With a huge gray area as far as universal prices on props, i will use Bovada's numbers/availabilities here as somewhat an establish and non-territorial biased gauge here
-HButker 1½ fieldgoals OVER -110 = 1 unit
-BAiyuk(sf) anytime TD +140 = 1 unit
-GKittle anytime TD +140 = 1 unit
-N Gray anytime TD +700 = .25 unit
-PMahomes anytime TD +300 = .5 unit
-KC Chiefs defensive/specialteams TD +500 = .25 unit
-Who will throw first TD in game: Purdy +100 = 1 unit
-Both Teams to Score 20 points:YES -110 = 1 unit
-Will there be a lead change in 2nd half?:YES +125 = 1 unit
-KC Win Margin from 1-6 points +325 = .5 unit
-Kyle Juszyk under ½ receptions +130 = 1 unit
-I Pacheco under 3½ receptions +130 = 1 unit
-Result of KC first drive FG attempt +300 = .5 unit
-Kelce Recpt yds 70over -110 = 1 unit
-Kelce anytime td -130 = 1 unit
-RRice(kc) anytime td +100 = 1 unit
-Kelce Recept yds 100over AND Purdy 300+ pass yds +1200 = .25 unit
If I anticipate a 27-26 KC win, then trying to make semblence of a game plan on who may do what. some of the popular long shots like Will there be overtime, or safety that i have done in past are not worth the occurence factor of these unoccuring (last safety in sbowl was 2013). The both teams scoring 20 or more points each actually allows us to bet hypothetically 40over at just -110. More value lies with unders in props , so looking at a few with the Juszyk and Pacheco receptions. A safer play on the lead change in second half at +125 is safer than my first hunch in taking a stab at 4th quarter (+245). Scoring first td in the game between a multitude of players is usually deceiving, as to you will want to put multiple players on your prop list, but only one player will win, so you're just hedging blindly on these. Instead of randomly hoping on first td props, you can go with Purdy passing for a TD before Mahomes will, and you are getting no vig. My "lotto" chance will be looking at Kelce and Purdy having great games (I do like the game to have plenty of scoring), and can't pass this up for +1200. I may also correlate this with a Purdy (and Mahomes) completion or yardage prop if i decide to put more props in the portfolio before gametime.
-HButker 1½ fieldgoals OVER -110 = 1 unit
-BAiyuk(sf) anytime TD +140 = 1 unit
-GKittle anytime TD +140 = 1 unit
-N Gray anytime TD +700 = .25 unit
-PMahomes anytime TD +300 = .5 unit
-KC Chiefs defensive/specialteams TD +500 = .25 unit
-Who will throw first TD in game: Purdy +100 = 1 unit
-Both Teams to Score 20 points:YES -110 = 1 unit
-Will there be a lead change in 2nd half?:YES +125 = 1 unit
-KC Win Margin from 1-6 points +325 = .5 unit
-Kyle Juszyk under ½ receptions +130 = 1 unit
-I Pacheco under 3½ receptions +130 = 1 unit
-Result of KC first drive FG attempt +300 = .5 unit
-Kelce Recpt yds 70over -110 = 1 unit
-Kelce anytime td -130 = 1 unit
-RRice(kc) anytime td +100 = 1 unit
-Kelce Recept yds 100over AND Purdy 300+ pass yds +1200 = .25 unit
If I anticipate a 27-26 KC win, then trying to make semblence of a game plan on who may do what. some of the popular long shots like Will there be overtime, or safety that i have done in past are not worth the occurence factor of these unoccuring (last safety in sbowl was 2013). The both teams scoring 20 or more points each actually allows us to bet hypothetically 40over at just -110. More value lies with unders in props , so looking at a few with the Juszyk and Pacheco receptions. A safer play on the lead change in second half at +125 is safer than my first hunch in taking a stab at 4th quarter (+245). Scoring first td in the game between a multitude of players is usually deceiving, as to you will want to put multiple players on your prop list, but only one player will win, so you're just hedging blindly on these. Instead of randomly hoping on first td props, you can go with Purdy passing for a TD before Mahomes will, and you are getting no vig. My "lotto" chance will be looking at Kelce and Purdy having great games (I do like the game to have plenty of scoring), and can't pass this up for +1200. I may also correlate this with a Purdy (and Mahomes) completion or yardage prop if i decide to put more props in the portfolio before gametime.
