Sucker Bets

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
2,365
Tokens
not to sure I'm as bad as you in math LOL what I was stating was the payoff if you parlayed two straight bets
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> for those in the know there is a way to make a 3 teamer a very good bet <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


pls do share...
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
May 20, 2001
Messages
15,046
Tokens
One more thing, if parlays are such sucker bets, then why does pinnacle not give you reduced juice on parlays?? The juice at pinnacle is -110 on ALL parlays for basketball and football
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
42,910
Tokens
So you need to hit 28% of 2 gamers to make money...Yet you are saying the actual odds are...

That is less than 1 out of every 3...So to make good coin you would have to hit one out of three....& you are saying the actual odds are 1:3? I am still not so sure that they are not 4:1
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
May 20, 2001
Messages
15,046
Tokens
well true odds are 1 in 4 chances, but that is slightly different than how you were putting it earlier.

You said that one would win 260 and lose 400 ealrier I think or something to that accord.


What you are getting at is when I said 1:3. Well that is a math proportion way of expressing the odds. Yes the odds are 1 out of 4, but in math if you write 1:4, then that means 1 good play and 4 bad ones.


Here is how it stands:

1 winner for every 3 losers should be expected when tossing a coin or 1:3


Now I never said that the 2.6 was higher, because it isnt, but that is why you take some dogs and handicap. Or maybe pay off players, etc
chainsaw.gif
guil.gif
bigsmiley.gif
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
The odds of hitting a 2 team parlay are 1 out of 4 making true odds 3-1. Always subtract one for true odds is the easy way to remember. Odds of hitting a three teamer are 1 in 8 making true odds 7-1.

Odds of hitting a two teamer are 1 in 4 or 25 %. You need to hit almost 28% to break even at 13/5.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
May 20, 2001
Messages
15,046
Tokens
Like I said before, I really only know all of these numbers because all that I bet are 2 and 3 team parlays as a general rule. Although, I do bet quite a bit on them though
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
(13/5)x = 100-x ; where x = % to break even

13x = 500- 5x

18x = 500

x = 27.77

27.77 % is break even at 13/5
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
Straight vs Parlay

100 straight plays at $100 a piece. You should win 50 and lose 50.

Lose 50 = -$5000
Win 50= +4550
Expected loss= -$450



100 parlays at $100 a piece. You should win 25 and lose 75.

Lose 75= -$7500
Win 25= $6500
Expected loss= -$1000
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
Lets add 3 team parlays

100 3 teamers the odds say you should win 12.5 and lose 87.5. We'll look at $100 per play again.

87.5 losses =-8750
12.5 wins @ 6-1 = $7500
Expected loss = -$1250
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Like I said before, I really only know all of these numbers because all that I bet are 2 and 3 team parlays as a general rule. Although, I do bet quite a bit on them though <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Quack- How are you doing just betting 2 and 3 team parlays?
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
May 20, 2001
Messages
15,046
Tokens
Well for the past 2 years I am doing very well on them. Remember that your numbers above dont take into account that I almost bet EXCLUSIVLEY unders and underdogs!
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
If you are playing underdogs then you are doing even worse than projected. The favs are up in the NFL.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I am trying to figure out the math of betting two teams separately instead of a 2 team parlay. I never thought of this.

i just did a two team parlay for $50.00. My balance is $182.83 now.

If I bet the first game at $50, my balance would be 95.50 with a -110 juice.
If I take the 95.50 and bet the second game. My balance is $182.41. Where am I going wrong with my math? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Nothing wrong with the math. The problem is that 1/2 the time in a two team parlay you win one game. So if you didn't parlay it you would only lose vig on one game. While you actually can make slghtly more winning a two team parlay over betting both games straight at -110 you lose in the long run because of the 50% of the time that you win 1 of 2 games. Parlays are never better than straight bets.
 

New member
Joined
Oct 20, 2002
Messages
5,019
Tokens
Take a look even if you get 14/5.

Lose 75 bets @ $100 per game = -$7500
Win 25 at 14/5 at $100 per = $7000
Net loss =-$500

Which equals a 5% loss

You have to hit 26.32 % to break even at 14/5
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,109,860
Messages
13,463,561
Members
99,491
Latest member
prakharpal54
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com