$20 Win per selection. Best value I could find vs. morning line in each race - nothing shorter than 5-1. Happy New Year!
GP
R1 - #4 Purecrazigroove (20-1) first timer whose works don't really get the heart pumping, thereby guaranteeing big odds, but his dam is 2 for 2 with her starters and the sire is known for "win-early" offspring. Full disclosure - I think the #8 romps here, but at odds-on I'd rather take a flyer with this one on debut.
R2 - #4 Frisson (20-1) looks to be the clear speed of the race. I would be even more excited about this one except Junior on turf gives me stomach cramps. I just know he'll give it up in the stretch, but at 20-1 or better I can't help myself.
R3 - #2 First Coast Storm (15-1) is a reach for sure, but I'm hoping the mile on grass debacle will serve to wake him up. Drop in class while returning to what is probably his preferred surface gives me hope.
R4 - no pick here, unless you want to put the mortgage on #2 Mannix at even money. Lock-a-rama.
R5 - #4 Homer Jones (20-1) Jorge Ruiz is an underappreciated turf rider whose mounts on grass are always worth taking a second look. This one's sire isn't a particularly good grass sire, but the dam side screams potential. I was once told by an old-time handicapper to look for Kingmambo on the dam side when a 2 or 3 year old makes their first start on turf. I feel like Tribal Rule fits that same angle. Probably moot - the favorite looks pretty damn tough.
R6 - #3 Luna Love (5-1) Sano not known for having them ready first out, however I like that Zayas takes the mount. Zayas/Sano click at over 20% together and Edgard has been scorching hot lately.
R7 - #7 Lady Arsinoe (6-1) has never tried the Tapeta, but if she takes to it could be the only danger to #1 Sand and Sea.
R8 - #3 Choose Joy (8-1) loves this turf course. I feel a photo finish with the #10.
R9 - #7 Holiday Pay (5-1) Saffie has been pushing him in the AM (46.2 on Christmas Eve). Call me crazy but this guy might be a future stakes winner. Regardless of today's effort, he's going on my watch list.
R10 - #7 Crispy Cat (20-1) won a stakes race on this course back in March and reunites with Irish jockey Egan, who rode him in England last fall. Wire to wire?
AQU
R1 - #5 City Blocks (12-1) didn't break smoothly in her debut and went to the bench for 90 days, but has continued with a steady and consistent work pattern. Gets a talented apprentice today and a fast track should also help.
R2 - #1 Bustin Hot (8-1) has burned a lot of money since the switch to Rudy Rod's barn, but the class drop and drawing the friendly rail should be just what the doctor ordered.
R3 - #8 Vintage (8-1) I have no idea what happened in last. Needed the race? Incompetent jock went way too fast? I mean, 45.2 at this level? Drops 4.5 pounds today - things can only get better.
R4 - #3 Mia Bea Star (20-1) can't overstate the importance of this barn change. Blinkers come off - 30% angle for Levine. Jockey upgrade. Lots to like.
R5 - #1 Timing Difference (10-1) when's the last time you saw a Chad Brown maiden entry at 10-1? This one finished well after a horrid start in first try. I expect a big improvement.
R6 - #5 Saffa's Day (8-1) does his best work fresh and he's had 5 months to prepare for this one. Wide open race.
R7 - #2 Salute To America (8-1) last year at this time he ran second time off the bench at a mile at Aqueduct and sported a 26 point Beyer improvement. Is it fair to say he needs a race? Same situation - same result?
R8 - #4 Crupi (8-1) has been just dandy as long as he stays out of graded stakes. Fits nicely with these but the race looks like it could belong to anybody.
R9 - #10 Proud Foot (5-1) hard to believe this is the first Franco mount I've landed on today. Improved greatly in first try for Dutrow - ceiling could be even higher.
GP
R1 - #4 Purecrazigroove (20-1) first timer whose works don't really get the heart pumping, thereby guaranteeing big odds, but his dam is 2 for 2 with her starters and the sire is known for "win-early" offspring. Full disclosure - I think the #8 romps here, but at odds-on I'd rather take a flyer with this one on debut.
R2 - #4 Frisson (20-1) looks to be the clear speed of the race. I would be even more excited about this one except Junior on turf gives me stomach cramps. I just know he'll give it up in the stretch, but at 20-1 or better I can't help myself.
R3 - #2 First Coast Storm (15-1) is a reach for sure, but I'm hoping the mile on grass debacle will serve to wake him up. Drop in class while returning to what is probably his preferred surface gives me hope.
R4 - no pick here, unless you want to put the mortgage on #2 Mannix at even money. Lock-a-rama.
R5 - #4 Homer Jones (20-1) Jorge Ruiz is an underappreciated turf rider whose mounts on grass are always worth taking a second look. This one's sire isn't a particularly good grass sire, but the dam side screams potential. I was once told by an old-time handicapper to look for Kingmambo on the dam side when a 2 or 3 year old makes their first start on turf. I feel like Tribal Rule fits that same angle. Probably moot - the favorite looks pretty damn tough.
R6 - #3 Luna Love (5-1) Sano not known for having them ready first out, however I like that Zayas takes the mount. Zayas/Sano click at over 20% together and Edgard has been scorching hot lately.
R7 - #7 Lady Arsinoe (6-1) has never tried the Tapeta, but if she takes to it could be the only danger to #1 Sand and Sea.
R8 - #3 Choose Joy (8-1) loves this turf course. I feel a photo finish with the #10.
R9 - #7 Holiday Pay (5-1) Saffie has been pushing him in the AM (46.2 on Christmas Eve). Call me crazy but this guy might be a future stakes winner. Regardless of today's effort, he's going on my watch list.
R10 - #7 Crispy Cat (20-1) won a stakes race on this course back in March and reunites with Irish jockey Egan, who rode him in England last fall. Wire to wire?
AQU
R1 - #5 City Blocks (12-1) didn't break smoothly in her debut and went to the bench for 90 days, but has continued with a steady and consistent work pattern. Gets a talented apprentice today and a fast track should also help.
R2 - #1 Bustin Hot (8-1) has burned a lot of money since the switch to Rudy Rod's barn, but the class drop and drawing the friendly rail should be just what the doctor ordered.
R3 - #8 Vintage (8-1) I have no idea what happened in last. Needed the race? Incompetent jock went way too fast? I mean, 45.2 at this level? Drops 4.5 pounds today - things can only get better.
R4 - #3 Mia Bea Star (20-1) can't overstate the importance of this barn change. Blinkers come off - 30% angle for Levine. Jockey upgrade. Lots to like.
R5 - #1 Timing Difference (10-1) when's the last time you saw a Chad Brown maiden entry at 10-1? This one finished well after a horrid start in first try. I expect a big improvement.
R6 - #5 Saffa's Day (8-1) does his best work fresh and he's had 5 months to prepare for this one. Wide open race.
R7 - #2 Salute To America (8-1) last year at this time he ran second time off the bench at a mile at Aqueduct and sported a 26 point Beyer improvement. Is it fair to say he needs a race? Same situation - same result?
R8 - #4 Crupi (8-1) has been just dandy as long as he stays out of graded stakes. Fits nicely with these but the race looks like it could belong to anybody.
R9 - #10 Proud Foot (5-1) hard to believe this is the first Franco mount I've landed on today. Improved greatly in first try for Dutrow - ceiling could be even higher.
