Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.6:30 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers (-2, 47.5)
The Chiefs (14-6) are the 3-seed and just beat the Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship game, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (14-5) are the 1-seed and took down the Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship game but failed to cover as 7-point home favorites.This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. As soon as the line opened two weeks ago, the immediate flow of money grabbed the Chiefs plus the points, dropping the line from 49ers -2.5 to -1. Early on, it looked as though the line would fall to a pick’em or even hop the fence and go to the Chiefs as a small favorite. However, we saw respected resistance on San Francisco when the the line bottomed out at -1, driving the 49ers back up to -2 where we sit on gameday. The public is all over the Chiefs, with 63% of bets and 65% of money on Kansas City plus the points.
Game day movement will be something to monitor, as late action is especially important because that’s when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. Do we see the line rise from 49ers -2 to -2.5, which would indicate late respected San Francisco money fading the trendy dog Chiefs? Or do we see the line fall from 49ers -2 to -1.5, which would signal late money backing Kansas City plus the points?
The Chiefs match several profitable betting systems. Most notably, Patrick Mahomes is 10-1 ATS (91%) as a dog. Andy Reid is 25-13 ATS (66%) as a dog as head coach of the Chiefs. Playoff dogs are 8-4 ATS (67%) this postseason and 51-34 ATS (60%) since 2017. Super Bowl dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%) over the past 20 years. The Chiefs are also in a prime teaser spot (+2 to +8), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. Teasing Super Bowl dogs up 6-points has gone 17-3 ATS (85%) over the past 20 years.
The total has remained relatively frozen at 47.5. Currently 62% of bets and 62% of dollars are taking the over. Once again, game day movement will be worth following to see if it falls down to 47 or rises up to 48. The under is 11-9 (55%) in the past twenty Super Bowls. Playoff unders are 41-32 (56%) since 2018. When the total is 47 or more, playoff unders are 28-17 (62%) since 2018. The Chiefs are 14-6 (70%) to the under this season.
Super Bowl Props to Consider
Longest Kickoff Return Under 27.5 yards (-170)We’ve seen the under juice move from -150 to -170 over the past 24-hours. The game will be played indoors in an controlled environment devoid or weather, which provides perfect conditions for both kickers to boot it into the endzone, resulting in touchbacks. Both teams rank in the top 12 in average kickoff return yardage allowed (roughly 21 yards for both teams).
Travis Kelce Over 69.5 receiving yards (-120)
Kelce has gone over this number in all three games this postseason. He had 71 yards against Miami, 75 yards against Buffalo and 116 against Baltimore. He has been targeted 27 times this postseason, the most of any player on the Chiefs. Kelce has averaged 98.2 receiving yards in his last 12 postseason games. San Francisco just gave up 97 yards to Detroit’s tight end Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship game.
Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards (-125)
This is a buy-low play on Pacheco, who has seen his rushing yards fall from 68.5 to 66.5. Pacheco has gone over this number in all three games this postseason. He had 89 yards against Miami, 97 yards against Buffalo and 68 yards against Baltimore. Pacheco has dealt with injuries during the postseason, so one would expect the two week break to be a major benefit. San Francisco has been gashed in the running game this postseason, giving up 136 rushing yards to Green Bay and 182 rushing yards to Detroit.
