'09 Dawoofdaddy college football action & discussion thread

[Dawoofdaddy]

Ducks, maybe why I am different than yours and most Oregon forecasts, is that I think Oregon loses at both Stanford & Washington this year. Harbaugh now has Stanford off the floor and Washington can only improve this season.

While I believe they win both home games against Purdue & Utah, they are not sure wins as most pac 10 out of conference home games.

Oregon had two from their secondary drafted in 2nd round and I just don't believe they are the type of program that immediately reloads top talent.

Oregon State game looks like a tossup to me and I can't find 8 or 9 Oregon wins in their schedule.

 

[UoweDucks]

Ducks, maybe why I am different than yours and most Oregon forecasts, is that I think Oregon loses at both Stanford & Washington this year. Harbaugh now has Stanford off the floor and Washington can only improve this season.

While I believe they win both home games against Purdue & Utah, they are not sure wins as most pac 10 out of conference home games.

Oregon had two from their secondary drafted in 2nd round and I just don't believe they are the type of program that immediately reloads top talent.

Oregon State game looks like a tossup to me and I can't find 8 or 9 Oregon wins in their schedule.

I think 8 is the right number and I can see the under hitting.

Not here to argue the merits of the bet, I respect your analysis even though I am a bit more optimistic. If interested my take on the secondary;

Boise is a TOUGH one for Oregon and here is where the losses in the secondary may be most detrimental as I think Moore is the best passing qb the ducks will face the entire season. For Oregon to win that I believe they will have to outscore them.

Here is why I don't think that the secondary is going to be as much of an issue after game one.

First, they will have an all american at one corner in Thurmond, an all P10 safety in Ward. They replace Byrd with Willie Glasper a senior who was a parade all american. He better be ready because he is going to be tested. I think he will do OK. Replacing Chung will be a Jr, Talmadge Jackson. There is a dropoff of course but the kid is an out and out baller. We differ on our opinions as I see this as reload not rebuild. To what extent how quickly the secondary comes together though remains to be seen.

Regards

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

I think 8 is the right number and I can see the under hitting.

Not here to argue the merits of the bet, I respect your analysis even though I am a bit more optimistic. If interested my take on the secondary;

I appreciate your feedback as constructive feedback such as yours is one of the main reasons I post plays here.

Overall, other than LB, I don't see Oregon being improved at any position.

QB is stable, while Blount is solid, they lost JJ to nfl, so at best RB is stable, but hasn't improved. Harper & Plfugrad leaving didn't help, so overall I think WR is stable to weaker. The secondary, OL & DL each had 2 guys drafted, and special teams lost both returners and long snapper, so my grading is all those positions weaker.

Coaching doesn't seem to be too much lower, but since Belotti is no longer wearing the official badge, I'm grading that slightly lower as well.

Alot of times, when I bet a team total under it's because several teams in a teams' conference being improved.

p10 teams that overall are stronger (bold = much stronger) than last season:

Arizona, Arizona St, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Wazzu (but still not much better than an average wac team).

p10 teamst hat overall are weaker:

Oregon St (defensively), Oregon, USC (although still better than at least 90% of ncaa teams).

 

[BigdaddyQH]

How did Oregon State do in Happy Valley last year?

Oregon State beat USC at home. USC beat PSU at home and PSU drilled Oregon State at Home.


Please name the last Pathetic 10 to team win a National Title besides USC? Name the last time Pac 10 had more than 1 team in a BCS game?
You can not even sit here and say the PAC 10 is any better than any other conference. How did Cal fare away from home at MD? You want to start looking at individual games, yes, give USC credit they have beaten everybody in the Big 10 the past 8 or 9 years, but has the rest of the conference done. USC is just like OSU and Penn State, they play 2 games a year and they still can't go undfeated. 1 Unbeaten season for the mighty Trojans under Carroll.

Stop being blinded by the fact that it is the Pac 1 and little 9. When was the last team in the Pac 10 finished in the top 5 that wasn't named USC? Clue: Same year they had 2 teams in a BCS game.

It is the SEC on top, followed by the Big 12 and the then ACC/Big10/Pac10 (3-5, pick your own order), followed by the big Big East.

Frankly, the Big 10 sucks and so does the Pac 10. The Big 10 has the most tradition and name recognition on a national level and they have always had their teams on TV more than other conferences until the past 5 years, where pretty much you are guaranteed to be on TV unless you are WSU. That is the reason the Big 10 is and will remain the spotlight.

Seriously, who has stepped up to even challenge USC. The conference is pathetic. Cal starts out like house on fire and the gets put out by week 7. Mike Riley guarantees at least 1 loss by week 4 and Oregon loses games they shouldn't lose and Mike Stoops in Tucson can barely figure out what .500 is.

So before you go and blow your horn over wins the Holiday Bowl (5th place Big 12 team), Pioneer Bowl, Sun Bowl and Emerald bowl. Realize unlike the Big 10. The Pac 10 doesn't play any teams from the SEC in bowl games and the big 10 has .500 record vs the SEC in bowl games since 2000. Also, with the exception of the Sun Bowl, the Pac 10 has a distinct travel advantage in their bowl games. Holiday Bowl in PST, Las Veags Bowl, Rose Bowl, Cal at home in SF at the Emerald bowl.

Let's review the great Pac 10 wins this past bowl season:

Oregon State 3-0 over Pitt played in El Paso
Cal 24-17 over U in SF
Arizona over Byu, I think 31-24 or something like that. in LV
Oregon over Okie lite 45-35 or something similiar. in SD
USC trashing PSU 38-24, not as close as the score. in LA

If you don't think play in different time zones and close to home makes a difference, than why is it when Pac 10 teams have gone east to play they have gotten destroyed (USC vs Iowa and Oklahoma not withstanding)?

Please learn to review all facts before running off at the mouth.

The one fact I know is that by taking the Pac 10 and fading the Big 10, I made plenty ofmonegy, something that you can not say. There is no excuse for the Big 10. They schedule patsies for their non-con games. Statfox has then rated as the LOWEST of the BCS conferences based on overall power ratings of each team. You will not be able to affordme this year, if you continue to wager on these phonies in Bowl Games. I will bury you deep in Bandini Mountain my friend. The Pac 10 has been destroying the Big 10 over all for a few years now, and nothing is going to change this year. The Pac 10's best has been much better than anything theBig 10 had to offer since 2002. In the past 5 years, the Pac 10 is 14-6 against the Big 10. That is a good old fashion ass whipping, Big 10 Homers. There is nothing you can say about that, other than the fact that the Pac 10 is obviously a superior conference to the Big 10.~~:<<

 

[bigtendominator]

The one fact I know is that by taking the Pac 10 and fading the Big 10, I made plenty ofmonegy, something that you can not say. There is no excuse for the Big 10. They schedule patsies for their non-con games. Statfox has then rated as the LOWEST of the BCS conferences based on overall power ratings of each team. You will not be able to affordme this year, if you continue to wager on these phonies in Bowl Games. I will bury you deep in Bandini Mountain my friend. The Pac 10 has been destroying the Big 10 over all for a few years now, and nothing is going to change this year. The Pac 10's best has been much better than anything theBig 10 had to offer since 2002. In the past 5 years, the Pac 10 is 14-6 against the Big 10. That is a good old fashion ass whipping, Big 10 Homers. There is nothing you can say about that, other than the fact that the Pac 10 is obviously a superior conference to the Big 10.~~:<<

You still can't answer the questions I posed to you?

Last national Champ not named USC? Last Heisman winner not from USC? Number of players drafted in the past 10, 20, 30, 50 years?

I see the Pac 10 played 0 SEC teams and a 5th place Big 12 team. Great work.

Nothing like Miami, BYU, Pitt Okie State and Penn State. How many of these teams were ranked in the final polls?

 

[groundhog11]

Woof: i really like your maryland, illinois, and uconn futures.....im already on uconn, and mary, and will add ill later....

what are your thoughts on wvu this year? think you saved me from playing a future on them last year....

 

[SoonerBS]

After reading all the OSU and PSU love at this forum this weekend, I decided to play a couple longshot b10 teams.

.5* Illinois to win Big Ten +875 @ 5dimes.com

Everyone talks about Pryor, but the fact remains although Juice at times throws too many ints, he still is the b10 most experienced QB. Offensively, Illinois can hang with the big boys, but the defense is still iffy. They play OSU after a bye week and if OSU loses to USC, I like Illinois' chances to beat OSU. Penn St plays @ Ill.

.25* Minnesota to win Big Ten 30-1 @ 5dimes.com

I believe the Gophers are very underrated coming into this season. Returning QB along with decent depth at most positions, as Brewster has done a pretty good job recruiting some big time talent to Minn. Apparently, top recruit WR Hayo Carpenter will be enrolled and coupled with Decker, Minny offensively looks to be very strong this season.

I don't agree with your love for Minny as I stated some reasons in my Big Ten thread, but I do like your play on Illinois. This conference is such this year that i do not see a clrea winner for the Championship. Any one of 5 teams could win this conference this season IMO.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

GHog, it's good to see you around and I remember us discussing WV under season wins last season. WV dumped their first 2 road games at ecar and colorado and it was an easy under winner.

Btw, what happened to your patented WV avatar?

Regarding WV this season, the # is 8.5 and as of now it's a no play for me, but I do again lean under. It just isn't a strong enough opinion to make the bet right now.

Their OOC is (ignoring Liberty), ECar, @ Auburn and Colorado (Thursday game) and Marshall. While they should lose 2 of those games, none of those teams are strong enough for me to ink likely L with real confidence.

Games like the ECar scare me for although I believe ECar is a stronger team, it's sort of a revenge game and it's at Morgantown. I think they beat Colorado at home, especially a Thursday game. Marshall has been kicked around by WV the past few years, but I believe I read WV has discontinued the series, and this years' improved Marshall team may finally beat WV.

I do believe similar to last season, WV again is weaker overall, but the BE looks to be a weaker league overall, so unlike Oregon, WV slipping this year mostly has to do with their team rather than it being coupled with other teams within their conference being stronger.

The WV coaching staff is the weakest in the big east, and greatly outmatched by a few staffs.

I don't know much about QB Jarrett Brown. He is a senior, has 6-4 size, and has a decent amount of experience. He backed up a star for a few years, so I'd like some help and info from you about what you are expecting from him.

Pat White was one of those special college players. He was a multi-year starter with more than 100 carreer tds & 10k combined rushing/passing yards. With all the talk of him being only a running qb, he had a 65% completion rate...alot of "throwing qbs" would love to have Whites' completion stats. Career td/int was 56-23 and 35-11 last 2 seasons.

***

BS, agree Illinois at that price was the best value. The Minny play is a small play and we'll know what we need to know about them when Cal comes to town week 3. Agree the b10 is more than a 2 horse race between osu/psu this season, regardless what sportswriters and posters here believe.

 

[UoweDucks]

I appreciate your feedback as constructive feedback such as yours is one of the main reasons I post plays here.

Overall, other than LB, I don't see Oregon being improved at any position.

QB is stable, while Blount is solid, they lost JJ to nfl, so at best RB is stable, but hasn't improved. Harper & Plfugrad leaving didn't help, so overall I think WR is stable to weaker. The secondary, OL & DL each had 2 guys drafted, and special teams lost both returners and long snapper, so my grading is all those positions weaker.

Coaching doesn't seem to be too much lower, but since Belotti is no longer wearing the official badge, I'm grading that slightly lower as well.

Alot of times, when I bet a team total under it's because several teams in a teams' conference being improved.

p10 teams that overall are stronger (bold = much stronger) than last season:

Arizona, Arizona St, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Wazzu (but still not much better than an average wac team).

p10 teamst hat overall are weaker:

Oregon St (defensively), Oregon, USC (although still better than at least 90% of ncaa teams).

Good stuff.
We all analyze things differently. I see the qb position as greatly improved given that last year Oregon started the season with a combination of Roper, Harper and Masoli in that order and it wasn't until the final 3rd of the season that Masoli cemented the job and came into his own. Given a qb's improvement from season one to two I project Masoli as the top qb going into the season. To me the qb position is the most valuable in this conference and a proven stud here gives me the benefit of the doubt over just about any other team that can't match that strength.

As for your other position analysis don't see much to argue with there, they need to prove it on the field.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Good point Ducks about the QB, but I still don't consider it greatly upgraded.

This was another angle I used that convinced me Oregon is a solid UNDER 8.

I am handicapping this team with 4 very likely home game wins. Basically, assuming these are in the bag wins. Of course they aren't, but since this play is about playing the under wins, I'll give them a base of 4 games as definite wins.

Purdue, Utah, Wazzu, Ariz St.

So, in order for me to actually lose this play, they would have to be 5-3 or better in the following games.

@ Boise, Cal, @ UCLA @Washington, USC, @ Stanford, @ Arizona, Oregon State.

Imo the only one of those games they have a greater than 50% chance of winning is Oregon State.

Quite honestly, I think they will be fortunate to win 2 of the latter list.

However, hypothetically if they beat OSU, and since I'm stretching a bad (but improved) Washington team, let's give Oregon a win there, and give them an upset in one of their tougher games either Cal, USC or win @ boise, that is still only 7-5. Let's throw in another conference road win, thats 8-4 and still a push.

Bellyputter made a good post this week that no matter how much capping we do, this is still gambling and the ball takes alot of strange bounces.

Oregon is going to need plenty of fortunate bounces and 0 unfortunate bounces to win 8 or 9 games this season.

(<)<

 

[UoweDucks]

Yep,
Always try to stay fluid. If things turn out differently than you expect have to be ready to fade your original opinion.
good discussion.

 

[GoSooners]

I kind of follow what Trentmoney said on here one time about totals. He tries to find the teams that he thinks the books are off on by 1.5 games. In other words if the books set a team at 8.5 wins for the season and your number is 7 that would be a good play for the under. That way if a team maybe gets that one win they aren't suppose to get in your thinking, you still have that .5 to play with. Although getting these kinds of good numbers are few and far between, I still tend to look for the .5 that a book puts on a team rather than a whole number. If it's anything I hate, it's breaking even at hte end of the year. I either want to lose a bet or win a bet. With a big preference on the latter.

 

[trentmoney]

I kind of follow what Trentmoney said on here one time about totals. He tries to find the teams that he thinks the books are off on by 1.5 games. In other words if the books set a team at 8.5 wins for the season and your number is 7 that would be a good play for the under. That way if a team maybe gets that one win they aren't suppose to get in your thinking, you still have that .5 to play with. Although getting these kinds of good numbers are few and far between, I still tend to look for the .5 that a book puts on a team rather than a whole number. If it's anything I hate, it's breaking even at hte end of the year. I either want to lose a bet or win a bet. With a big preference on the latter.

and from the early numbers from the greek i haven't been able to find too many that are 1.5 off from my listed totals...

with this way of capping you don't get too many plays (2 in '07 and 3 last year) but i'm 5-0 last 2 yrs so it's quality rather than quantity
:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

and from the early numbers from the greek i haven't been able to find too many that are 1.5 off from my listed totals...

with this way of capping you don't get too many plays (2 in '07 and 3 last year) but i'm 5-0 last 2 yrs so it's quality rather than quantity
:toast:

I was 8 for 10 last season with my totals. But I agree, I haven't been able to find a whole lot that I really like at this point.

 

[trentmoney]

I was 8 for 10 last season with my totals. But I agree, I haven't been able to find a whole lot that I really like at this point.

i know you killed it last year, and there are some winners that i will end up passing on (mich st o7 last yr was a winner that i passed on) but i'd rather only play a few and not be tied into a lot of teams and games then play a lot

good luck

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Something that traps alot of guys in these win totals is they put too much emphasis on teams always winning their home games and looking for OVERS to bet. I lwill bet overs, but I do prefer betting win totals under.

Very few teams are undefeated at home for an entire season. Unless its a truly elite program and coach, if my first study of the schedule I dont have one loss, I will look through more closely and I usually find at least one.

The last season Oregon was undefeated at home was 2000. In 02 they were 5-3, 04 they were a weak 3-3, 07 5-2, and the other years 1 loss.

I'm betting that Oregon again loses at least one home game and with Cal & USC visiting, I like my chances.

Also, alot my capping has to do with WHEN certain games are on the schedule.

For instance, with Oregon this Boise game is interesting. These opening games can really make or break a teams hopes. We saw it last year with Clemson/Bama game. Boise is still unique for eventhough they are highly ranked, favored in the game, and actually won AT Oregon last season, they still get to keep the national crowd cheering for the little guys on blue turf.

Oregon, being in the pac 10 and a consistent bowl team, still has more pressure to win this game to save their season and image. If they are blown out at Boise or somehow lose via miracle comeback/ot/last second winning score, forget about them winning 8 or 9 games and imo forget about them even being bowl eligible this season.

Boise got a huge edge boost when this game was moved to Thursday night.

BYU under 9 play is another one that the previous home records really got my attention.

L3Y they are 18-0 at home. A peek back another 3 years and shows they were 7-11 at home.

This year, I have the overall team handicapped neutral to slightly weaker, they only play 5 home games anyway, and OOC they draw OKLA (in Texas), @ Tulane, FSU, and Utah St.

They need to be 10-2 for me to LOSE this wager.

Okla is a L
FSU is a HOME L (that ends the home winning streak).

Also, since @Tulane is sandwiched between road game vs OKLA played in Texas, and back home to play FSU, the Tulane game isn't a lock win most people now probably assume it is.

Since they don't have a bye until Halloween, and BYU is already lacking OL & DL depth, instead of me capping them to win 2 of the 3 game stretch @UNLV, @ SD ST, TCU, I am capping them to lose 2 of 3 and byu under 9 became identified as a potential play.

So even if they win vs for instance FSU or win 2 of the 3 games instead of losing 2 of 3 @unlv, @sd st, tcu, they have to sweep the following games to beat me.

@ Tulane, Col St, Utah St, @ Wyoming, @ NMexico, AF, Utah.

Tulane a likely byu W, but the sandwich scenario gives tulane more chance than most believe. Col St is down this year, so thats a very likely W for byu. Utah St is improved and stayed within reasonable reach and is improved with a returning solid qb. wyoming will be improved this year, new mexico is pure garbage so thats a solid byu W, AF could surprise them, but not likely as they are lacking overall team speed and size relative to byu another W, Utah is down this year, but kicked byu ass last year and still has enough players to compete and beat byu so advantage byu but not close to being a definite W.

I believe BYU loses one of those 7 games and that will probably be more than enough to cash the ticket.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Since it was about the only thing I won last year after week 1

Season wins @ Bookmaker

.5 unit Ole Miss OVER 5.5 -115
.5 unit N Carolina OVER 6.5 +125
.5 unit Arkansas UNDER 5.5 +130
.5 unit Michigan UNDER 7.5 +120
.5 unit Purdue UNDER 6.5 +120
.5 unit Ariz St UNDER 8.5 -130
.5 unit Georgia UNDER 9.5 -155
.5 unit Fla St UNDER 8 even
.5 unit Kansas UNDER 7.5 +110

These were from intial post in my thread last season.

Added later in post # 89

.5 unit West Virginia under 10 -130 thegreek
.5 unit Boise State under 10 -105 betgrande
.5 unit Notre Dame over 7 -120 betgrande
.5 unit Cinci over 6.5 -140 betgrande
.5 unit Georgia under 9.5 +105 betgrande

summary of 2008 win totals plays.

9-2 & 2 pushes and a double georgia win, so really 10-2 and several + money winners.

Trent, I respect your ability to be selective, but with your arrangements offshore, 1 or 2 plays seems overly selective.

I'm hitting these team totals alot heavier than last season, since I had success and I have extra accounts to use with better limits.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Well, it looks like bookmaker "where the line originates", also couldn't post win totals prior to greek, 5 dimes and betphoenix. Also, wanted to see trent $ plays, but going to be away most of the weekend and bm taking their sweet time posting their #'s. Hat tips to RX sponsors 5dimes and betphoenix.

Added more teams today. I have one more I want to play, but I want the higher # to play under and since its very high juice, should eventually raise the # with lower juice.

I won't be doing much posting after today until bookmaker or other books post ncaa week 1 lines.

6* OLE MISS OVER 9 wins -115 @ 5dimes

Along the theme they have a schedule that gives the Rebels a decent shot of a 12-0 record. They avoid both Florida and GA, have 7 home games.

4* AUBURN UNDER 7.5 wins -195 @ phoenix

Another new coach and staff. They brought in Malzahn to run his offense and a similar attempt completely flopped last season and sec is too tough & talented a league to have alot of question marks coming into the season and expect to be 8-4 or better. They do have 8 home games, but 4 roads are tough. I think La Tech has a real chance of an upset week 1, but even giving them a 4-0 start, I only see 5 or 6 wins on their schedule.

4* Georgia Tech UNDER 8.5 wins -120 @5dimes

GT surprised alot of people last season with 9 wins in PJ first season as head coach. The schedule is tougher this season and the acc Florida teams both beat GT this season. They replaced a home game against Gardner-Webb with a road game at Vanderbilt. GT returns most of the offense, but the largest ? mark for them is DL. They are again a bowl team, but with several acc top teams looking improved, GT falls short from winning 9.

4* Michigan State UNDER 8 wins -165 @ 5dimes

Their '08 9-3 record was best for the decade and they have to replace their RB star Ringer. The only sure wins I see for them are Montana St, NW, and the only road game they are probable to win is @ Purdue and they draw Michigan, Iowa, & Penn St at home dont see them winning 2 of those 3. They also play 2 very competitive in-state MAC teams C & W Michigan, teams with 2 of the nations' better QB's.

4* West Virginia UNDER 8.5 wins -110 @ phoenix

I don't like the coach and replacing Pat White will be a tall order. Although QB Brown is a senior, he is a downgrade from White and the OL looks much weaker than last season. What finally made WV under a play for me was their special teams unit looks drastically weaker this season with loss of punter and kicker Pat McAfee.

3* Georgia UNDER 8.5 wins -125 @5dimes

QB, RB, and WR look weaker. OL & DL combined among nations' best, but OOC is tough with @Ok St, Ariz St, @ GT. I see 4 or more losses among OKST, ARK, LSU, TENN, FLA, GT.

3* LSU UNDER 8.5 wins -130 @ 5dimes

Primary reasoning for this play is the SCHEDULE. Very solid team again, but road games at GA, Bama, and Ole Miss all probable losses. Also have Florida, improved Arkansas in finale. If they lose @ Washington in opener, they have very little chance of winning 9.

3* Notre Dame OVER 9 wins -105 @5dimes

Schedule is very reasonable and if they find a way to beat USC, Irish will be among national title contenders. Weis will not have any excuses if Irish are not in January bowl game this season.

3* Oklahoma UNDER 10 wins -160 @phoenix

OL large downgrade from last season and schedule after bye week is very tough. Bradford 50-8 td/int ratio last season and will be tough to repeat with a weaker OL. They lose at Miami, Texas, and at least one other game.

3* Texas Tech UNDER 8 wins -180 @5dimes

Crabtree was a special player for TT and he & Harrell will be missed. OL and secondary both look much weaker. Facing B12 DL and passing attacks, those are big problems. They could struggle to even be bowl eligible this season and they should lose their final 3 games.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

You know, I thought Ole Miss could be a disappointment this year with all the hype but after looking their schedule over, I'm in shock how easy it is. Bama and LSU at home, no UF or UGA, and not one OOC game against a BCS school. The fact that Vegas put them at 9 wins tells me that something is fishy but still, gotta like those odds.

I think their OOC schedule is easier than Penn St. and Texas!

 

[bigtendominator]

Well,
6* OLE MISS OVER 9 wins -115 @ 5dimes
Agree with this one.

4* AUBURN UNDER 7.5 wins -195 @ phoenix

I am not playing this one, but would have to lean on the Under as well.
4* Georgia Tech UNDER 8.5 wins -120 @5dimes
I like GT to 9-3 or even 10-2. Their 6 road games scare me, but what I like is that there isn't a single opponent on their schedule that they can't beat. Its not as if they play UF or someone similiar. However, with all that being said, they could easily wind up 6-6. I am stilling going on the over here.


4* Michigan State UNDER 8 wins -165 @ 5dimes
One of the better wagers out there. MSU really wasn't as good as their record last year and I don't see them doing much this year.
4* West Virginia UNDER 8.5 wins -110 @ phoenix
Another pass for me. This team can easily get to 10-2 or 11-1, with their D, but they could also go 6-6 as easily. I believe their season win total goes over if the beat Auburn, as that will spur them the rest of the way.

3* Georgia UNDER 8.5 wins -125 @5dimes

Schedule is too tough and too many new players at the skill positions.

3* LSU UNDER 8.5 wins -130 @ 5dimes

Passing on this one, as I am not sure what to expect from this team. This can be team that some how winds up in the SEC championship, with a MNC title shot, or barely clings to a bowl berth.

3* Notre Dame OVER 9 wins -105 @5dimes

The over is pretty solid. The schedule is very favorable. Also, they play USC far enough into the season to suggest that even a loss to USC won't cripple or ruin the season. The only way they don't get to 9 wins, is an early loss in the 1st 4 games.

3* Oklahoma UNDER 10 wins -160 @phoenix

I love OU over 10. Yes, they have struggled in bowl games, but they have dominated conference play and even a lose to Texas, still allows them to get to 11 wins. Also, I don't see them losing 3 games. I will take advantage of the 10.0, as they may lose 2 (i don't see it), but 3 is going to tough to see against that defense.

3* Texas Tech UNDER 8 wins -180 @5dimes

At best TTU gets to 8 wins and that really isn't likely. Really like this play going under.