game to save their season and image. If they are blown out at Boise or somehow lose via miracle comeback/ot/last second winning score, forget about them winning 8 or 9 games and imo forget about them even being bowl eligible this season.

Boise got a huge edge boost when this game was moved to Thursday night.

A couple things about Oregon Dawoofdaddy that you might have missed in the P-10 thread...

First off, they have probably the best QB in the conference and a HC who was also one of the best OC's to come along in a long time. I'm sure you've heard a few things about Chip Kelly. But there's also an angle to the Boise game which elevates it above simple revenge. A couple of their DB's shelled out some pretty dirty hits in last season's game taking out Oregon's QB and nearly taking out thier top WR too. The same DB in question is back playing again for Boise St. and I think you will see a little more dirty dancing on the Ducks paet in this game than normal. They are literally out for blood. As far as the game being on smurf turf, in a way that favors Oregon under unique circumstances.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Conan, thanks for the information and Boise is a very young team. Oregon, while somewhat less than 50%, still has a reasonable chance to win at Boise.

My primary questions about Oregon this season are along the offensive and defensive lines and the schedule.

Oregon QB may be the best in pac 10 as you and uoweducks have posted, but without strong blocking the scoring # will be alot lower than last season.

Anyone that really thinks Oregon wins 9 or more games this season, I'd like to see a list including the season schedule and your win % probability assigned to each game.

Same for you daddyqh, id like to see your boise win % probability for each game on their schedule.

 

[Conan]

Conan, thanks for the information and Boise is a very young team. Oregon, while somewhat less than 50%, still has a reasonable chance to win at Boise.

My primary questions about Oregon this season are along the offensive and defensive lines and the schedule.

Oregon QB may be the best in pac 10 as you and uoweducks have posted, but without strong blocking the scoring # will be alot lower than last season.

Anyone that really thinks Oregon wins 9 or more games this season, I'd like to see a list including the season schedule and your win % probability assigned to each game.

Same for you daddyqh, id like to see your boise win % probability for each game on their schedule.

Very good question. Maybe Ducks would like to join in too. I'll get back to you with that this week DWD. I need a couple days to sit back and then put some focus on it... (such matters as returning experience and how the new starters have looked so far... conditioning et al.) I'm too damn busy lately being a responsible American running this manufacturing business of mine, hunkering down and getting it onto a more solid foundation... priorities being as they are.

 

[russ1945]

Oregon - cmputer projection

This is from collegefootballpoll.com

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</TD><TD width="27%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]OREGON
Ducks[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Conf.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Nat'l
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
All[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
Conf.[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Power
Rating[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Sched.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]2009 Projections[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]34[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]8-4[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]7-2[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]78.99[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=8 itxtvisited="1">

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=640 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR align=middle bgColor=#353535 itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=6 itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2009 Schedule[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom bgColor=#999999 itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Date[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Preseason
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Actual
Score[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick W/L[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Boise State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+3.94)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+3.94)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/12[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Purdue[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-20.96)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/19[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Utah[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+1.98)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/26[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]California[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-4.42)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Washington State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-31.85)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/10[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at UCLA[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-11.35)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/24[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Washington[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-25.84)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/31[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]USC[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+9.05)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/7[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Stanford[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-6.28)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/14[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Arizona State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-14.99)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/21[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Arizona[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]L (+0.51)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]12/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Oregon State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-6.58)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Very interesting. A win against Cal, but a loss at Arizona. I am not buying a loss vs Utah either. Utah lost a temendous amount of talent on offense. That is a lot to replace and have it done by game 3.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

You may want to check into these guys record. It is very easy to pick a USC or a Florida to go 12-0,but picking the rest of the teams is a bit tougher. In 2007, they picked a 6-6 UCLA team to go 11-1. In 2005, they picked a 10-1 Oregon team to go 4-8. So like any other prediction, computer generated or not, this is a crap shoot.

 

[russ1945]

You may want to check into these guys record. It is very easy to pick a USC or a Florida to go 12-0,but picking the rest of the teams is a bit tougher. In 2007, they picked a 6-6 UCLA team to go 11-1. In 2005, they picked a 10-1 Oregon team to go 4-8. So like any other prediction, computer generated or not, this is a crap shoot.

I really don't take them seriously but it is strange that their computer can spit this stuff out. I think they have Michigan St going 12-0 for the regular season. It does make you stop and think though.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Thanks for the info russ. I really don't know why anyone would think Oregon is going to win all three games @UCLA, @Wash, @Stanford. All three of those teams are improved. Agree with qh about Utah game. Utah still has talent to beat Oregon, but they are much weaker than last years' Utah team.

This years' Oregon team is more likely to lose every road game on their schedule rather than winning the majority of their road games.

Michigan State 12-0 = lmfao

 

[UoweDucks]

I'll give it a shot but this is so subjective. I know it is way off your estimates Dawoof but this is how I see it as of July 20th, 2009.



@ BSU 55%
Purdue 80%
Utah 75%
Cal 50%
WSU 99.9%
@ UCLA 65%
Bye
@ UW 70%
USC 30%
@ Stanford 55%
ASU 75%
@ AZ 65%
Bye
OSU 60%


On the questions re. Oline and Dline. I was originally much more concerned by the questions at Dline. These concerns have been alleviated due to the apparent readiness of the JC transfers that just came in. Spring ball confirmed that in my mind. However, the oline suffered a run of injuries and was a real concern all through spring.

The two reasons for optimism there are: they should return to full health by fall camp, and the starting unit looks to be a very talented, if somewhat unproven group (although many of these guys have starts under their belt). They are very well coached, Steve Greatwood is widely recognized as one of the top Oline coaches in the country. Year after year he is able to coble together a very solid unit and the talent that he has been stockpiling at Oline has never been greater, there are more 4 star lineman in this group than there ever has been.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

@ BSU 55%
Purdue 80%
Utah 75%
Cal 50%
WSU 99.9%
@ UCLA 65%
Bye
@ UW 70%
USC 30%
@ Stanford 55%
ASU 75%
@ AZ 65%
Bye
OSU 60%

Even with your optimistic outlook for Oregon, the net probabilities only add to 7.8 games.

I pretty much agree with you regarding their home games, but your road % are very high imo.

Boise game at greater than 50% looks too high. But I have higher % for Purdue and Utah.

Based on those, other than UW, you will have some great dog moneylines to bet Oregon in every road game they play this season. If UW wins a few games early in season and at least competes for most of the USC game, Oregon at best should be a short fav @ UW. I hope Oregon is favored in that many road conference games this season.

 

[UoweDucks]

Even with your optimistic outlook for Oregon, the net probabilities only add to 7.8 games.

I pretty much agree with you regarding their home games, but your road % are very high imo.

Boise game at greater than 50% looks too high. But I have higher % for Purdue and Utah.

Based on those, other than UW, you will have some great dog moneylines to bet Oregon in every road game they play this season. If UW wins a few games early in season and at least competes for most of the USC game, Oregon at best should be a short fav @ UW. I hope Oregon is favored in that many road conference games this season.

We'll just have to see how thing shape up. At the end of the day what you say about the improvement of those teams is true. But even at their improved level Oregon is still the superior team and as the season wears on Oregon as the deeper team should prove more resilient particularly vs UW in week 8 off a bye week. They'll probably drop a game that they shouldn't, my guess would be @ Stanford since the Cardinal gets a bye week in front of that.

I am more bullish than most here on the BSU game. Traditionally this game would be a perfect setup for the WAC team. But those intangibles don't work this year. Oregon comes in revenge minded and has full respect for BSU. This is a situation that BSU has not had in prior BCS conf visits. This time they will not be overlooked. Additionally, as has been noted there is a very real anger from the Oregon players about the last contest and several cheap shots that had an effect on the outcome. As a result, I think both teams have equal motivation. Right now there is a TV screen in Oregon's locker room playing a loop of last years ORE/BSU games cheap shots and includes all the hootin and hollering that BSU players were doing it afterwards. It has been playing since February.

All that said it is a very tough matchup and at 55% it still is essentially a tossup game.

 

[bellyputter]

CRIS has their college regular season win totals up.

 

[Conan]

I've stolen a few minutes for this. Here's my best shot DWD. Similar to Ducks but I have a little more of an outsider's point of view being that I'm not an Oregon alum.

@ BSU 51%
Purdue 85%
Utah 75%
Cal 49%
WSU 99%
@ UCLA 60%
Bye
@ UW 70%
USC 25%
@ Stanford 50%
ASU 90%
@ AZ 50%
Bye
OSU 55% (key injuries this late in the year could change this number)

I think a 9-3 season is very doable. I base that on Masoli's experience and the way I think Oregon's offense will shape up and leave a lot of their opppnents scratching to stay up with them on the scoreboard. I wouldn't rule them out as potential conference champs if they can beat USC at Autzen, undoubtedly the toughest game on their schedule... Cal a close second in that regard. Very dangerous situation @Arizona. The will likely lose 2 of those 3 games. Stanford being a dangerous situation too as Ducks pointed out with Stanford coming off a bye week and playing at home in their new stadium where wins have been tough to come by up to now. If Stanford can mount a reasonable pass defense they could emerge as an upper division team.

 

[GoSooners]

Because they are playing 7 home games, I kind of like Oregon as an ATS team this season. But the line of over/under 8 wins is a no play for me. The Ducks have averaged exactly 8 wins a season since 2004. But the problem that I have right now with this team is they have only 5 starters returning on a defense that if you take Wash/WSU out of the equation, gave up an average of 32 points per game in conference last year. It means that to get over that 8 win number, assuming they lose to either USC or Cal at home, will have to win 3 out of 5 of thier games on the road vs Boise St., UCLA, Wash., Stanford, Zona to get to 9 wins. Unless the Ducks defense improves, I don't see how they can take the majority of their road games. I still think they have a very good chance to beat Boise in their first game. Mainly because I believe Boise could have the same defensive problems that Oregon has this season. But the Ducks will face Pac-10 teams who should all be improved this season when they hit the road. And again, if you take Wash. out of the equation, Oregon beat each of these road teams by an average of just a little over a TD at home last season. It will be much tougher to win these "revenge games" on the road.